Ticker Options Intelligence

COST options intelligence

Costco Wholesale Corp options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 40 Market data through 13 Aug 2026 Checked 13 Aug 2026 21:02 · partial chain

Put-side pressure

Bearish pressure

COST currently carries bearish options pressure with a 40/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 1.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.16.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bearish

Put-side pressure

Expected move 1.5%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.16

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 1.30

Put-side skew

Trend fit 79

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop -0.4%

RS -13.2

Expected move 1.5%
Put-call volume 1.30
Volume / OI 0.16
Reference IV 0.19
Max pain 945.00
Underlying 947.82
Nearest expiry 14 Aug 2026
Contracts 2000

Research Brief

COST has a bearish chain read with 40/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 933.83–961.81; The largest call open-interest concentration is 1000.00; the largest put concentration is 770.00. The most active strike by current volume is 960.00.

Priced range933.83–961.81
Call concentration1000.00
Put concentration770.00
Max pain reference945.00
What would confirm it
  • Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 14 Aug

Options imply 933.83 to 961.81. Max pain at 945.00 sits inside that range, 0.3% below spot.

Spot Max pain
933.83947.82 ± 13.99961.81
Confirmation level

A close beyond 961.81 or below 933.83 at the 14 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 40/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 18/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure18 × 42%
+7.6

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation44 × 22%
+9.6

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement79 × 26%
+20.6

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility19 × 10%
+1.9

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score39.7Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 1000.00; the largest put concentration is 770.00. The most active strike by current volume is 960.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
853
590.00-37.8%
1
994
640.00-32.5%
0
336
670.00-29.3%
0
1516
770.00-18.8%
0
878
780.00-17.7%
0
805
790.00-16.7%
0
530
900.00-5.0%
31
637
915.00-3.5%
68
573
920.00-2.9%
45
516
925.00-2.4%
209
329
945.00-0.3%
189
147
950.000.2%
789
180
960.001.3%
1011
69
970.002.3%
393
226
975.002.9%
489
1
1000.005.5%
1212
0
1100.0016.1%
852
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Balanced gamma proxy

Model-estimated Greeks · 99% coverage

Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.

Net profile-$21.8MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak950.00+$39.0M
Negative peak900.00-$22.9M
Nearest balance947.57Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
922.50-2.7%
-$1.4M
925.00-2.4%
-$10.5M
927.50-2.1%
-$2.4M
930.00-1.9%
-$12.2M
932.50-1.6%
-$5.4M
935.00-1.4%
-$11.0M
937.50-1.1%
-$2.2M
940.00-0.8%
-$3.7M
942.50-0.6%
+$3.1M
945.00-0.3%
-$4.2M
947.500.0%
-$1.1M
950.000.2%
+$39.0M
952.500.5%
+$3.7M
955.000.8%
+$6.8M
957.501.0%
+$2.5M
960.001.3%
+$22.1M
962.501.5%
+$1.3M
965.001.8%
+$2.1M
967.502.1%
+$853,641
970.002.3%
+$17.0M
972.502.6%
+$20,014
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Back-loaded volatility

0.74× front/back

Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.

0.19 14 Aug 1d
0.21 21 Aug 8d
0.14 28 Aug 15d
0.22 4 Sep 22d
0.22 11 Sep 29d
0.21 18 Sep 36d
0.26 25 Sep 43d
0.24 16 Oct 64d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

760
790
815
835
860
880
900
918
928
940
950
960
973
983
1005
1025
1045
1070
1090
1115
1135
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

6 matured · 5 directional

Across 5 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 80% of the time.

Directional follow-through80%
Moves contained by pricing100%
Average expiry move0.7%
6 Aug Bearish · 46 -0.4% through expiry 1.1% priced · v2.0
5 Aug Mixed · 39 -0.4% through expiry 2.1% priced · v2.0
4 Aug Bearish · 44 -0.4% through expiry 2.1% priced · v2.0
3 Aug Bearish · 50 -0.4% through expiry 2.4% priced · v2.0
31 Jul Bearish · 54 -0.4% through expiry 2.6% priced · v2.0
30 Jul Bearish · 51 1.8% through expiry 2.2% priced · v2.0

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Good

B79/100
Retained chain80%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Retained chain subset
Market date
13 Aug 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
2000 / 2505
  • 80% of provider contracts were retained for this snapshot.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Put-heavy activity

58/100
Primary intent Put-heavy activity

Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.

Flow vs price divergence Bearish flow before price confirmation

Put-side pressure is present before a decisive weekly price breakdown.

Why this matters

Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $87.6M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 22-45 days · itm, and a bearish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-18
1W price-0.4%
Call premium69%
Put premium31%
Notional split C 69% / P 31% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.16 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 79/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM calls cluster with 758 contracts traded, $26.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 30% of visible notional.
$26.1M
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 746 contracts traded, $16.0M estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$16.0M
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 438 contracts traded, $10.2M estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$10.2M
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 1667 contracts traded, $5.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$5.1M
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 328 contracts traded, $4.4M estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$4.4M

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Activity Anomaly

Normal range

31

Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.

Baseline: 12 completed sessions

Volume rank58th
Volume/OI rank33th
IV rank0th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close947.82
1W-0.4%
RS-13.2
Fair value+10.1%
Options pressure-18
Speculation44
Volatility19
Trend fit79

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 1.5% muted
30d avg 2.3% · 12 sessions 17th
90d avg - · 12/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 12/60 sessions -
IV 0.19 muted
30d avg 0.26 · 12 sessions 0th
90d avg - · 12/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 12/60 sessions -
Put-call 1.30 near normal
30d avg 1.60 · 12 sessions 25th
90d avg - · 12/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 12/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.16 near normal
30d avg 0.18 · 12 sessions 33th
90d avg - · 12/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 12/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
5 Aug 18:40 Bearish
Pressure -18
Move 2.1%
5 Aug 21:20 Mixed
Pressure -15
Move 2.1%
6 Aug 15:40 Mixed
Pressure -13
Move 2.2%
6 Aug 17:10 Bearish
Pressure -22
Move 1.4%
6 Aug 18:40 Bearish
Pressure -22
Move 1.2%
7 Aug 00:22 Bearish
Pressure -26
Move 1.1%
7 Aug 14:40 Bearish
Pressure -24
Move 0.8%
7 Aug 16:00 Bearish
Pressure -19
Move 0.8%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike540.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 1 · OI 221
Strike550.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 135
Strike560.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 111 · OI 239
Strike570.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 11 · OI 284
Strike580.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 732
Strike590.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 4 · OI 853
Strike600.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 698
Strike610.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 21 · OI 456

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts194
Avg IV0.19
Put-call0.87
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts212
Avg IV0.21
Put-call0.86
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts157
Avg IV0.14
Put-call5.17
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts148
Avg IV0.22
Put-call1.66
Expiry11 Sep 2026
Contracts137
Avg IV0.22
Put-call2.10

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
14 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.22
Put IV0.37
Skew0.15
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.21
Put IV0.23
Skew0.02
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.21
Put IV0.22
Skew0.01
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.22
Put IV0.21
Skew0.00
11 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.22
Put IV0.21
Skew0.00

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractCOST260828P00947500
SidePut
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike947.50
Volume-
OI-
IV-
ContractCOST260828P00942500
SidePut
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike942.50
Volume-
OI-
IV-
ContractCOST260828P00957500
SidePut
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike957.50
Volume-
OI-
IV-
ContractCOST260828P00952500
SidePut
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike952.50
Volume-
OI-
IV-
ContractCOST260828P00937500
SidePut
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike937.50
Volume-
OI-
IV-
ContractCOST260828P00927500
SidePut
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike927.50
Volume-
OI-
IV-
ContractCOST260904P00680000
SidePut
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Strike680.00
Volume-
OI-
IV-
ContractCOST260911P00680000
SidePut
Expiry11 Sep 2026
Strike680.00
Volume-
OI201
IV0.67

Evidence context