MCD NYSE Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

McDonald’s Corporation · Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

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Latest close 270.6 USD
2.2% latest week
Weekly setup

Weak trend

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -8.5% below the Trend Line and sits at 12.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 2.2%, after a -3.6% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is bullish with 35/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 42/100. Near-term considerations: earnings are due in 3d.

Setup score 34 out of 100
Latest Close 270.6 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return 2.2% latest completed week
4W Return -3.6% short-term follow-through
12W Return -1.2% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 38.5% 20 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.0x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • No strong opportunity cluster is confirmed yet; monitor trend and activity pressure.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
  • Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
  • Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 2.2% Latest completed week; four-week move -3.6%. Indicator stack 21/43 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Options pressure Bullish 35/100 conviction; expected move 4.3%. News sentiment 42/100 6 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 3d Next report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -8.5% below the Trend Line and sits at 12.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 2.2%, after a -3.6% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.0x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.0412-week average 0.13

12-week confirmation

Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.04Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -3.6% over four weeks, -1.2% over 12 weeks, and -8.5% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W2.2%
4W-3.6%
12W-1.2%
26W-13.0%
52W-8.5%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year20
Trend breadth38.5%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.51Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change28.7%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-16.93Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-11.0%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 94% Model confidence 90%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength20/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 81; rank 1 is best.
Value23/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 78; rank 1 is best.
Quality76/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 25; rank 1 is best.
Momentum22/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 79; rank 1 is best.
Growth34/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 67; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Value-quality framework50/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
21.7x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
6.9x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
16.2x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
5.8%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
57.4%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
46.3%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
51.1%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
18.9%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
6.8%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
6.3%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
14.4%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
6/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
2.8%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
0.9%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
3.7%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
3.6x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningBullish

MCD shows bullish options pressure with a 35/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.72, expected move of 4.3%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Conviction35/100
Expected move4.3%
Put/call volume0.72
Pressure20
Speculation42
Volatility41
Trend agreement49
Open options detail
Insider activity5 / 9

5 acquisitions and 9 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment42/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 6 relevant articles.

0 positive · 4 neutral · 2 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings3dNext report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move4.3%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-19.8%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility2.3%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher12 of 2614 weeks finished lower.
Best week+4.0%Week of 3 Jul.
Worst week-5.4%Week of 20 Mar.
Latest week+2.2%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains1
Modest gains11
Flat weeks0
Modest losses12
Sharp losses2
Recent vol2.3%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol2.2%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split28/24Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew1.5% / -2.0%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape32/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 32/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis9/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 0/12, relative leadership 0/12.

Activity pressure 0.04; No reversal markers Factors35/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 31 SVQF50/100

Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Composite rank 505.0 of 1013 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options53/100

MCD shows bullish options pressure with a 35/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.72, expected move of 4.3%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Bullish · Call-side pressure · Expected move 4.3% Sentiment42/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 6 relevant articles.

McDonald's stays below 200-week moving average for longest stretch since 2003, Barchart says (MCD:NYSE) Insiders5 / 9

5 acquisitions and 9 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings3d

Next report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.

 Research flow1 items

0 recent research articles and 1 Market Watch posts are available.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 2026270.6 USD2.2%295.7 USD282.3 USD-0.51-16.9322.8MOff
24 Jul 2026264.8 USD-1.1%296.7 USD282.2 USD-0.59-18.2720.6MOff
17 Jul 2026267.7 USD-2.5%298.1 USD282.3 USD-0.56-18.2222.6MOff
10 Jul 2026274.6 USD-2.1%299.5 USD282.3 USD-0.67-17.8021.8MOff
3 Jul 2026280.6 USD4.0%300.8 USD282.3 USD-0.72-15.2520.1MOff
26 Jun 2026269.8 USD-3.2%301.7 USD282.3 USD-0.82-17.0827.0MOff
19 Jun 2026278.6 USD-2.2%302.9 USD282.3 USD-0.92-16.7520.0MOff
12 Jun 2026284.8 USD1.8%303.8 USD282.3 USD-0.91-14.4922.0MOff
5 Jun 2026279.8 USD0.9%304.3 USD282.2 USD-0.97-15.9222.8MOff
29 May 2026277.3 USD-1.1%304.8 USD282.1 USD-0.97-19.1917.1MOff
22 May 2026280.4 USD2.1%305.3 USD282.1 USD-0.88-17.6620.2MOff
15 May 2026274.5 USD0.2%306.0 USD282.0 USD-0.90-19.2121.0MOff
8 May 2026273.9 USD-3.8%306.9 USD282.0 USD-0.83-19.7525.2MOff
1 May 2026284.7 USD-4.2%307.5 USD282.0 USD-0.86-15.2320.5MOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.