- No strong opportunity cluster is confirmed yet; monitor trend and activity pressure.
ARCO
NYSE
Week ended 31 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc · Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Latest close
8.17 USD
-0.6%
latest week
Weekly setup
Weak trend
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -1.8% below the Trend Line and sits at 54.0% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -0.6%, after a -0.7% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks strongly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers. Options positioning is volatility with 61/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 55/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 10d.
Setup score
39
out of 100
Latest Close
8.17 USD
31 Jul 2026
1W Return
-0.6%
latest completed week
4W Return
-0.7%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-8.7%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
53.8%
28 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.8x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-0.6%
Latest completed week; four-week move -0.7%.
Indicator stack
30/21
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Options pressure
Volatility
61/100 conviction; expected move 10.9%.
News sentiment
55/100
56 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
10d
Next report is scheduled for 12 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -1.8% below the Trend Line and sits at 54.0% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -0.6%, after a -0.7% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.8x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.4112-week average 0.62
12-week confirmation
Trend active10/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure2/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership5/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.41Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -0.7% over four weeks, -8.7% over 12 weeks, and 28.2% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year28
Trend breadth53.8%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.92Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-149.5%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-2.93Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-45.5%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks strongly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers.
Factor week 26 Jul 2026
Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026
Field coverage 100%
Model confidence 96%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength88/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 13; rank 1 is best.
Value94/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 7; rank 1 is best.
Quality35/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 66; rank 1 is best.
Momentum69/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 32; rank 1 is best.
Growth83/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 18; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework82/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 7.4x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 0.4x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 5.9x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 15.2% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 12.2% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 8.6% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 11.6% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 9.6% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 7.9% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- 74.6% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- -3.4% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 6/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 3.2% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 0.0% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 3.2% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 3.1x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningVolatility
ARCO shows volatility options pressure with a 61/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.01, expected move of 10.9%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Conviction61/100
Expected move10.9%
Put/call volume0.01
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment55/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 56 relevant articles.
15 positive · 39 neutral · 2 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings10dNext report is scheduled for 12 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move10.9%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-15.5%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility4.7%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
6 Feb
6 Mar
3 Apr
1 May
29 May
26 Jun
31 Jul
Weeks higher11 of 2615 weeks finished lower.
Best week+7.7%Week of 12 Jun.
Worst week-9.9%Week of 15 May.
Latest week-0.6%Week of 31 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains7
Modest gains4
Flat weeks0
Modest losses11
Sharp losses4
Recent vol4.7%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol4.2%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split24/27Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew4.4% / -2.8%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Consumer Cyclical
4-week rank- / 100
Group average1.4%
Trend breadth37.0%
Trend37.0%active weekly trend signals
MD54.0%positive activity pressure
RS34.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Restaurants
4-week rank20 / 51
Group average-4.9%
Trend breadth37.3%
Trend37.3%active weekly trend signals
MD62.7%positive activity pressure
RS29.4%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape39/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 39/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis48/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 10/12, activity pressure 2/12, relative leadership 5/12.
Activity pressure 0.41; No reversal markers Factors70/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 62; Small Cap Core rank 8 SVQF82/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 184.5 of 1013 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options38/100ARCO shows volatility options pressure with a 61/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.01, expected move of 10.9%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 10.9% Sentiment55/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 56 relevant articles.
ARCO|Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc|Price:8.179|Chg%:-0.101 Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings10dNext report is scheduled for 12 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | 8.17 USD | -0.6% | 8.32 USD | 8.48 USD | -0.92 | -2.93 | 4.8M | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 8.22 USD | -0.1% | 8.29 USD | 8.49 USD | -0.85 | -1.17 | 5.3M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 8.23 USD | -2.7% | 8.26 USD | 8.51 USD | -0.71 | -1.64 | 5.4M | On |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 8.46 USD | 2.8% | 8.22 USD | 8.52 USD | -0.56 | -0.51 | 11.9M | On |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 8.23 USD | -1.2% | 8.18 USD | 8.52 USD | -0.37 | -2.02 | 5.0M | On |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 8.33 USD | -1.8% | 8.15 USD | 8.53 USD | -0.35 | 1.09 | 5.3M | On |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 8.48 USD | -3.2% | 8.12 USD | 8.54 USD | -0.27 | 0.27 | 3.8M | On |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 8.76 USD | 7.7% | 8.07 USD | 8.54 USD | -0.08 | 4.33 | 8.9M | On |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 8.13 USD | -5.7% | 8.02 USD | 8.54 USD | -0.38 | -2.66 | 5.5M | On |
| 29 May 2026 | 8.63 USD | -0.6% | 7.98 USD | 8.54 USD | -0.09 | 0.47 | 5.9M | On |
| 22 May 2026 | 8.68 USD | 7.6% | 7.93 USD | 8.54 USD | 0.04 | 2.37 | 10.0M | On |
| 15 May 2026 | 8.06 USD | -9.9% | 7.88 USD | 8.54 USD | 0.27 | -4.18 | 4.5M | On |
| 8 May 2026 | 8.94 USD | 2.7% | 7.84 USD | 8.54 USD | 0.55 | 6.25 | 6.1M | On |
| 1 May 2026 | 8.71 USD | -4.9% | 7.76 USD | 8.53 USD | 0.47 | 5.54 | 5.4M | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.