- The trend backdrop is active with a 3-week active streak.
- Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
AMI
ASX
Week ended 07 Aug 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Aurelia Metals Limited · Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining
Latest close
0.38 AUD
20.6%
latest week
Weekly setup
Constructive, but selective
The weekly trend is active. Price is 30.0% above the Trend Line and sits at 100.0% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 20.6%, after a 35.7% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers. The latest news-sentiment score is 62/100. Near-term considerations: price is close to its 52-week high.
Setup score
69
out of 100
Latest Close
0.38 AUD
7 Aug 2026
1W Return
20.6%
latest completed week
4W Return
35.7%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
16.9%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
53.8%
28 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
2.1x
vs 13-week average
- Next-week expectancy is negative at 43.32% based on similar historical setup states.
- 3 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
- Price is close to its 52-week high; watch for continuation or exhaustion.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
20.6%
Latest completed week; four-week move 35.7%.
Indicator stack
40/100
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Negative 43.32%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
News sentiment
62/100
19 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is active. Price is 30.0% above the Trend Line and sits at 100.0% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 20.6%, after a 35.7% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 2.1x the 13-week average. Participation is unusually strong and confirms that the move is attracting attention.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.4712-week average 0.46
12-week confirmation
Trend active11/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure9/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership12/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.47Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers33 reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. 3 reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 35.7% over four weeks, 16.9% over 12 weeks, and 94.9% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 3 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak3 weeks
Active weeks in one year28
Trend breadth53.8%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.63Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change1123.6%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership34.67Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change327.9%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers.
Factor week 02 Aug 2026
Financial statements through 30 Jun 2024
Field coverage 76%
Model confidence 23%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength76/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 25; rank 1 is best.
Value85/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 16; rank 1 is best.
Quality10/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 91; rank 1 is best.
Momentum97/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 4; rank 1 is best.
Growth7/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 94; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework17/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- - Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 1.7x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 5.6x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 4.2% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 30.9% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 5.3% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 5.7% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 5.9% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- -16.1% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- - Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- - Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 3/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- - Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- -2.9% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- -2.9% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- -1.4x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment62/100
Weighted news tone is positive across 19 relevant articles.
2 positive · 17 neutral · 0 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown0.0%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility9.2%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
13 Feb
13 Mar
10 Apr
8 May
5 Jun
3 Jul
7 Aug
Weeks higher13 of 2611 weeks finished lower.
Best week+20.6%Week of 7 Aug.
Worst week-14.5%Week of 20 Mar.
Latest week+20.6%Week of 7 Aug.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains8
Modest gains5
Flat weeks2
Modest losses4
Sharp losses7
Recent vol9.2%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol8.6%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split27/20Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew8.0% / -6.5%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorAU Basic Materials
4-week rank2 / 100
Group average7.2%
Trend breadth21.0%
Trend21.0%active weekly trend signals
MD27.0%positive activity pressure
RS52.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryAU Other Industrial Metals & Mining
4-week rank3 / 100
Group average1.0%
Trend breadth22.0%
Trend22.0%active weekly trend signals
MD20.0%positive activity pressure
RS39.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape63/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 63/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis68/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 11/12, activity pressure 9/12, relative leadership 12/12.
Activity pressure 0.47; 3 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 43.32%Next-week expectancy is negative with a 43.32% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors64/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 72; Small Cap Core rank 26 SVQF17/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 213.5 of 258 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment62/100Weighted news tone is positive across 19 relevant articles.
Aurelia Metals (ASX:AMI) Converts Production Gains Into Record Cash Flow Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | 0.38 AUD | 20.6% | 0.29 AUD | 0.21 AUD | 0.63 | 34.67 | 36.9M | On |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 0.32 AUD | 0.0% | 0.29 AUD | 0.20 AUD | 0.18 | 16.59 | 18.8M | On |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 0.32 AUD | 18.9% | 0.29 AUD | 0.20 AUD | 0.09 | 20.41 | 47.2M | On |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 0.27 AUD | -5.4% | 0.28 AUD | 0.20 AUD | -0.10 | 1.93 | 24.3M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 0.28 AUD | -5.1% | 0.28 AUD | 0.20 AUD | 0.05 | 8.10 | 12.1M | On |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 0.29 AUD | 7.3% | 0.28 AUD | 0.20 AUD | 0.05 | 14.07 | 2.2M | On |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 0.28 AUD | -9.8% | 0.28 AUD | 0.20 AUD | 0.06 | 8.16 | 2.4M | On |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 0.30 AUD | 5.2% | 0.28 AUD | 0.20 AUD | 0.05 | 19.75 | 2.5M | On |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 0.29 AUD | -4.9% | 0.28 AUD | 0.19 AUD | -0.07 | 14.98 | 5.6M | On |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 0.30 AUD | 1.7% | 0.28 AUD | 0.19 AUD | 0.15 | 23.16 | 17.6M | On |
| 29 May 2026 | 0.30 AUD | 1.7% | 0.27 AUD | 0.19 AUD | 0.10 | 19.49 | 6.3M | On |
| 22 May 2026 | 0.29 AUD | -9.2% | 0.27 AUD | 0.19 AUD | -0.01 | 18.41 | 15.6M | On |
| 15 May 2026 | 0.33 AUD | 3.2% | 0.27 AUD | 0.19 AUD | -0.24 | 30.75 | 36.7M | On |
| 8 May 2026 | 0.32 AUD | 8.6% | 0.27 AUD | 0.19 AUD | -0.67 | 25.07 | 20.5M | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.