Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NYSE · Earnings Dossier
EAT earnings intelligence
Brinker International IncConsumer Cyclical · Restaurants · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Delivery and acceptance aligned
Results have usually cleared estimates and the next completed weekly close has, on average, confirmed the delivery.
Evidence99/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Wednesday 12 August 2026
Before the open · Fiscal period ending 30 Jun 2026
81event risk
High
Countdown0 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate3.07 USDprovider consensus
Estimate growth+23.3%versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement10.3%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Market price is leading earnings power; the spread is widening and has persisted through 2 updates. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move560.0%2023-08-18 to 2026-08-07
Earnings move262.6%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread-297.4 ptsWidening
Current multiple22.1xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure88/100Extreme
Model confidence98/100High
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Business quality supportive
Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive.
Expectations stretched
Price has moved materially faster than delivered earnings power.
Beat rate91.7%11 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise+48.6%median 6.6%
Delivery streak77 consecutive beats
Average response+2.8%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation67%same directional sign
Surprise variability125.0 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth38.8%year on year
Revenue growth11.8%year on year
Average surprise5.1%latest four quarters
SUE0.66standardised surprise
Net margin8.1%trailing basis
Cash conversion2.18xcash flow / net income
P/E20.9xcurrent snapshot
Data completeness100%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close225.20 USDcompleted week
13-week return62.4%price momentum
Fair-value gap103.8%price versus current fair value
Relative strength33.6exchange benchmark
Trend signalActiveweekly architecture
Next-week statePositive57.6%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period29 Apr 202631 Mar 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.90 / 2.86USD
Surprise+1.4%Beat
EPS growth+9.0%year on year
Revenue / growth1470200000+3.2% · USD
Next close / four weeks+6.8% / -0.9%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period28 Jan 202631 Dec 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.87 / 2.63USD
Surprise+9.1%Beat
EPS growth+2.5%year on year
Revenue / growth1452200000+6.9% · USD
Next close / four weeks-3.1% / -10.0%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period29 Oct 202530 Sep 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.93 / 1.77USD
Surprise+9.0%Beat
EPS growth+103.2%year on year
Revenue / growth1349200000+18.5% · USD
Next close / four weeks-14.6% / +6.0%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period13 Aug 202530 Jun 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.49 / 2.47USD
Surprise+0.8%Beat
EPS growth+54.7%year on year
Revenue / growth1461900000+21.0% · USD
Next close / four weeks+4.1% / +4.1%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period29 Apr 202531 Mar 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.66 / 2.57USD
Surprise+3.5%Beat
EPS growth+114.5%year on year
Revenue / growth1425100000+27.2% · USD
Next close / four weeks-16.6% / -3.2%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period29 Jan 202531 Dec 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.80 / 1.86USD
Surprise+50.5%Beat
EPS growth+182.8%year on year
Revenue / growth1358200000+26.5% · USD
Next close / four weeks+21.7% / -3.1%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period30 Oct 202430 Sep 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.95 / 0.69USD
Surprise+37.7%Beat
EPS growth+239.3%year on year
Revenue / growth1139000000+12.5% · USD
Next close / four weeks+10.6% / +32.4%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period14 Aug 202430 Jun 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.61 / 1.72USD
Surprise-6.4%Miss
EPS growth+15.8%year on year
Revenue / growth1208200000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-1.6% / +3.8%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period30 Apr 202431 Mar 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.24 / 1.15USD
Surprise+7.8%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth1120300000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+12.6% / +35.8%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period31 Jan 202431 Dec 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.99 / 0.95USD
Surprise+4.2%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth1074100000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+14.9% / +17.5%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period1 Nov 202330 Sep 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.28 / 0.05USD
Surprise+460.0%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth1012500000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+7.8% / +8.6%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period16 Aug 202330 Jun 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.39 / 1.32USD
Surprise+5.3%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks-9.1% / -17.1%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.