Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NYSE · Earnings Dossier
AAP earnings intelligence
Advance Auto Parts IncConsumer Cyclical · Auto Parts · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Mixed earnings transmission
Delivery and market response do not currently form a persistent directional pattern.
Evidence98/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Thursday 20 August 2026
Before the open · Fiscal period ending 30 Jun 2026
77event risk
High
Countdown8 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate0.81 USDprovider consensus
Estimate growth+17.4%versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement12.5%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Market price is leading earnings power; the spread is closing and has persisted through 12 updates. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move-12.5%2023-08-18 to 2026-08-07
Earnings move-68.2%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread-55.7 ptsClosing
Current multiple17.8xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure50/100Moderate
Model confidence84/100High
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Fundamental fracture
Earnings have weakened while price has not adjusted to the same degree.
Model qualification
The direction is sensitive to the comparison horizon.
Beat rate58.3%7 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise-30.1%median 5.2%
Delivery streak66 consecutive beats
Average response+0.4%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation64%same directional sign
Surprise variability124.2 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue growth-year on year
Average surprise57.0%latest four quarters
SUE0.32standardised surprise
Net margin0.5%trailing basis
Cash conversion4.68xcash flow / net income
P/E79.3xcurrent snapshot
Data completeness86%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close57.80 USDcompleted week
13-week return2.9%price momentum
Fair-value gap10.2%price versus current fair value
Relative strength-3.5exchange benchmark
Trend signalActiveweekly architecture
Next-week stateNegative43.1%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period21 May 202631 Mar 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.77 / 0.44USD
Surprise+75.0%Beat
EPS growth+450.0%year on year
Revenue / growth2614000000+1.2% · USD
Next close / four weeks+22.9% / +28.3%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period13 Feb 202631 Dec 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.86 / 0.41USD
Surprise+109.8%Beat
EPS growth+172.9%year on year
Revenue / growth1973000000-1.2% · USD
Next close / four weeks+1.0% / -9.0%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period30 Oct 202530 Sep 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.92 / 0.74USD
Surprise+24.3%Beat
EPS growth+2400.0%year on year
Revenue / growth2036000000-5.2% · USD
Next close / four weeks-13.6% / -5.2%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period14 Aug 202530 Jun 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.69 / 0.58USD
Surprise+19.0%Beat
EPS growth-8.0%year on year
Revenue / growth2010000000-7.7% · USD
Next close / four weeks-3.8% / +2.3%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period22 May 202531 Mar 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-0.22 / -0.69USD
Surprise+68.1%Beat
EPS growth-132.8%year on year
Revenue / growth2583000000-6.8% · USD
Next close / four weeks+38.9% / +38.4%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period26 Feb 202531 Dec 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-1.18 / -1.23USD
Surprise+4.1%Beat
EPS growth-100.0%year on year
Revenue / growth1996025000-19.0% · USD
Next close / four weeks-15.1% / -13.8%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period14 Nov 202430 Sep 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-0.04 / 0.44USD
Surprise-109.1%Miss
EPS growth+95.1%year on year
Revenue / growth2148000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-0.6% / +18.7%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period22 Aug 202430 Jun 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.75 / 0.94USD
Surprise-20.2%Miss
EPS growth-47.6%year on year
Revenue / growth2178000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-21.0% / -33.4%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period29 May 202431 Mar 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.67 / 0.63USD
Surprise+6.3%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth2772000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+1.5% / -5.5%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period28 Feb 202431 Dec 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-0.59 / 0.22USD
Surprise-368.2%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth2464869000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+13.4% / +40.4%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period15 Nov 202330 Sep 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-0.82 / 1.45USD
Surprise-156.6%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks-10.3% / +0.2%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period23 Aug 202330 Jun 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.43 / 1.66USD
Surprise-13.9%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks-8.2% / -14.3%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.