- The trend backdrop is active with a 11-week active streak.
- Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Activity pressure is constructive, supporting the smart-money activity read.
RPAD5
SAO
Week ended 07 Aug 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Alfa Holdings S.A. · Industrials · Conglomerates
Latest close
6.78 BRL
2.0%
latest week
Weekly setup
Mixed setup
The weekly trend is active. Price is 2.3% above the Trend Line and sits at 65.3% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 2.0%, after a -3.1% four-week move. The latest news-sentiment score is 50/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal.
Setup score
46
out of 100
Latest Close
6.78 BRL
7 Aug 2026
1W Return
2.0%
latest completed week
4W Return
-3.1%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
1.2%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
48.1%
25 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.1x
vs 13-week average
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Next-week expectancy is negative at 33.04% based on similar historical setup states.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
2.0%
Latest completed week; four-week move -3.1%.
Indicator stack
65/41
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Negative 33.04%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
News sentiment
50/100
0 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is active. Price is 2.3% above the Trend Line and sits at 65.3% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 2.0%, after a -3.1% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.1x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.8512-week average 0.68
12-week confirmation
Trend active11/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure11/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership1/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.85Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -3.1% over four weeks, 1.2% over 12 weeks, and 11.2% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 11 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak11 weeks
Active weeks in one year25
Trend breadth48.1%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.04Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-104.2%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-2.53Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change32.0%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
A published fundamentals and factor snapshot is not available for this company.
No published fundamental snapshot is available for this company.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment50/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 0 relevant articles.
0 positive · 0 neutral · 0 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-8.3%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility2.8%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
13 Feb
13 Mar
10 Apr
8 May
5 Jun
3 Jul
7 Aug
Weeks higher12 of 267 weeks finished lower.
Best week+9.2%Week of 1 May.
Worst week-5.0%Week of 31 Jul.
Latest week+2.0%Week of 7 Aug.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains2
Modest gains10
Flat weeks7
Modest losses4
Sharp losses3
Recent vol2.8%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol5.2%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split20/16Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew4.1% / -4.1%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorBR Industrials
4-week rank55 / 100
Group average-0.9%
Trend breadth32.0%
Trend32.0%active weekly trend signals
MD50.0%positive activity pressure
RS45.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryBR Conglomerates
4-week rank4 / 6
Group average1.9%
Trend breadth50.0%
Trend50.0%active weekly trend signals
MD16.7%positive activity pressure
RS66.7%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape48/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 48/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis68/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 11/12, activity pressure 11/12, relative leadership 1/12.
Activity pressure 0.85; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 33.04%Next-week expectancy is negative with a 33.04% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors50/100No published factor snapshot is available yet.
Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment50/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 0 relevant articles.
Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | 6.78 BRL | 2.0% | 6.63 BRL | 6.69 BRL | -0.04 | -2.53 | 100 | On |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 6.65 BRL | -5.0% | 6.61 BRL | 6.68 BRL | 0.29 | -7.60 | 100 | On |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 7.00 BRL | 0.0% | 6.61 BRL | 6.67 BRL | 0.67 | -0.93 | 0 | On |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 7.00 BRL | 0.0% | 6.60 BRL | 6.67 BRL | 0.76 | -1.00 | 100 | On |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 7.00 BRL | 0.0% | 6.60 BRL | 6.66 BRL | 0.84 | -3.73 | 0 | On |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 7.00 BRL | 0.0% | 6.57 BRL | 6.65 BRL | 0.84 | -2.16 | 0 | On |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 7.00 BRL | 0.0% | 6.53 BRL | 6.64 BRL | 0.82 | -1.91 | 0 | On |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 7.00 BRL | 1.9% | 6.50 BRL | 6.63 BRL | 0.80 | 0.46 | 0 | On |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 6.87 BRL | 0.1% | 6.46 BRL | 6.62 BRL | 0.95 | -3.18 | 100 | On |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 6.86 BRL | 0.6% | 6.47 BRL | 6.61 BRL | 1.03 | -2.47 | 100 | On |
| 29 May 2026 | 6.82 BRL | -4.6% | 6.48 BRL | 6.61 BRL | 1.05 | -6.06 | 600 | On |
| 22 May 2026 | 7.15 BRL | 6.7% | 6.50 BRL | 6.60 BRL | 1.17 | -3.37 | 8.5K | Off |
| 15 May 2026 | 6.70 BRL | -1.0% | 6.50 BRL | 6.59 BRL | 0.93 | -10.40 | 1.8K | Off |
| 8 May 2026 | 6.77 BRL | -4.6% | 6.52 BRL | 6.58 BRL | 0.63 | -13.29 | 200 | Off |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.