- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
TGM
ASX
Week ended 07 Aug 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Theta Gold Mines Limited · Basic Materials · Gold
Latest close
0.19 AUD
2.7%
latest week
Weekly setup
Mixed setup
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -9.2% below the Trend Line and sits at 30.8% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 2.7%, after a 2.7% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. The latest news-sentiment score is 50/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal.
Setup score
31
out of 100
Latest Close
0.19 AUD
7 Aug 2026
1W Return
2.7%
latest completed week
4W Return
2.7%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-9.5%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
71.2%
37 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.7x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Next-week expectancy is negative at 37.76% based on similar historical setup states.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
2.7%
Latest completed week; four-week move 2.7%.
Indicator stack
39/26
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Negative 37.76%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
News sentiment
50/100
30 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -9.2% below the Trend Line and sits at 30.8% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 2.7%, after a 2.7% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.7x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.3512-week average 0.48
12-week confirmation
Trend active6/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership6/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.35Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 2.7% over four weeks, -9.5% over 12 weeks, and 15.2% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year37
Trend breadth71.2%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-1.21Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-30.9%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-10.39Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-28.7%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.
Factor week 09 Aug 2026
Financial statements through 30 Jun 2024
Field coverage 46%
Model confidence 14%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength11/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 90; rank 1 is best.
Value25/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 76; rank 1 is best.
Quality23/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 78; rank 1 is best.
Momentum24/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 77; rank 1 is best.
Growth24/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 77; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- - Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- - Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- - Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- -2.3% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- - Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- - Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- - Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- -21.5% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- - Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- - Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- - Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 1/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- - Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- -3.5% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- -3.5% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- -4.6x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment50/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 30 relevant articles.
0 positive · 30 neutral · 0 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-32.1%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility4.4%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
13 Feb
13 Mar
10 Apr
8 May
5 Jun
3 Jul
7 Aug
Weeks higher13 of 2611 weeks finished lower.
Best week+7.1%Week of 5 Jun.
Worst week-10.9%Week of 20 Mar.
Latest week+2.7%Week of 7 Aug.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains5
Modest gains8
Flat weeks2
Modest losses6
Sharp losses5
Recent vol4.4%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol8.2%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split26/21Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew6.3% / -6.3%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorAU Basic Materials
4-week rank- / 100
Group average7.2%
Trend breadth21.0%
Trend21.0%active weekly trend signals
MD27.0%positive activity pressure
RS52.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryAU Gold
4-week rank53 / 100
Group average5.5%
Trend breadth6.0%
Trend6.0%active weekly trend signals
MD17.0%positive activity pressure
RS30.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape30/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 30/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis37/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 6/12, activity pressure 0/12, relative leadership 6/12.
Activity pressure 0.35; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 37.76%Next-week expectancy is negative with a 37.76% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors19/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 73; Small Cap Core rank 72 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment50/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 30 relevant articles.
Theta Gold Mines (ASX:TGM) Stock Climbs Today: Here's What Drove the Rally Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | 0.19 AUD | 2.7% | 0.21 AUD | 0.17 AUD | -1.21 | -10.39 | 500.2K | Off |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 0.18 AUD | 2.8% | 0.21 AUD | 0.17 AUD | -1.29 | -9.83 | 1.0M | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 0.18 AUD | 0.0% | 0.21 AUD | 0.16 AUD | -1.41 | -10.10 | 617.8K | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 0.18 AUD | -2.7% | 0.21 AUD | 0.16 AUD | -1.13 | -10.42 | 990.0K | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 0.18 AUD | -1.3% | 0.21 AUD | 0.16 AUD | -0.92 | -8.08 | 1.2M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 0.19 AUD | -10.7% | 0.21 AUD | 0.16 AUD | -0.78 | -7.15 | 193.2K | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 0.21 AUD | -2.3% | 0.21 AUD | 0.16 AUD | -0.45 | 5.33 | 0 | On |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 0.21 AUD | 2.4% | 0.21 AUD | 0.16 AUD | -0.55 | 7.79 | 90.0K | On |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 0.21 AUD | -6.7% | 0.21 AUD | 0.16 AUD | -0.64 | 6.35 | 54.6K | On |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 0.23 AUD | 7.1% | 0.20 AUD | 0.16 AUD | -0.64 | 17.00 | 2.0M | On |
| 29 May 2026 | 0.21 AUD | 2.4% | 0.20 AUD | 0.16 AUD | -0.77 | 8.77 | 116.6K | On |
| 22 May 2026 | 0.20 AUD | -2.4% | 0.20 AUD | 0.16 AUD | -0.81 | 8.02 | 1.3M | On |
| 15 May 2026 | 0.21 AUD | -2.3% | 0.20 AUD | 0.16 AUD | -0.85 | 11.79 | 1.6M | On |
| 8 May 2026 | 0.21 AUD | 4.9% | 0.20 AUD | 0.16 AUD | -0.84 | 14.03 | 1.1M | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.