Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NYSE · Earnings Dossier
AES earnings intelligence
The AES CorporationUtilities · Utilities - Diversified · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Delivery strong, expectations demanding
Results have usually cleared estimates, but price has not consistently rewarded the delivery.
Evidence100/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Thursday 13 August 2026
Time unconfirmed · Fiscal period ending 30 Jun 2026
80event risk
High
Countdown0 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate-provider consensus
Estimate growth-versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement6.2%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Earnings power is leading market price; the spread is stable and has persisted through 11 updates. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move-6.3%2023-08-18 to 2026-08-07
Earnings move78.7%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread85.0 ptsStable
Current multiple5.3xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure67/100High
Model confidence98/100High
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Persistent earnings lead
Earnings power has led market price across several updates.
Business quality supportive
Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive.
Beat rate75.0%9 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise+20.1%median 11.0%
Delivery streak11 consecutive in-line reports
Average response-0.1%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation30%same directional sign
Surprise variability31.1 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth88.9%year on year
Revenue growth8.5%year on year
Average surprise32.2%latest four quarters
SUE0.53standardised surprise
Net margin14.6%trailing basis
Cash conversion6.18xcash flow / net income
P/E5.5xcurrent snapshot
Data completeness100%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close14.73 USDcompleted week
13-week return2.8%price momentum
Fair-value gap5.7%price versus current fair value
Relative strength-7.0exchange benchmark
Trend signalInactiveweekly architecture
Next-week stateUndecided52.9%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period30 Jul 202630 Jun 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.44 / 0.47USD
Surprise-0.1%In-Line
EPS growth-13.8%year on year
Revenue / growth3422000000+19.9% · USD
Next close / four weeks+0.1% / -completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period5 May 202631 Mar 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.77 / 0.37USD
Surprise+108.1%Beat
EPS growth+185.2%year on year
Revenue / growth3180000000+8.7% · USD
Next close / four weeks+0.4% / +2.7%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period2 Mar 202631 Dec 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.81 / 0.63USD
Surprise+29.4%Beat
EPS growth+50.0%year on year
Revenue / growth3101000000+4.7% · USD
Next close / four weeks-18.1% / -19.0%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period5 Nov 202530 Sep 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.75 / 0.77USD
Surprise-2.6%Miss
EPS growth+5.6%year on year
Revenue / growth3351000000+1.9% · USD
Next close / four weeks+1.9% / +1.4%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period31 Jul 202530 Jun 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.51 / 0.40USD
Surprise+27.5%Beat
EPS growth+34.2%year on year
Revenue / growth2855000000-3.0% · USD
Next close / four weeks-2.9% / -0.9%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period1 May 202531 Mar 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.27 / 0.33USD
Surprise-18.2%Miss
EPS growth-46.0%year on year
Revenue / growth2926000000-5.2% · USD
Next close / four weeks+3.1% / +1.2%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period28 Feb 202531 Dec 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.54 / 0.46USD
Surprise+16.6%Beat
EPS growth-26.0%year on year
Revenue / growth2962000000-0.2% · USD
Next close / four weeks+6.2% / +23.2%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period31 Oct 202430 Sep 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.71 / 0.64USD
Surprise+10.9%Beat
EPS growth+18.3%year on year
Revenue / growth3289000000-4.2% · USD
Next close / four weeks-12.2% / -22.2%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period1 Aug 202430 Jun 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.38 / 0.37USD
Surprise+2.7%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth2942000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-1.3% / +4.2%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period2 May 202431 Mar 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.50 / 0.34USD
Surprise+47.1%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth3085000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+9.5% / +22.7%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period26 Feb 202431 Dec 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.73 / 0.67USD
Surprise+9.0%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth2968000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-3.3% / +1.5%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period2 Nov 202330 Sep 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.60 / 0.54USD
Surprise+11.1%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth3434000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+15.1% / +16.1%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.