Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NASDAQ · Earnings Dossier
EYE earnings intelligence
National Vision Holdings IncConsumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Delivery strong, expectations demanding
Results have usually cleared estimates, but price has not consistently rewarded the delivery.
Evidence99/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Wednesday 12 August 2026
Before the open · Fiscal period ending 30 Jun 2026
88event risk
High
Countdown0 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate0.09 USDprovider consensus
Estimate growth-50.0%versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement13.0%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Earnings power is leading market price; the spread is widening and has persisted through 1 update. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move17.0%2023-08-18 to 2026-08-07
Earnings move54.5%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread37.5 ptsWidening
Current multiple26.5xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure41/100Moderate
Model confidence90/100High
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Business quality supportive
Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive.
Fresh improvement awaiting confirmation
Earnings improved at the latest reported update, but market price remains below its pre-update level.
Model qualification
The direction is sensitive to the comparison horizon.
Beat rate100.0%12 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise+49.3%median 35.4%
Delivery streak1212 consecutive beats
Average response-1.1%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation50%same directional sign
Surprise variability42.8 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue growth9.2%year on year
Average surprise57.3%latest four quarters
SUE1.00standardised surprise
Net margin2.3%trailing basis
Cash conversion5.28xcash flow / net income
P/E38.8xcurrent snapshot
Data completeness93%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close22.55 USDcompleted week
13-week return-1.8%price momentum
Fair-value gap20.6%price versus current fair value
Relative strength-19.7exchange benchmark
Trend signalInactiveweekly architecture
Next-week stateUndecided48.9%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period13 May 202631 Mar 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.45 / 0.43USD
Surprise+4.7%Beat
EPS growth+32.4%year on year
Revenue / growth543880000+6.6% · USD
Next close / four weeks-24.0% / -32.8%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period4 Mar 202631 Dec 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.15 / 0.06USD
Surprise+156.0%Beat
EPS growth+475.0%year on year
Revenue / growth503411000+15.1% · USD
Next close / four weeks+3.4% / -6.8%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period5 Nov 202530 Sep 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.07 / 0.05USD
Surprise+40.0%Beat
EPS growth-41.7%year on year
Revenue / growth487330000+7.9% · USD
Next close / four weeks-6.3% / +12.0%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period6 Aug 202530 Jun 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.18 / 0.14USD
Surprise+28.6%Beat
EPS growth+20.0%year on year
Revenue / growth486423000+7.7% · USD
Next close / four weeks-6.5% / -5.2%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period7 May 202531 Mar 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.34 / 0.31USD
Surprise+9.7%Beat
EPS growth+13.3%year on year
Revenue / growth510324000+5.7% · USD
Next close / four weeks+30.7% / +50.8%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period26 Feb 202531 Dec 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-0.04 / -0.05USD
Surprise+12.3%Beat
EPS growth-100.0%year on year
Revenue / growth437278000-13.7% · USD
Next close / four weeks+8.6% / +11.3%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period6 Nov 202430 Sep 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.12 / 0.06USD
Surprise+100.0%Beat
EPS growth-20.0%year on year
Revenue / growth451515000+2.9% · USD
Next close / four weeks+4.5% / +9.9%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period7 Aug 202430 Jun 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.15 / 0.09USD
Surprise+66.7%Beat
EPS growth-11.8%year on year
Revenue / growth451733000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-22.1% / -20.0%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period8 May 202431 Mar 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.30 / 0.26USD
Surprise+15.4%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth482794000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-17.5% / -15.7%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period27 Feb 202431 Dec 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-0.02 / -0.09USD
Surprise+77.8%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth506403000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+16.0% / +9.1%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period9 Nov 202330 Sep 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.15 / 0.10USD
Surprise+50.0%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth438820000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+8.0% / +12.5%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period10 Aug 202330 Jun 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.17 / 0.13USD
Surprise+30.8%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks-8.0% / -16.4%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.