Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NASDAQ · Earnings Dossier
GO earnings intelligence
Grocery Outlet Holding CorpConsumer Defensive · Grocery Stores · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Delivery strong, expectations demanding
Results have usually cleared estimates, but price has not consistently rewarded the delivery.
Evidence99/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
No forward date is currently stored
The historical dossier remains available while the next calendar date is unconfirmed.
0event risk
Inactive
Countdown-calendar proximity
EPS estimate-provider consensus
Estimate growth-versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement14.7%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Earnings power is leading market price; the spread is closing and has persisted through 11 updates. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move-70.6%2023-08-18 to 2026-08-07
Earnings move-38.7%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread31.9 ptsClosing
Current multiple14.6xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure43/100Moderate
Model confidence90/100High
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Beat rate75.0%9 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise+24.1%median 13.7%
Delivery streak11 consecutive beats
Average response-4.0%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation67%same directional sign
Surprise variability48.7 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue growth6.0%year on year
Average surprise30.2%latest four quarters
SUE0.28standardised surprise
Net margin-8.1%trailing basis
Cash conversion-1.30xcash flow / net income
P/E-current snapshot
Data completeness79%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close9.91 USDcompleted week
13-week return21.0%price momentum
Fair-value gap-43.4%price versus current fair value
Relative strength-21.6exchange benchmark
Trend signalActiveweekly architecture
Next-week stateNegative39.2%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period13 May 202631 Mar 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.05 / 0.02USD
Surprise+150.0%Beat
EPS growth-61.5%year on year
Revenue / growth1166352000+3.6% · USD
Next close / four weeks-9.6% / +4.5%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period4 Mar 202631 Dec 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.19 / 0.21USD
Surprise-10.6%Miss
EPS growth+26.7%year on year
Revenue / growth1215267000+10.7% · USD
Next close / four weeks-33.3% / -28.4%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period4 Nov 202530 Sep 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.21 / 0.19USD
Surprise+10.5%Beat
EPS growth-25.0%year on year
Revenue / growth1168153000+5.4% · USD
Next close / four weeks-10.7% / -18.2%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period5 Aug 202530 Jun 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.23 / 0.17USD
Surprise+35.3%Beat
EPS growth-8.0%year on year
Revenue / growth1179772000+4.5% · USD
Next close / four weeks+37.3% / +34.1%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period6 May 202531 Mar 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.13 / 0.07USD
Surprise+85.7%Beat
EPS growth+44.4%year on year
Revenue / growth1125567000+8.5% · USD
Next close / four weeks-12.6% / -17.6%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period25 Feb 202531 Dec 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.15 / 0.17USD
Surprise-10.3%Miss
EPS growth-16.7%year on year
Revenue / growth1097854000+10.9% · USD
Next close / four weeks-24.3% / -19.1%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period5 Nov 202430 Sep 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.28 / 0.27USD
Surprise+3.7%Beat
EPS growth-9.7%year on year
Revenue / growth1108183000+10.4% · USD
Next close / four weeks+18.3% / +39.5%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period6 Aug 202430 Jun 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.25 / 0.20USD
Surprise+25.0%Beat
EPS growth-21.9%year on year
Revenue / growth1128520000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+4.1% / +0.6%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period7 May 202431 Mar 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.09 / 0.18USD
Surprise-50.0%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth1036944000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-18.7% / -14.5%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period27 Feb 202431 Dec 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.18 / 0.16USD
Surprise+12.5%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth989818000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+1.5% / +8.6%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period7 Nov 202330 Sep 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.31 / 0.27USD
Surprise+14.8%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth1003913000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-3.2% / +0.4%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period8 Aug 202330 Jun 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.32 / 0.26USD
Surprise+23.1%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+3.2% / -8.1%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.