- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Next-week expectancy is positive at 57.32% based on similar historical setup states.
TLS
ASX
Week ended 07 Aug 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Telstra Group Limited · Communication Services · Telecom Services
Latest close
4.98 AUD
-0.8%
latest week
Weekly setup
Mixed setup
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -2.6% below the Trend Line and sits at 38.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -0.8%, after a 1.6% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is expensive relative to peers. The latest news-sentiment score is 50/100.
Setup score
49
out of 100
Latest Close
4.98 AUD
7 Aug 2026
1W Return
-0.8%
latest completed week
4W Return
1.6%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-7.4%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
75.0%
39 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
1.4x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-0.8%
Latest completed week; four-week move 1.6%.
Indicator stack
41/41
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 57.32%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
News sentiment
50/100
4 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -2.6% below the Trend Line and sits at 38.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -0.8%, after a 1.6% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 1.4x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.3112-week average 0.71
12-week confirmation
Trend active6/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure2/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership7/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.31Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers33 reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. 3 reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 1.6% over four weeks, -7.4% over 12 weeks, and 4.2% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year39
Trend breadth75.0%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.66Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change37.9%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-4.85Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-260.0%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is expensive relative to peers.
Factor week 09 Aug 2026
Financial statements through 30 Jun 2025
Field coverage 85%
Model confidence 43%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength55/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 46; rank 1 is best.
Value14/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 87; rank 1 is best.
Quality96/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 5; rank 1 is best.
Momentum85/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 16; rank 1 is best.
Growth83/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 18; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework33/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 25.5x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 2.4x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 8.7x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 4.6% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 63.9% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 14.6% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 15.2% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 8.0% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 0.8% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- 35.9% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- 73.8% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 6/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 4.0% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 1.4% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 5.4% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 2.0x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment50/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 4 relevant articles.
0 positive · 4 neutral · 0 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-10.8%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility2.8%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
13 Feb
13 Mar
10 Apr
8 May
5 Jun
3 Jul
7 Aug
Weeks higher13 of 2612 weeks finished lower.
Best week+4.6%Week of 12 Jun.
Worst week-4.6%Week of 5 Jun.
Latest week-0.8%Week of 7 Aug.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains1
Modest gains12
Flat weeks1
Modest losses11
Sharp losses1
Recent vol2.8%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol2.0%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split22/25Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.0% / -1.5%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorAU Communication Services
4-week rank17 / 44
Group average-1.1%
Trend breadth22.7%
Trend22.7%active weekly trend signals
MD47.7%positive activity pressure
RS20.5%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryAU Telecom Services
4-week rank5 / 11
Group average1.6%
Trend breadth18.2%
Trend18.2%active weekly trend signals
MD27.3%positive activity pressure
RS18.2%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape49/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 49/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis35/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 6/12, activity pressure 2/12, relative leadership 7/12.
Activity pressure 0.31; 3 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 57.32%Next-week expectancy is positive with a 57.32% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors62/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 5 SVQF33/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 172.5 of 257 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment50/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 4 relevant articles.
Telstra (ASX:TLS) Telecommunications Dividend Appeal: Key Trends to Watch Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | 4.98 AUD | -0.8% | 5.11 AUD | 4.16 AUD | -0.66 | -4.85 | 120.6M | Off |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 5.02 AUD | 2.7% | 5.10 AUD | 4.15 AUD | -0.69 | -1.03 | 139.4M | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 4.89 AUD | -3.0% | 5.10 AUD | 4.14 AUD | -0.87 | -1.31 | 147.9M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 5.04 AUD | 2.9% | 5.09 AUD | 4.13 AUD | -0.95 | 1.48 | 99.2M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 4.90 AUD | -1.6% | 5.08 AUD | 4.12 AUD | -1.07 | -1.35 | 133.5M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 4.98 AUD | -3.3% | 5.08 AUD | 4.12 AUD | -1.13 | -0.13 | 14.1M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 5.15 AUD | 2.0% | 5.07 AUD | 4.11 AUD | -1.01 | 4.31 | 26.6M | On |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 5.05 AUD | -2.9% | 5.06 AUD | 4.10 AUD | -0.97 | 1.69 | 39.0M | On |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 5.20 AUD | 4.6% | 5.05 AUD | 4.09 AUD | -0.51 | 5.07 | 11.4M | On |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 4.97 AUD | -4.6% | 5.04 AUD | 4.08 AUD | -0.12 | 2.65 | 130.7M | On |
| 29 May 2026 | 5.21 AUD | -3.2% | 5.04 AUD | 4.07 AUD | 0.21 | 6.39 | 50.6M | On |
| 22 May 2026 | 5.38 AUD | 0.0% | 5.02 AUD | 4.07 AUD | 0.67 | 11.00 | 147.7M | On |
| 15 May 2026 | 5.38 AUD | 1.3% | 5.00 AUD | 4.06 AUD | 0.74 | 11.63 | 90.6M | On |
| 8 May 2026 | 5.31 AUD | -1.1% | 4.98 AUD | 4.05 AUD | 0.90 | 9.13 | 102.8M | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.