Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NASDAQ · Earnings Dossier
RYAAY earnings intelligence
Ryanair Holdings PLC ADRIndustrials · Airlines · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Mixed earnings transmission
Delivery and market response do not currently form a persistent directional pattern.
Evidence100/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Monday 2 November 2026
Time unconfirmed · Fiscal period ending 30 Sep 2026
48event risk
Elevated
Countdown82 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate3.54 USDprovider consensus
Estimate growth-4.6%versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement6.0%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Market price is leading earnings power; the spread is widening and has persisted through 4 updates. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move61.3%2023-08-18 to 2026-08-07
Earnings move-19.8%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread-81.1 ptsWidening
Current multiple14.0xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure67/100High
Model confidence85/100High
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Fundamental fracture
Earnings have weakened while price has not adjusted to the same degree.
Model qualification
The direction is sensitive to the comparison horizon.
Beat rate66.7%8 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise+32.6%median 2.1%
Delivery streak11 consecutive misses
Average response+1.8%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation60%same directional sign
Surprise variability87.8 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth-9.0%year on year
Revenue growth6.6%year on year
Average surprise20.3%latest four quarters
SUE0.68standardised surprise
Net margin12.1%trailing basis
Cash conversion2.75xcash flow / net income
P/E16.6xcurrent snapshot
Data completeness100%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close60.19 USDcompleted week
13-week return3.7%price momentum
Fair-value gap16.1%price versus current fair value
Relative strength-16.3exchange benchmark
Trend signalInactiveweekly architecture
Next-week stateUndecided51.7%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period20 Jul 202630 Jun 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.19 / 1.25USD
Surprise-4.8%Miss
EPS growth-33.5%year on year
Revenue / growth4384100000+1.1% · USD
Next close / four weeks-9.1% / -completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period18 May 202631 Mar 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-0.85 / -0.95USD
Surprise+10.6%Beat
EPS growth-35.6%year on year
Revenue / growth2553918874+11.2% · USD
Next close / four weeks+11.7% / +13.1%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period26 Jan 202631 Dec 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.26 / 0.15USD
Surprise+73.3%Beat
EPS growth-10.3%year on year
Revenue / growth3214200000+8.6% · USD
Next close / four weeks-0.5% / -9.2%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period3 Nov 202530 Sep 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.71 / 3.63USD
Surprise+2.2%Beat
EPS growth-46.9%year on year
Revenue / growth5479900000+8.2% · USD
Next close / four weeks+2.1% / +9.1%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period28 Jul 202530 Jun 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.79 / 1.48USD
Surprise+20.9%Beat
EPS growth+163.2%year on year
Revenue / growth4337600000+19.6% · USD
Next close / four weeks-2.6% / +4.6%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period19 May 202531 Mar 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-0.63 / -0.64USD
Surprise+1.9%Beat
EPS growth+52.4%year on year
Revenue / growth2297300000-2.5% · USD
Next close / four weeks+12.1% / +10.4%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period27 Jan 202531 Dec 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.29 / 0.08USD
Surprise+262.5%Beat
EPS growth+866.7%year on year
Revenue / growth29592000000.0% · USD
Next close / four weeks+1.2% / -2.1%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period4 Nov 202430 Sep 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate6.99 / 2.81USD
Surprise+148.8%Beat
EPS growth+146.1%year on year
Revenue / growth5065900000+2.8% · USD
Next close / four weeks+0.3% / -3.3%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period22 Jul 202430 Jun 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.68 / 1.17USD
Surprise-41.9%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth3626100000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-10.4% / -9.4%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period20 May 202431 Mar 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-1.32 / -1.34USD
Surprise+1.5%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth2355104120- · USD
Next close / four weeks-2.3% / -6.5%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period29 Jan 202431 Dec 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.03 / 0.16USD
Surprise-81.2%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth2959200000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+5.8% / +8.5%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period6 Nov 202330 Sep 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.84 / 2.91USD
Surprise-2.4%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth4925900000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+13.5% / +27.4%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.