Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NYSE · Earnings Dossier
AIR earnings intelligence
AAR CorpIndustrials · Aerospace & Defense · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Delivery strong, expectations demanding
Results have usually cleared estimates, but price has not consistently rewarded the delivery.
Evidence100/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Tuesday 22 September 2026
Time unconfirmed · Fiscal period ending 31 Aug 2026
47event risk
Elevated
Countdown41 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate-provider consensus
Estimate growth-versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement9.3%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Market price is leading earnings power; the spread is widening and has persisted through 2 updates. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move139.8%2023-08-18 to 2026-08-07
Earnings move75.0%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread-64.8 ptsWidening
Current multiple28.4xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure55/100Moderate
Model confidence96/100High
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Business quality supportive
Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive.
Expectations elevated
Price is leading delivered earnings power by a meaningful margin.
Beat rate100.0%12 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise+7.5%median 7.5%
Delivery streak1212 consecutive beats
Average response-0.0%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation46%same directional sign
Surprise variability4.9 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue growth19.0%year on year
Average surprise10.3%latest four quarters
SUE1.92standardised surprise
Net margin5.7%trailing basis
Cash conversion0.89xcash flow / net income
P/E30.7xcurrent snapshot
Data completeness93%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close143.06 USDcompleted week
13-week return21.5%price momentum
Fair-value gap84.8%price versus current fair value
Relative strength24.8exchange benchmark
Trend signalActiveweekly architecture
Next-week stateUndecided52.6%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period21 Jul 202631 May 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.53 / 1.41USD
Surprise+8.5%Beat
EPS growth+31.9%year on year
Revenue / growth928000000+23.0% · USD
Next close / four weeks-4.6% / -completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period24 Mar 202628 Feb 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.25 / 1.16USD
Surprise+7.8%Beat
EPS growth+26.3%year on year
Revenue / growth845100000+24.6% · USD
Next close / four weeks+5.8% / +21.4%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period6 Jan 202630 Nov 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.18 / 1.03USD
Surprise+14.6%Beat
EPS growth+31.1%year on year
Revenue / growth795300000+15.9% · USD
Next close / four weeks+14.9% / +25.4%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period23 Sep 202531 Aug 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.08 / 0.98USD
Surprise+10.2%Beat
EPS growth+27.1%year on year
Revenue / growth739600000+11.8% · USD
Next close / four weeks+14.7% / +10.2%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period16 Jul 202531 May 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.16 / 1.00USD
Surprise+16.0%Beat
EPS growth+31.8%year on year
Revenue / growth754500000+14.9% · USD
Next close / four weeks+11.8% / -0.1%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period27 Mar 202528 Feb 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.99 / 0.96USD
Surprise+3.1%Beat
EPS growth+16.5%year on year
Revenue / growth678200000+19.5% · USD
Next close / four weeks-15.9% / -22.3%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period7 Jan 202530 Nov 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.90 / 0.84USD
Surprise+7.1%Beat
EPS growth+11.1%year on year
Revenue / growth686100000+25.8% · USD
Next close / four weeks+8.4% / +8.4%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period23 Sep 202431 Aug 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.85 / 0.82USD
Surprise+3.7%Beat
EPS growth+9.0%year on year
Revenue / growth661700000+20.4% · USD
Next close / four weeks-6.6% / -10.6%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period18 Jul 202431 May 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.88 / 0.85USD
Surprise+3.5%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth656500000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-13.2% / -18.9%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period21 Mar 202429 Feb 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.85 / 0.84USD
Surprise+1.2%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth567300000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-4.3% / -3.3%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period21 Dec 202330 Nov 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.81 / 0.80USD
Surprise+1.2%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth545400000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-10.4% / -16.1%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period26 Sep 202331 Aug 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.78 / 0.69USD
Surprise+13.0%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth549700000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-0.9% / -3.2%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.