Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NASDAQ · Earnings Dossier
OLLI earnings intelligence
Ollie's Bargain Outlet HldgConsumer Defensive · Discount Stores · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Mixed earnings transmission
Delivery and market response do not currently form a persistent directional pattern.
Evidence99/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Thursday 27 August 2026
Time unconfirmed · Fiscal period ending 31 Jul 2026
45event risk
Elevated
Countdown14 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate1.15 USDprovider consensus
Estimate growth+16.2%versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement5.2%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Earnings power is leading market price; the spread is widening and has persisted through 4 updates. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move11.2%2023-08-18 to 2026-08-07
Earnings move110.4%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread99.2 ptsWidening
Current multiple20.2xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure76/100High
Model confidence100/100High
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Persistent earnings lead
Earnings power has led market price across several updates.
Business quality supportive
Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive.
Beat rate75.0%9 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise+5.0%median 5.1%
Delivery streak11 consecutive beats
Average response+0.4%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation60%same directional sign
Surprise variability4.8 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth24.1%year on year
Revenue growth16.7%year on year
Average surprise3.1%latest four quarters
SUE0.73standardised surprise
Net margin9.1%trailing basis
Cash conversion1.66xcash flow / net income
P/E19.8xcurrent snapshot
Data completeness100%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close81.64 USDcompleted week
13-week return-0.7%price momentum
Fair-value gap-16.2%price versus current fair value
Relative strength-32.7exchange benchmark
Trend signalInactiveweekly architecture
Next-week stateUndecided51.1%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period3 Jun 202630 Apr 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.91 / 0.87USD
Surprise+4.6%Beat
EPS growth+21.3%year on year
Revenue / growth658928000+14.2% · USD
Next close / four weeks-6.0% / -11.9%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period12 Mar 202631 Jan 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.39 / 1.41USD
Surprise-1.4%Miss
EPS growth+16.8%year on year
Revenue / growth779256000+16.8% · USD
Next close / four weeks+0.3% / -12.6%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period9 Dec 202531 Oct 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.75 / 0.73USD
Surprise+2.7%Beat
EPS growth+29.3%year on year
Revenue / growth613619000+18.6% · USD
Next close / four weeks-6.1% / -8.3%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period28 Aug 202531 Jul 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.99 / 0.93USD
Surprise+6.5%Beat
EPS growth+26.9%year on year
Revenue / growth679556000+17.5% · USD
Next close / four weeks-4.0% / +4.0%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period3 Jun 202530 Apr 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.75 / 0.71USD
Surprise+5.6%Beat
EPS growth+2.7%year on year
Revenue / growth576767000+13.4% · USD
Next close / four weeks+7.1% / +19.2%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period19 Mar 202531 Jan 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.19 / 1.19USD
Surprise-0.4%In-Line
EPS growth-3.3%year on year
Revenue / growth667084000+2.8% · USD
Next close / four weeks+4.3% / +11.6%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period10 Dec 202431 Oct 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.58 / 0.57USD
Surprise+1.8%Beat
EPS growth+13.7%year on year
Revenue / growth517428000+7.8% · USD
Next close / four weeks+11.1% / +5.0%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period29 Aug 202431 Jul 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.78 / 0.79USD
Surprise-1.3%Miss
EPS growth+16.4%year on year
Revenue / growth578375000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-9.4% / +0.1%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period5 Jun 202430 Apr 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.73 / 0.65USD
Surprise+12.3%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth508818000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+1.3% / +19.1%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period20 Mar 202431 Jan 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.23 / 1.16USD
Surprise+6.0%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth648949000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+5.6% / -3.4%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period6 Dec 202331 Oct 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.51 / 0.45USD
Surprise+13.3%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth480050000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-3.4% / +1.5%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period31 Aug 202331 Jul 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.67 / 0.61USD
Surprise+9.8%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+4.1% / +6.7%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.