Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NYSE · Earnings Dossier
WDH earnings intelligence
Waterdrop Inc ADRFinancial Services · Insurance - Diversified · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Mixed earnings transmission
Delivery and market response do not currently form a persistent directional pattern.
Evidence97/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Thursday 3 September 2026
Time unconfirmed · Fiscal period ending 30 Jun 2026
62event risk
Elevated
Countdown21 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate-provider consensus
Estimate growth-versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement5.3%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Earnings power is leading market price; the spread is closing and has persisted through 8 updates. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move-32.4%2023-08-18 to 2026-08-07
Earnings move297.3%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread329.7 ptsClosing
Current multiple1.0xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure86/100Extreme
Model confidence83/100High
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Persistent earnings lead
Earnings power has led market price across several updates.
Business quality supportive
Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive.
Starting-base sensitivity
The three-year earnings move begins from an unusually depressed level; compare the shorter horizons before relying on its scale.
Model qualification
The three-year starting earnings level was unusually depressed.
Beat rate50.0%5 beats in 10 measured quarters
Average surprise-2.2%median 14.4%
Delivery streak22 consecutive beats
Average response-0.2%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation75%same directional sign
Surprise variability74.3 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth43.0%year on year
Revenue growth57.4%year on year
Average surprise9.6%latest four quarters
SUE-0.08standardised surprise
Net margin12.5%trailing basis
Cash conversion0.49xcash flow / net income
P/E0.6xcurrent snapshot
Data completeness100%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close1.00 USDcompleted week
13-week return-35.9%price momentum
Fair-value gap-23.5%price versus current fair value
Relative strength-45.2exchange benchmark
Trend signalInactiveweekly architecture
Next-week stateNegative43.1%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period16 Jun 202631 Mar 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.04 / -USD
Surprise-Unavailable
EPS growth-85.2%year on year
Revenue / growth1234734783+63.8% · USD
Next close / four weeks-11.4% / -17.1%completed weekly closes
ReadUnavailableresult versus price sign
Reported / period25 Mar 202631 Dec 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.06 / -USD
Surprise-Unavailable
EPS growth+105.7%year on year
Revenue / growth1391769854+102.6% · USD
Next close / four weeks-2.5% / +6.1%completed weekly closes
ReadUnavailableresult versus price sign
Reported / period3 Dec 202530 Sep 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.45 / 0.27USD
Surprise+66.7%Beat
EPS growth+32.4%year on year
Revenue / growth974860000+38.4% · USD
Next close / four weeks0.0% / +5.6%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period4 Sep 202530 Jun 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.41 / 0.25USD
Surprise+64.0%Beat
EPS growth+41.4%year on year
Revenue / growth837959000+23.9% · USD
Next close / four weeks+5.2% / +12.8%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period5 Jun 202531 Mar 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.26 / 0.28USD
Surprise-7.1%Miss
EPS growth+1200.0%year on year
Revenue / growth753694000+7.0% · USD
Next close / four weeks+1.7% / -8.3%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period12 Mar 202531 Dec 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.03 / 0.20USD
Surprise-85.0%Miss
EPS growth+38.2%year on year
Revenue / growth686824000+4.2% · USD
Next close / four weeks+10.2% / -2.4%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period11 Dec 202430 Sep 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.34 / 0.25USD
Surprise+36.0%Beat
EPS growth+1600.0%year on year
Revenue / growth704141000+2.6% · USD
Next close / four weeks+2.7% / +2.7%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period4 Sep 202430 Jun 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.29 / 0.20USD
Surprise+45.0%Beat
EPS growth+2800.0%year on year
Revenue / growth676156000-0.4% · USD
Next close / four weeks+4.8% / +12.4%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period29 Apr 202431 Mar 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.02 / 0.10USD
Surprise-80.0%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth704700000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-3.3% / +21.7%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period29 Feb 202431 Dec 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.02 / 0.01USD
Surprise+117.0%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth659364000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+4.9% / +4.9%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period7 Dec 202330 Sep 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.02 / 0.13USD
Surprise-84.6%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth686478000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+0.9% / -11.1%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period7 Sep 202330 Jun 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.01 / 0.17USD
Surprise-94.1%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth678700000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-15.8% / -26.6%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.