Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NYSE · Earnings Dossier
HOG earnings intelligence
Harley-Davidson IncConsumer Cyclical · Recreational Vehicles · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Results and price are diverging
The sign of the earnings surprise has often differed from the direction of the next completed weekly close.
Evidence100/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Wednesday 4 November 2026
Time unconfirmed · Fiscal period ending 30 Sep 2026
46event risk
Elevated
Countdown83 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate0.46 USDprovider consensus
Estimate growth-85.2%versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement5.4%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Market price is leading earnings power; the spread is widening and has persisted through 3 updates. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move-16.5%2023-08-18 to 2026-08-07
Earnings move-69.4%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread-52.9 ptsWidening
Current multiple16.0xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure54/100Moderate
Model confidence90/100High
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Fundamental fracture
Earnings have weakened while price has not adjusted to the same degree.
Beat rate66.7%8 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise+42.4%median 12.0%
Delivery streak11 consecutive beats
Average response-2.4%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation33%same directional sign
Surprise variability146.6 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth-16.9%year on year
Revenue growth-8.1%year on year
Average surprise-6.1%latest four quarters
SUE-0.04standardised surprise
Net margin4.9%trailing basis
Cash conversion0.66xcash flow / net income
P/E13.4xcurrent snapshot
Data completeness100%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close26.01 USDcompleted week
13-week return3.1%price momentum
Fair-value gap-6.5%price versus current fair value
Relative strength-1.9exchange benchmark
Trend signalActiveweekly architecture
Next-week stateUndecided49.2%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period23 Jul 202630 Jun 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.75 / 0.62USD
Surprise+21.0%Beat
EPS growth-14.8%year on year
Revenue / growth1103344000-15.6% · USD
Next close / four weeks-4.1% / -completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period5 May 202631 Mar 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.22 / 0.23USD
Surprise-4.3%Miss
EPS growth-79.4%year on year
Revenue / growth1172531000-11.8% · USD
Next close / four weeks+3.8% / -1.2%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period10 Feb 202631 Dec 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-2.44 / -1.06USD
Surprise-130.2%Miss
EPS growth-162.4%year on year
Revenue / growth496158000-27.8% · USD
Next close / four weeks-0.3% / -5.3%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period4 Nov 202530 Sep 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.10 / 1.64USD
Surprise+89.0%Beat
EPS growth+240.7%year on year
Revenue / growth1340710000+16.5% · USD
Next close / four weeks-5.2% / -9.2%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period30 Jul 202530 Jun 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.88 / 0.93USD
Surprise-5.4%Miss
EPS growth-46.0%year on year
Revenue / growth1307098000-19.3% · USD
Next close / four weeks-2.2% / +16.7%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period1 May 202531 Mar 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.07 / 0.77USD
Surprise+39.0%Beat
EPS growth-37.8%year on year
Revenue / growth1329209000-23.1% · USD
Next close / four weeks+0.0% / +3.4%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period5 Feb 202531 Dec 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-0.93 / -0.65USD
Surprise-43.1%Miss
EPS growth-616.7%year on year
Revenue / growth687609000-34.7% · USD
Next close / four weeks-0.9% / -4.1%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period24 Oct 202430 Sep 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.91 / 0.81USD
Surprise+12.3%Beat
EPS growth-34.1%year on year
Revenue / growth1150695000-25.7% · USD
Next close / four weeks-12.1% / -9.2%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period25 Jul 202430 Jun 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.63 / 1.38USD
Surprise+18.1%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth1618893000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+6.4% / +5.5%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period25 Apr 202431 Mar 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.72 / 1.54USD
Surprise+11.7%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth1729607000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-8.6% / -7.0%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period8 Feb 202431 Dec 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.18 / 0.03USD
Surprise+500.0%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth1053210000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+7.8% / +6.8%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period26 Oct 202330 Sep 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.38 / 1.37USD
Surprise+0.7%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth1549059000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-13.1% / -0.3%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.