Experimental model · KSC · Market · Weekly geometry

261110 Trend Architecture

Mirae Asset Tiger US Dollar Leverage ETF

Week ending 7 Aug 2026Close KRW 16790.00History EstablishedBenchmark ^KS11
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Rotation Down · Supply rotation

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion.

  • The mixed Trend gate is established within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
  • Activity structure: wide and expanding.
Direction -47−100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 70/100directional strength
Maturity 8/100lifecycle context
Confidence 88/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Mixedstructural direction
Activity structure Wideexpanding separation
Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context +2.4%KRW 16393.18 · weakening
Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Background bands show the SM structural read recognized from information available at each completed observation. Trend, Activity and Fair Value are presented together as current and historical context.

CloseActivity LinesTrendCurrent Fair Value
Price vs TrendBelow-8.1%
Trend directionRising+2.1%
Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+2.4%
Fair Value directionMoving away-8.9%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-24.0%
Relative strength directionImproving+19.1%
Price momentumNegative-5.7%
Volume balanceSupply-led0.86×
Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance21
Rotation Up14
Upward Expansion29
Deceleration50
Rotation Down76
Downward Expansion56

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Rotation Down2026-08-072026-08-07New+0.0%
Upward Expansion2026-05-292026-07-31Developing-9.7%
Deceleration2026-05-012026-05-22New+4.8%
Upward Expansion2026-03-202026-04-24Developing-2.1%
Deceleration2026-01-092026-03-13Developing+5.1%
Upward Expansion2025-12-262026-01-02New+0.3%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 · Basing49
Stage 2 · Advancing25
Stage 3 · Distribution44
Stage 4 · Declining44

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3B · Distribution. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^KS11

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
88/100
Current Relative Strength
-23.97
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
-5.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-28.7%
Sector regime cohort
95th percentile
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume0.90×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.86×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Regime bands repeat the state that was actually recognized at the time.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity KRW 17420.33falling
Slow Activity KRW 18437.00falling
Trend Reference KRW 18269.17-8.1% close margin
Current Fair Value KRW 16393.18+2.4% close margin
Structural low KRW 16655.00shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Complete bearish ordering below the Trend Line confirms Downward Expansion; a repaired fast/slow cross and upside acceptance cancel the failure.

Range context +4.2%
Annualized volatility +18.5%
From structural high -16.1%
From structural low +9.5%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^KS11 Regime survived Read
Near term0Too little matched history
Intermediate0Too little matched history
Extended0Too little matched history
Full cycle0Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context