Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NASDAQ · Earnings Dossier
IBKR earnings intelligence
Interactive Brokers Group IncFinancial Services · Capital Markets · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Mixed earnings transmission
Delivery and market response do not currently form a persistent directional pattern.
Evidence100/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Tuesday 20 October 2026
Time unconfirmed · Fiscal period ending 30 Sep 2026
26event risk
Moderate
Countdown68 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate0.70 USDprovider consensus
Estimate growth+22.8%versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement5.0%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Market price is leading earnings power; the spread is stable and has persisted through 8 updates. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move290.0%2023-08-18 to 2026-08-07
Earnings move97.6%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread-192.4 ptsStable
Current multiple35.0xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure91/100Extreme
Model confidence87/100High
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Business quality supportive
Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive.
Expectations stretched
Price has moved materially faster than delivered earnings power.
Model qualification
The direction is sensitive to the comparison horizon.
Beat rate58.3%7 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise+3.4%median 2.5%
Delivery streak11 consecutive beats
Average response+0.8%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation67%same directional sign
Surprise variability4.8 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth34.4%year on year
Revenue growth29.7%year on year
Average surprise5.9%latest four quarters
SUE0.88standardised surprise
Net margin10.1%trailing basis
Cash conversion14.21xcash flow / net income
P/E35.3xcurrent snapshot
Data completeness100%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close87.83 USDcompleted week
13-week return4.1%price momentum
Fair-value gap81.6%price versus current fair value
Relative strength4.7exchange benchmark
Trend signalActiveweekly architecture
Next-week statePositive56.9%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period21 Jul 202630 Jun 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.69 / 0.64USD
Surprise+7.8%Beat
EPS growth+35.3%year on year
Revenue / growth2953000000+19.6% · USD
Next close / four weeks+1.3% / -completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period21 Apr 202631 Mar 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.60 / 0.60USD
Surprise0.0%In-Line
EPS growth+27.7%year on year
Revenue / growth2701000000+16.9% · USD
Next close / four weeks-6.2% / +6.5%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period20 Jan 202631 Dec 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.65 / 0.59USD
Surprise+10.2%Beat
EPS growth+27.5%year on year
Revenue / growth2749000000+13.5% · USD
Next close / four weeks+5.8% / +1.9%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period16 Oct 202530 Sep 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.57 / 0.54USD
Surprise+5.6%Beat
EPS growth+29.5%year on year
Revenue / growth2704000000+98.1% · USD
Next close / four weeks-4.0% / +2.2%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period17 Jul 202530 Jun 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.51 / 0.47USD
Surprise+8.5%Beat
EPS growth+15.9%year on year
Revenue / growth2469000000+7.3% · USD
Next close / four weeks+9.3% / +12.5%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period15 Apr 202531 Mar 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.47 / 0.48USD
Surprise-2.1%Miss
EPS growth+14.6%year on year
Revenue / growth2310000000+5.1% · USD
Next close / four weeks-6.9% / +8.3%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period21 Jan 202531 Dec 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.51 / 0.46USD
Surprise+10.9%Beat
EPS growth+34.2%year on year
Revenue / growth2421000000+15.4% · USD
Next close / four weeks+15.2% / +23.2%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period15 Oct 202430 Sep 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.44 / 0.45USD
Surprise-2.2%Miss
EPS growth+12.8%year on year
Revenue / growth1365000000-32.7% · USD
Next close / four weeks-1.5% / +12.3%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period16 Jul 202430 Jun 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.44 / 0.43USD
Surprise+2.3%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth2302000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-0.8% / -4.2%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period16 Apr 202431 Mar 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.41 / 0.41USD
Surprise0.0%In-Line
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth2198000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+1.1% / +8.8%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period16 Jan 202431 Dec 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.38 / 0.39USD
Surprise-2.6%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth2098000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+1.6% / +11.0%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period17 Oct 202330 Sep 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.39 / 0.38USD
Surprise+2.6%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth2028000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-5.8% / -3.2%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.