Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NYSE · Earnings Dossier
MS earnings intelligence
Morgan StanleyFinancial Services · Capital Markets · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Delivery and acceptance aligned
Results have usually cleared estimates and the next completed weekly close has, on average, confirmed the delivery.
Evidence100/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Wednesday 14 October 2026
Time unconfirmed · Fiscal period ending 30 Sep 2026
37event risk
Moderate
Countdown63 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate3.15 USDprovider consensus
Estimate growth+12.5%versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement5.4%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Market price is leading earnings power; the spread is widening and has persisted through 5 updates. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move177.7%2023-08-18 to 2026-08-07
Earnings move107.6%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread-70.2 ptsWidening
Current multiple17.5xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure69/100High
Model confidence95/100High
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Business quality supportive
Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive.
Expectations stretched
Price has moved materially faster than delivered earnings power.
Beat rate91.7%11 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise+14.4%median 15.6%
Delivery streak1010 consecutive beats
Average response+2.6%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation67%same directional sign
Surprise variability12.6 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth37.1%year on year
Revenue growth16.7%year on year
Average surprise18.8%latest four quarters
SUE2.05standardised surprise
Net margin16.0%trailing basis
Cash conversion-0.86xcash flow / net income
P/E16.8xcurrent snapshot
Data completeness100%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close216.33 USDcompleted week
13-week return12.0%price momentum
Fair-value gap70.2%price versus current fair value
Relative strength8.7exchange benchmark
Trend signalActiveweekly architecture
Next-week statePositive59.5%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period15 Jul 202630 Jun 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.46 / 2.89USD
Surprise+19.7%Beat
EPS growth+62.4%year on year
Revenue / growth34470000000+22.4% · USD
Next close / four weeks-3.1% / -2.1%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period15 Apr 202631 Mar 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.43 / 3.02USD
Surprise+13.6%Beat
EPS growth+31.9%year on year
Revenue / growth33150000000+18.8% · USD
Next close / four weeks+6.3% / +9.3%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period15 Jan 202631 Dec 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.68 / 2.45USD
Surprise+9.4%Beat
EPS growth+20.7%year on year
Revenue / growth28861000000+11.1% · USD
Next close / four weeks+1.5% / -2.9%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period15 Oct 202530 Sep 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.80 / 2.11USD
Surprise+32.7%Beat
EPS growth+48.9%year on year
Revenue / growth30048000000+14.1% · USD
Next close / four weeks+4.5% / +7.6%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period16 Jul 202530 Jun 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.13 / 1.98USD
Surprise+7.6%Beat
EPS growth+17.0%year on year
Revenue / growth28162000000+10.5% · USD
Next close / four weeks-1.0% / +1.3%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period11 Apr 202531 Mar 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.60 / 2.21USD
Surprise+17.6%Beat
EPS growth+28.7%year on year
Revenue / growth27912000000+10.1% · USD
Next close / four weeks+9.4% / +21.4%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period16 Jan 202531 Dec 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.22 / 1.69USD
Surprise+31.4%Beat
EPS growth+161.2%year on year
Revenue / growth25982000000+7.4% · USD
Next close / four weeks+11.7% / +14.1%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period16 Oct 202430 Sep 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.88 / 1.58USD
Surprise+19.0%Beat
EPS growth+36.2%year on year
Revenue / growth26328000000+16.7% · USD
Next close / four weeks+9.6% / +18.2%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period16 Jul 202430 Jun 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.82 / 1.65USD
Surprise+10.3%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth25486000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-1.9% / -8.2%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period16 Apr 202431 Mar 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.02 / 1.66USD
Surprise+21.7%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth25349000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+5.2% / +15.1%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period16 Jan 202431 Dec 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.85 / 1.03USD
Surprise-17.5%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth24192000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-4.9% / -3.3%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period18 Oct 202330 Sep 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.38 / 1.29USD
Surprise+7.0%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth22567000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-6.0% / -2.0%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.