- Latest weekly return ranks in the strongest part of its sector group.
NVAX
MEX
Week ended 07 Aug 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Novavax, Inc. · Healthcare · Biotechnology
Latest close
132.0 MXN
4.3%
latest week
Weekly setup
Weak trend
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -15.3% below the Trend Line and sits at 18.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 4.3%, after a -16.5% four-week move. The latest news-sentiment score is 38/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal.
Setup score
19
out of 100
Latest Close
132.0 MXN
7 Aug 2026
1W Return
4.3%
latest completed week
4W Return
-16.5%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-17.5%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
46.2%
24 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.5x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
4.3%
Latest completed week; four-week move -16.5%.
Indicator stack
25/4
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
News sentiment
38/100
2 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -15.3% below the Trend Line and sits at 18.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 4.3%, after a -16.5% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.5x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.4112-week average 0.48
12-week confirmation
Trend active8/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure1/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership7/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.41Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -16.5% over four weeks, -17.5% over 12 weeks, and -15.9% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year24
Trend breadth46.2%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-1.09Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-324.8%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-13.83Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-667.3%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
A published fundamentals and factor snapshot is not available for this company.
No published fundamental snapshot is available for this company.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment38/100
Weighted news tone is negative across 2 relevant articles.
0 positive · 1 neutral · 1 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-35.6%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility9.1%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
13 Feb
13 Mar
10 Apr
8 May
5 Jun
3 Jul
7 Aug
Weeks higher11 of 2615 weeks finished lower.
Best week+25.0%Week of 8 May.
Worst week-15.7%Week of 5 Jun.
Latest week+4.3%Week of 7 Aug.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains10
Modest gains1
Flat weeks0
Modest losses4
Sharp losses11
Recent vol9.1%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol8.7%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split22/29Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew8.3% / -6.2%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorMX Healthcare
4-week rank72 / 78
Group average-1.2%
Trend breadth29.5%
Trend29.5%active weekly trend signals
MD62.8%positive activity pressure
RS35.9%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryMX Biotechnology
4-week rank15 / 19
Group average-8.7%
Trend breadth15.8%
Trend15.8%active weekly trend signals
MD36.8%positive activity pressure
RS21.1%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape22/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 22/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis45/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 8/12, activity pressure 1/12, relative leadership 7/12.
Activity pressure 0.41; No reversal markers Factors50/100No published factor snapshot is available yet.
Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment38/100Weighted news tone is negative across 2 relevant articles.
Novavax, Inc. 2026 Q2 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (NASDAQ:NVAX) 2026-08-06 Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | 132.0 MXN | 4.3% | 155.8 MXN | 152.8 MXN | -1.09 | -13.83 | 367 | Off |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 126.5 MXN | -5.3% | 155.9 MXN | 152.8 MXN | -0.86 | -17.92 | 1.4K | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 133.6 MXN | -6.3% | 155.9 MXN | 152.9 MXN | -0.59 | -12.80 | 852 | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 142.6 MXN | -9.7% | 155.6 MXN | 152.9 MXN | -0.42 | -7.58 | 480 | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 158.0 MXN | -4.2% | 154.7 MXN | 152.9 MXN | -0.26 | 2.44 | 126 | On |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 165.0 MXN | 5.8% | 153.5 MXN | 152.8 MXN | -0.35 | 6.18 | 54 | On |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 156.0 MXN | -6.4% | 152.1 MXN | 152.5 MXN | -0.44 | 0.33 | 70 | On |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 166.7 MXN | 7.5% | 151.1 MXN | 152.4 MXN | -0.24 | 6.64 | 0 | On |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 155.0 MXN | -3.7% | 149.6 MXN | 152.0 MXN | -0.24 | -0.97 | 317 | On |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 161.0 MXN | -15.7% | 148.7 MXN | 151.9 MXN | -0.13 | 5.68 | 653 | On |
| 29 May 2026 | 191.0 MXN | 21.0% | 147.8 MXN | 151.7 MXN | 0.03 | 20.87 | 2.1K | On |
| 22 May 2026 | 157.8 MXN | -1.4% | 146.6 MXN | 151.4 MXN | -0.24 | 0.52 | 1.6K | On |
| 15 May 2026 | 160.0 MXN | -8.6% | 146.6 MXN | 151.2 MXN | -0.28 | 2.39 | 2.1K | On |
| 8 May 2026 | 175.0 MXN | 25.0% | 146.2 MXN | 151.0 MXN | -0.33 | 9.03 | 4.2K | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.