- The trend backdrop is active with a 30-week active streak.
- Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Activity pressure is constructive, supporting the smart-money activity read.
CAT
EBS
Week ended 07 Aug 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Caterpillar Inc. · Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
Latest close
710.3 CHF
9.5%
latest week
Weekly setup
Mixed setup
The weekly trend is active. Price is 9.7% above the Trend Line and sits at 79.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 9.5%, after a -7.6% four-week move. The latest news-sentiment score is 51/100.
Setup score
47
out of 100
Latest Close
710.3 CHF
7 Aug 2026
1W Return
9.5%
latest completed week
4W Return
-7.6%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
1.0%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
63.5%
33 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
-
vs 13-week average
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Next-week expectancy is negative at 24.68% based on similar historical setup states.
- 2 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
Price follow-through
9.5%
Latest completed week; four-week move -7.6%.
Indicator stack
80/15
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Negative 24.68%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
News sentiment
51/100
13 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is active. Price is 9.7% above the Trend Line and sits at 79.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 9.5%, after a -7.6% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is - the 13-week average. Participation data is incomplete.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.7412-week average 0.81
12-week confirmation
Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure9/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership12/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.74Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers22 reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. 2 reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -7.6% over four weeks, 1.0% over 12 weeks, and 129.9% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 30 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak30 weeks
Active weeks in one year33
Trend breadth63.5%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-1.04Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-198.9%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership32.60Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-39.6%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
A published fundamentals and factor snapshot is not available for this company.
No published fundamental snapshot is available for this company.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment51/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 13 relevant articles.
3 positive · 9 neutral · 1 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-13.9%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility5.8%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
13 Feb
13 Mar
10 Apr
8 May
5 Jun
3 Jul
7 Aug
Weeks higher13 of 2612 weeks finished lower.
Best week+9.5%Week of 7 Aug.
Worst week-11.3%Week of 31 Jul.
Latest week+9.5%Week of 7 Aug.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains7
Modest gains6
Flat weeks1
Modest losses9
Sharp losses3
Recent vol5.8%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol13.2%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split18/15Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew9.8% / -4.0%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorCH Industrials
4-week rank54 / 58
Group average6.3%
Trend breadth32.8%
Trend32.8%active weekly trend signals
MD65.5%positive activity pressure
RS29.3%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryCH Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
4-week rank1 / 1
Group average-7.6%
Trend breadth100.0%
Trend100.0%active weekly trend signals
MD0.0%positive activity pressure
RS100.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape51/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 51/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis78/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 9/12, relative leadership 12/12.
Activity pressure 0.74; 2 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 24.68%Next-week expectancy is negative with a 24.68% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors50/100No published factor snapshot is available yet.
Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment51/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 13 relevant articles.
Caterpillar (CAT) Stock Could Be 6% Overvalued As AI Demand Lifts Outlook Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | 710.3 CHF | 9.5% | 647.5 CHF | 305.9 CHF | -1.04 | 32.60 | 0 | On |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 648.4 CHF | -11.3% | 640.0 CHF | 302.5 CHF | -0.60 | 24.22 | 1 | On |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 730.6 CHF | 3.1% | 627.0 CHF | 299.6 CHF | -0.03 | 41.63 | 0 | On |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 709.0 CHF | -7.8% | 611.1 CHF | 296.1 CHF | 0.54 | 39.18 | 0 | On |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 768.5 CHF | -1.8% | 596.0 CHF | 292.7 CHF | 1.06 | 53.99 | 0 | On |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 782.6 CHF | -5.1% | 578.9 CHF | 288.9 CHF | 1.07 | 57.08 | 0 | On |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 824.9 CHF | 4.9% | 561.3 CHF | 285.1 CHF | 0.99 | 71.10 | 0 | On |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 786.3 CHF | 8.8% | 542.3 CHF | 281.0 CHF | 0.81 | 70.81 | 0 | On |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 722.6 CHF | -1.6% | 524.6 CHF | 277.1 CHF | 0.60 | 60.52 | 0 | On |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 734.1 CHF | 3.1% | 509.1 CHF | 273.6 CHF | 0.50 | 69.57 | 0 | On |
| 29 May 2026 | 712.0 CHF | 2.6% | 493.1 CHF | 270.0 CHF | 0.42 | 65.42 | 9 | On |
| 22 May 2026 | 693.6 CHF | -1.4% | 477.9 CHF | 266.5 CHF | 0.36 | 64.24 | 0 | On |
| 15 May 2026 | 703.6 CHF | 0.0% | 463.2 CHF | 263.2 CHF | 0.36 | 72.95 | 0 | On |
| 8 May 2026 | 703.6 CHF | 1.9% | 448.3 CHF | 259.7 CHF | 0.31 | 77.79 | 0 | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.