Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NASDAQ · Earnings Dossier
HGBL earnings intelligence
Heritage Global IncFinancial Services · Capital Markets · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Delivery under pressure
Estimate misses and negative next-close reactions have appeared together often enough to warrant caution.
Evidence99/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Thursday 13 August 2026
After the close · Fiscal period ending 30 Jun 2026
82event risk
High
Countdown0 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate-provider consensus
Estimate growth-versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement8.7%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Earnings power and market price are broadly aligned; their relationship is currently closing. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move-67.4%2023-08-18 to 2026-08-07
Earnings move-66.7%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread0.7 ptsClosing
Current multiple10.6xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure19/100Low
Model confidence79/100High
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Model qualification
The direction is sensitive to the comparison horizon.
Beat rate8.3%1 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise-27.3%median -25.0%
Delivery streak11 consecutive in-line reports
Average response-6.1%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation78%same directional sign
Surprise variability46.9 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth-27.1%year on year
Revenue growth7.7%year on year
Average surprise-48.1%latest four quarters
SUE-0.39standardised surprise
Net margin6.4%trailing basis
Cash conversion0.92xcash flow / net income
P/E11.4xcurrent snapshot
Data completeness100%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close1.06 USDcompleted week
13-week return-17.8%price momentum
Fair-value gap-47.7%price versus current fair value
Relative strength-33.7exchange benchmark
Trend signalInactiveweekly architecture
Next-week stateNegative44.8%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period7 May 202631 Mar 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.02 / 0.02USD
Surprise0.0%In-Line
EPS growth-33.3%year on year
Revenue / growth12725000-5.5% · USD
Next close / four weeks-4.4% / -9.6%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period12 Mar 202631 Dec 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.01 / 0.04USD
Surprise-72.8%Miss
EPS growth+200.0%year on year
Revenue / growth11855000+10.1% · USD
Next close / four weeks-7.9% / +8.7%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period6 Nov 202530 Sep 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.02 / 0.04USD
Surprise-50.0%Miss
EPS growth-33.3%year on year
Revenue / growth11360000+9.1% · USD
Next close / four weeks-11.6% / -8.2%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period7 Aug 202530 Jun 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.05 / 0.05USD
Surprise0.0%In-Line
EPS growth-28.6%year on year
Revenue / growth14304000+19.0% · USD
Next close / four weeks-7.8% / -12.0%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period8 May 202531 Mar 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.03 / 0.04USD
Surprise-25.0%Miss
EPS growth-40.0%year on year
Revenue / growth13459000+10.7% · USD
Next close / four weeks+2.5% / +9.0%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period13 Mar 202531 Dec 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-0.01 / 0.05USD
Surprise-120.0%Miss
EPS growth-107.7%year on year
Revenue / growth10767000-29.6% · USD
Next close / four weeks+12.4% / -1.0%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period7 Nov 202430 Sep 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.03 / 0.06USD
Surprise-50.0%Miss
EPS growth-50.0%year on year
Revenue / growth10410000-33.1% · USD
Next close / four weeks-3.3% / +4.5%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period8 Aug 202430 Jun 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.07 / 0.09USD
Surprise-22.2%Miss
EPS growth-12.5%year on year
Revenue / growth12023000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-19.0% / -27.4%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period9 May 202431 Mar 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.05 / 0.08USD
Surprise-37.5%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth12161000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-6.1% / -6.6%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period14 Mar 202431 Dec 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.13 / 0.07USD
Surprise+85.7%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth15284000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+0.7% / -9.6%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period9 Nov 202330 Sep 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.06 / 0.08USD
Surprise-25.0%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth15551000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-14.6% / -16.7%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period10 Aug 202330 Jun 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.08 / 0.09USD
Surprise-11.1%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks-13.8% / -10.8%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.