Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NASDAQ · Earnings Dossier
SMTC earnings intelligence
Semtech CorporationTechnology · Semiconductors · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Delivery and acceptance aligned
Results have usually cleared estimates and the next completed weekly close has, on average, confirmed the delivery.
Evidence99/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Monday 24 August 2026
Time unconfirmed · Fiscal period ending 31 Jul 2026
86event risk
High
Countdown11 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate0.41 USDprovider consensus
Estimate growth0.0%versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement14.2%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Market price is leading earnings power; the spread is widening and has persisted through 12 updates. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move464.2%2023-08-18 to 2026-08-07
Earnings move-8.5%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread-472.7 ptsWidening
Current multiple75.8xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure98/100Extreme
Model confidence81/100High
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Fundamental fracture
Earnings have weakened while price has not adjusted to the same degree.
Model qualification
The direction is sensitive to the comparison horizon.
Beat rate91.7%11 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise+86.5%median 11.5%
Delivery streak99 consecutive beats
Average response+8.3%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation64%same directional sign
Surprise variability179.5 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue growth14.2%year on year
Average surprise5.8%latest four quarters
SUE1.15standardised surprise
Net margin-3.0%trailing basis
Cash conversion-5.91xcash flow / net income
P/E-current snapshot
Data completeness86%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close139.42 USDcompleted week
13-week return14.5%price momentum
Fair-value gap153.3%price versus current fair value
Relative strength34.0exchange benchmark
Trend signalActiveweekly architecture
Next-week stateUndecided54.7%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period26 May 202630 Apr 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.51 / 0.45USD
Surprise+13.3%Beat
EPS growth+34.2%year on year
Revenue / growth291000000+15.9% · USD
Next close / four weeks-2.7% / +0.9%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period16 Mar 202631 Jan 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.44 / 0.44USD
Surprise+0.9%Beat
EPS growth+10.0%year on year
Revenue / growth274400000+9.3% · USD
Next close / four weeks-13.3% / +0.4%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period24 Nov 202531 Oct 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.48 / 0.45USD
Surprise+6.7%Beat
EPS growth+84.6%year on year
Revenue / growth266971000+12.7% · USD
Next close / four weeks+16.1% / +14.3%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period25 Aug 202531 Jul 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.41 / 0.40USD
Surprise+2.5%Beat
EPS growth+272.7%year on year
Revenue / growth257589000+19.6% · USD
Next close / four weeks+13.7% / +19.1%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period27 May 202530 Apr 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.38 / 0.37USD
Surprise+2.7%Beat
EPS growth+533.3%year on year
Revenue / growth251060000+21.8% · USD
Next close / four weeks+0.1% / +12.3%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period13 Mar 202531 Jan 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.40 / 0.32USD
Surprise+25.6%Beat
EPS growth+766.7%year on year
Revenue / growth251000000+30.1% · USD
Next close / four weeks+18.2% / -16.4%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period25 Nov 202431 Oct 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.26 / 0.23USD
Surprise+13.0%Beat
EPS growth+1200.0%year on year
Revenue / growth236825000+17.9% · USD
Next close / four weeks+25.8% / +24.9%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period27 Aug 202431 Jul 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.11 / 0.10USD
Surprise+10.0%Beat
EPS growth0.0%year on year
Revenue / growth215355000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+18.7% / +24.6%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period5 Jun 202430 Apr 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.06 / 0.01USD
Surprise+500.0%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth206105000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-19.8% / -23.2%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period28 Mar 202431 Jan 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-0.06 / -0.03USD
Surprise-100.0%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth192948000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+19.9% / +35.5%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period6 Dec 202331 Oct 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.02 / -0.15USD
Surprise+113.3%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth200899000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+19.1% / +30.3%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period13 Sep 202331 Jul 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.11 / 0.02USD
Surprise+450.0%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+3.2% / -6.4%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.