Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NASDAQ · Earnings Dossier
TCBI earnings intelligence
Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regional · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Results and price are diverging
The sign of the earnings surprise has often differed from the direction of the next completed weekly close.
Evidence100/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Wednesday 21 October 2026
Time unconfirmed · Fiscal period ending 30 Sep 2026
44event risk
Moderate
Countdown69 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate1.93 USDprovider consensus
Estimate growth-11.5%versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement4.5%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Earnings power is leading market price; the spread is widening and has persisted through 4 updates. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move66.9%2023-08-18 to 2026-08-07
Earnings move112.1%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread45.2 ptsWidening
Current multiple12.9xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure57/100Moderate
Model confidence100/100High
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Persistent earnings lead
Earnings power has led market price across several updates.
Business quality supportive
Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive.
Fresh improvement awaiting confirmation
Earnings improved at the latest reported update, but market price remains below its pre-update level.
Beat rate58.3%7 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise-14.2%median 6.0%
Delivery streak55 consecutive beats
Average response+0.7%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation18%same directional sign
Surprise variability72.7 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth171.9%year on year
Revenue growth9.3%year on year
Average surprise13.6%latest four quarters
SUE-0.18standardised surprise
Net margin18.6%trailing basis
Cash conversion2.55xcash flow / net income
P/E11.8xcurrent snapshot
Data completeness100%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close99.33 USDcompleted week
13-week return-0.4%price momentum
Fair-value gap29.3%price versus current fair value
Relative strength-7.9exchange benchmark
Trend signalActiveweekly architecture
Next-week stateUndecided53.3%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period22 Jul 202630 Jun 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.88 / 1.85USD
Surprise+1.6%Beat
EPS growth+15.3%year on year
Revenue / growth439930000-10.9% · USD
Next close / four weeks-5.5% / -completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period23 Apr 202631 Mar 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.58 / 1.41USD
Surprise+12.1%Beat
EPS growth+71.7%year on year
Revenue / growth488360000+3.5% · USD
Next close / four weeks-5.2% / -8.2%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period22 Jan 202631 Dec 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.08 / 1.77USD
Surprise+17.5%Beat
EPS growth+45.5%year on year
Revenue / growth504360000+2.6% · USD
Next close / four weeks-1.0% / +5.5%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period22 Oct 202530 Sep 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.18 / 1.77USD
Surprise+23.2%Beat
EPS growth+253.5%year on year
Revenue / growth529198000+56.7% · USD
Next close / four weeks+8.3% / +8.8%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period17 Jul 202530 Jun 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.63 / 1.29USD
Surprise+26.4%Beat
EPS growth+103.7%year on year
Revenue / growth493636000+4.5% · USD
Next close / four weeks+3.9% / -7.2%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period17 Apr 202531 Mar 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.92 / 0.95USD
Surprise-3.2%Miss
EPS growth+100.0%year on year
Revenue / growth471733000+2.8% · USD
Next close / four weeks+6.5% / +17.5%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period23 Jan 202531 Dec 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.43 / 1.08USD
Surprise+32.4%Beat
EPS growth+120.0%year on year
Revenue / growth491645000+9.7% · USD
Next close / four weeks-4.1% / +0.3%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period17 Oct 202430 Sep 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-1.42 / 0.95USD
Surprise-249.5%Miss
EPS growth-220.3%year on year
Revenue / growth337762000-28.5% · USD
Next close / four weeks+4.3% / +11.0%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period18 Jul 202430 Jun 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.80 / 0.86USD
Surprise-7.0%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth472492000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+2.6% / -6.5%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period18 Apr 202431 Mar 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.46 / 0.61USD
Surprise-24.6%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth458697000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+3.8% / +8.7%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period18 Jan 202431 Dec 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.65 / 0.72USD
Surprise-9.7%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth448205000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+1.9% / -5.3%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period19 Oct 202330 Sep 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.18 / 1.07USD
Surprise+10.3%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth472641000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-6.6% / -4.9%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.