AA NYSE Week ended 24 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Alcoa Corp · Basic Materials · Aluminum

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Latest close 44.24 USD
0.6% latest week
Weekly setup

Weak trend

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -27.5% below the Trend Line and sits at 29.0% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 0.6%, after a -18.2% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers. Options positioning is bullish with 36/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 48/100. Near-term considerations: earnings are due in 77d.

Setup score 27 out of 100
Latest Close 44.24 USD 24 Jul 2026
1W Return 0.6% latest completed week
4W Return -18.2% short-term follow-through
12W Return -29.3% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 80.8% 42 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.0x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
  • Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
  • 2 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 0.6% Latest completed week; four-week move -18.2%. Indicator stack 44/23 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Options pressure Bullish 36/100 conviction; expected move 4.6%. News sentiment 48/100 64 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 77d Next report is scheduled for 15 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -27.5% below the Trend Line and sits at 29.0% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 0.6%, after a -18.2% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.0x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan 6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.5012-week average 0.74

12-week confirmation

Trend active8/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure1/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership8/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.50Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers22 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 2 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -18.2% over four weeks, -29.3% over 12 weeks, and 44.8% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W0.6%
4W-18.2%
12W-29.3%
26W-28.7%
52W44.8%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year42
Trend breadth80.8%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-1.01Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-111.7%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-18.73Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-981.6%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025 Field coverage 100% Model confidence 100%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength90/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 11; rank 1 is best.
Value92/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 9; rank 1 is best.
Quality30/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 71; rank 1 is best.
Momentum87/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 14; rank 1 is best.
Growth36/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 65; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Value-quality framework79/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
9.1x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
0.9x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
6.3x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
13.9%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
18.8%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
9.8%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
12.9%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
12.2%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
3.1%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
27.2%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
5.4%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
6/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
0.9%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
0.0%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
0.9%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
0.4x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningBullish

AA shows bullish options pressure with a 36/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.52, expected move of 4.6%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Conviction36/100
Expected move4.6%
Put/call volume0.52
Pressure33
Speculation42
Volatility64
Trend agreement24
Open options detail
Insider activity11 / 1

11 acquisitions and 1 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment48/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 64 relevant articles.

11 positive · 34 neutral · 19 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings77dNext report is scheduled for 15 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move4.6%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-47.6%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility7.6%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher13 of 2612 weeks finished lower.
Best week+22.5%Week of 3 Apr.
Worst week-13.7%Week of 19 Jun.
Latest week+0.6%Week of 24 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains5
Modest gains8
Flat weeks1
Modest losses2
Sharp losses10
Recent vol7.6%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol7.2%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split33/18Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew5.2% / -6.7%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape32/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 32/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis45/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 8/12, activity pressure 1/12, relative leadership 8/12.

Activity pressure 0.50; 2 reversal markers Factors73/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 61; Small Cap Core rank 18 SVQF79/100

Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Composite rank 214.0 of 1013 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options46/100

AA shows bullish options pressure with a 36/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.52, expected move of 4.6%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Bullish · Call-side pressure · Expected move 4.6% Sentiment48/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 64 relevant articles.

Insider Sell: Matthew Reed Sells Shares of Alcoa Corp (AA) Insiders11 / 1

11 acquisitions and 1 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings77d

Next report is scheduled for 15 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.

 Research flow1 items

0 recent research articles and 1 Market Watch posts are available.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
24 Jul 202644.24 USD0.6%60.98 USD38.41 USD-1.01-18.7326.1MOff
17 Jul 202643.98 USD-9.7%61.31 USD38.34 USD-0.95-19.4430.9MOff
10 Jul 202648.68 USD0.0%61.55 USD38.27 USD-0.92-11.9730.1MOff
3 Jul 202648.68 USD-10.0%61.46 USD38.17 USD-0.72-10.4239.3MOff
26 Jun 202654.10 USD-8.9%61.29 USD38.07 USD-0.482.1232.4MOn
19 Jun 202659.37 USD-13.7%60.87 USD37.93 USD-0.1810.2229.7MOn
12 Jun 202668.77 USD-4.3%60.10 USD37.75 USD0.0329.9922.9MOn
5 Jun 202671.89 USD-7.4%59.06 USD37.53 USD-0.1138.3425.2MOn
29 May 202677.64 USD8.8%57.90 USD37.29 USD-0.3547.7116.2MOn
22 May 202671.38 USD14.3%56.53 USD37.01 USD-0.6439.9822.4MOn
15 May 202662.43 USD-1.0%55.46 USD36.76 USD-0.7625.1726.0MOn
8 May 202663.08 USD0.9%54.57 USD36.58 USD-0.6828.0118.0MOn
1 May 202662.53 USD-5.1%53.63 USD36.40 USD-0.4831.3916.1MOn
24 Apr 202665.91 USD0.6%52.68 USD36.22 USD-0.2141.5020.6MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.