Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NYSE · Earnings Dossier
FDX earnings intelligence
FedEx CorporationIndustrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Mixed earnings transmission
Delivery and market response do not currently form a persistent directional pattern.
Evidence99/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Monday 12 October 2026
Time unconfirmed · Fiscal period ending 31 Aug 2026
39event risk
Moderate
Countdown61 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate3.83 USDprovider consensus
Estimate growth0.0%versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement6.1%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Market price is leading earnings power; the spread is widening and has persisted through 2 updates. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move97.9%2023-08-18 to 2026-08-07
Earnings move35.0%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread-62.9 ptsWidening
Current multiple15.8xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure55/100Moderate
Model confidence100/100High
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Business quality supportive
Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive.
Expectations elevated
Price is leading delivered earnings power by a meaningful margin.
Beat rate75.0%9 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise+5.3%median 5.4%
Delivery streak55 consecutive beats
Average response+0.7%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation82%same directional sign
Surprise variability12.7 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth8.4%year on year
Revenue growth7.7%year on year
Average surprise13.9%latest four quarters
SUE0.30standardised surprise
Net margin4.7%trailing basis
Cash conversion2.87xcash flow / net income
P/E17.0xcurrent snapshot
Data completeness100%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close318.57 USDcompleted week
13-week return29.6%price momentum
Fair-value gap75.3%price versus current fair value
Relative strength28.9exchange benchmark
Trend signalActiveweekly architecture
Next-week stateUndecided52.3%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period23 Jun 202631 May 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate6.31 / 5.91USD
Surprise+6.8%Beat
EPS growth+4.0%year on year
Revenue / growth25007000000+12.5% · USD
Next close / four weeks-2.0% / -3.7%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period19 Mar 202628 Feb 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate5.25 / 4.18USD
Surprise+25.6%Beat
EPS growth+16.4%year on year
Revenue / growth24000000000+8.3% · USD
Next close / four weeks+2.0% / +6.4%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period18 Dec 202530 Nov 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate4.82 / 4.11USD
Surprise+17.3%Beat
EPS growth+19.0%year on year
Revenue / growth23469000000+6.8% · USD
Next close / four weeks+2.1% / +10.4%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period18 Sep 202531 Aug 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.83 / 3.61USD
Surprise+6.1%Beat
EPS growth+6.4%year on year
Revenue / growth22244000000+3.1% · USD
Next close / four weeks+1.0% / -2.1%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period24 Jun 202531 May 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate6.07 / 5.80USD
Surprise+4.7%Beat
EPS growth+12.2%year on year
Revenue / growth22220000000+0.5% · USD
Next close / four weeks+1.9% / +0.9%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period20 Mar 202528 Feb 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate4.51 / 4.63USD
Surprise-2.6%Miss
EPS growth+16.8%year on year
Revenue / growth22160000000+1.9% · USD
Next close / four weeks-4.9% / -14.2%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period19 Dec 202430 Nov 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate4.05 / 3.97USD
Surprise+2.0%Beat
EPS growth+1.5%year on year
Revenue / growth21967000000-0.9% · USD
Next close / four weeks-2.7% / -4.5%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period19 Sep 202431 Aug 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.60 / 4.77USD
Surprise-24.5%Miss
EPS growth-20.9%year on year
Revenue / growth21579000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-11.1% / -7.7%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period24 Jun 202431 May 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate5.41 / 5.37USD
Surprise+0.7%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth22109000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+18.8% / +21.4%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period21 Mar 202429 Feb 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.86 / 3.48USD
Surprise+10.9%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth21738000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+12.3% / +5.7%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period19 Dec 202330 Nov 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.99 / 4.20USD
Surprise-5.0%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth22165000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-11.8% / -11.6%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period19 Sep 202331 Aug 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate4.55 / 3.75USD
Surprise+21.3%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+2.8% / -4.4%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.