BHP ASX Week ended 07 Aug 2026

Weekly Investor Report

BHP Group Limited · Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining

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Latest close 62.97 AUD
4.4% latest week
Weekly setup

Constructive, but selective

The weekly trend is active. Price is 13.2% above the Trend Line and sits at 92.2% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 4.4%, after a 8.0% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is expensive relative to peers. The latest news-sentiment score is 53/100. Near-term considerations: price is close to its 52-week high.

Setup score 70 out of 100
Latest Close 62.97 AUD 7 Aug 2026
1W Return 4.4% latest completed week
4W Return 8.0% short-term follow-through
12W Return 4.2% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 100.0% 52 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.1x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 52-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Next-week expectancy is positive at 55.50% based on similar historical setup states.
What could go wrong
  • Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
  • 4 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
  • Latest weekly return ranks in the weaker part of its sector group.
What to watch next
  • Price is close to its 52-week high; watch for continuation or exhaustion.
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 4.4% Latest completed week; four-week move 8.0%. Indicator stack 100/28 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Positive 55.50% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. News sentiment 53/100 5 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 13.2% above the Trend Line and sits at 92.2% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 4.4%, after a 8.0% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.1x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul 7 Aug
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.8512-week average 0.90

12-week confirmation

Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure9/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership12/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.85Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers44 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 4 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 8.0% over four weeks, 4.2% over 12 weeks, and 63.1% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 52 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W4.4%
4W8.0%
12W4.2%
26W31.5%
52W63.1%
Active trend streak52 weeks
Active weeks in one year52
Trend breadth100.0%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.44Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-178.2%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership19.86Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-2.7%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is expensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 09 Aug 2026 Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025 Field coverage 91% Model confidence 72%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength57/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 44; rank 1 is best.
Value9/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 92; rank 1 is best.
Quality99/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 2; rank 1 is best.
Momentum96/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 5; rank 1 is best.
Growth10/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 91; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Value-quality framework52/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
35.5x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
6.2x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
13.2x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
2.7%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
71.7%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
37.2%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
18.1%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
22.0%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
-7.9%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
14.1%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-21.6%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
4/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
3.1%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
0.0%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
3.1%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
0.6x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Insider activity-

No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.

News sentiment53/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 5 relevant articles.

2 positive · 3 neutral · 0 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-3.2%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility3.0%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher16 of 2610 weeks finished lower.
Best week+9.5%Week of 27 Feb.
Worst week-7.9%Week of 6 Mar.
Latest week+4.4%Week of 7 Aug.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains9
Modest gains7
Flat weeks0
Modest losses7
Sharp losses3
Recent vol3.0%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol3.7%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split32/20Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew3.4% / -2.8%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape72/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 72/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis76/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 9/12, relative leadership 12/12.

Activity pressure 0.85; 4 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 55.50%

Next-week expectancy is positive with a 55.50% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors64/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 52 SVQF52/100

Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Composite rank 124.0 of 257 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Sentiment53/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 5 relevant articles.

NewEdge Advisors LLC Sells 24,569 Shares of BHP Group Limited Sponsored ADR $BHP Insiders50/100

No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.

 Earnings50/100

No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
7 Aug 202662.97 AUD4.4%55.63 AUD42.66 AUD-0.4419.8632.2MOn
31 Jul 202660.31 AUD2.5%55.10 AUD42.52 AUD-0.5019.4536.4MOn
24 Jul 202658.85 AUD2.3%54.58 AUD42.38 AUD-0.3220.2529.3MOn
17 Jul 202657.54 AUD-1.3%54.11 AUD42.26 AUD0.0118.1334.1MOn
10 Jul 202658.28 AUD-3.7%53.65 AUD42.14 AUD0.5620.4232.8MOn
3 Jul 202660.50 AUD2.6%53.20 AUD42.02 AUD0.9325.435.5MOn
26 Jun 202658.99 AUD-3.9%52.65 AUD41.87 AUD1.0324.537.5MOn
19 Jun 202661.40 AUD-2.4%52.04 AUD41.75 AUD1.1129.8237.9MOn
12 Jun 202662.93 AUD2.8%51.32 AUD41.60 AUD0.9434.828.3MOn
5 Jun 202661.24 AUD-1.7%50.62 AUD41.46 AUD0.8835.3737.6MOn
29 May 202662.31 AUD4.3%49.97 AUD41.31 AUD0.8037.4630.0MOn
22 May 202659.75 AUD-1.2%49.32 AUD41.15 AUD0.6034.3344.9MOn
15 May 202660.46 AUD4.3%48.74 AUD41.01 AUD0.4537.6348.8MOn
8 May 202657.95 AUD5.5%48.15 AUD40.87 AUD0.3031.4135.7MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.

Evidence context