- The trend backdrop is active with a 50-week active streak.
- Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Next-week expectancy is positive at 61.64% based on similar historical setup states.
ARE
TOR
Week ended 07 Aug 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Aecon Group Inc. · Industrials · Engineering & Construction
Latest close
46.64 CAD
3.1%
latest week
Weekly setup
Mixed setup
The weekly trend is active. Price is 6.5% above the Trend Line and sits at 71.5% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 3.1%, after a -4.1% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is expensive relative to peers. The latest news-sentiment score is 50/100.
Setup score
60
out of 100
Latest Close
46.64 CAD
7 Aug 2026
1W Return
3.1%
latest completed week
4W Return
-4.1%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-7.7%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
96.2%
50 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
1.1x
vs 13-week average
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- 9 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
3.1%
Latest completed week; four-week move -4.1%.
Indicator stack
98/47
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 61.64%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
News sentiment
50/100
1 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is active. Price is 6.5% above the Trend Line and sits at 71.5% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 3.1%, after a -4.1% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 1.1x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.6612-week average 0.85
12-week confirmation
Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure3/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership12/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.66Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers99 reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. 9 reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -4.1% over four weeks, -7.7% over 12 weeks, and 134.7% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 50 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak50 weeks
Active weeks in one year50
Trend breadth96.2%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.37Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change50.7%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership15.94Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-48.0%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is expensive relative to peers.
Factor week 09 Aug 2026
Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026
Field coverage 88%
Model confidence 82%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength18/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 83; rank 1 is best.
Value12/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 89; rank 1 is best.
Quality15/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 86; rank 1 is best.
Momentum95/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 6; rank 1 is best.
Growth82/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 19; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework10/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 210.8x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 0.6x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 18.6x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 1.9% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 7.3% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 1.0% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 1.1% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 4.0% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 28.1% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- - Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- - Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 6/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 1.6% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 0.3% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 1.9% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- -0.3x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment50/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 1 relevant articles.
0 positive · 1 neutral · 0 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-18.8%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility7.7%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
13 Feb
13 Mar
10 Apr
8 May
5 Jun
3 Jul
7 Aug
Weeks higher16 of 2610 weeks finished lower.
Best week+16.9%Week of 3 Jul.
Worst week-10.8%Week of 22 May.
Latest week+3.1%Week of 7 Aug.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains7
Modest gains9
Flat weeks0
Modest losses4
Sharp losses6
Recent vol7.7%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol6.0%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split33/19Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew5.2% / -4.0%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorCA Industrials
4-week rank44 / 62
Group average0.4%
Trend breadth59.7%
Trend59.7%active weekly trend signals
MD61.3%positive activity pressure
RS56.5%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryCA Engineering & Construction
4-week rank7 / 7
Group average1.0%
Trend breadth42.9%
Trend42.9%active weekly trend signals
MD57.1%positive activity pressure
RS42.9%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape67/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 67/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis61/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 3/12, relative leadership 12/12.
Activity pressure 0.66; 9 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 61.64%Next-week expectancy is positive with a 61.64% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors32/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 37; Small Cap Core rank 81 SVQF10/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 274.0 of 304 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment50/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 1 relevant articles.
Aecon Group (TSX:ARE) Stock Looks Fair On Cash Flow Yet Pricey On Earnings Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | 46.64 CAD | 3.1% | 43.79 CAD | 23.37 CAD | -0.37 | 15.94 | 2.0M | On |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 45.23 CAD | -10.1% | 43.29 CAD | 23.13 CAD | -0.27 | 17.28 | 4.9M | On |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 50.31 CAD | -6.7% | 42.83 CAD | 22.90 CAD | -0.27 | 31.26 | 1.9M | On |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 53.93 CAD | 10.9% | 42.20 CAD | 22.64 CAD | -0.48 | 43.00 | 2.1M | On |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 48.62 CAD | -5.6% | 41.44 CAD | 22.37 CAD | -0.75 | 30.67 | 1.9M | On |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 51.51 CAD | 16.9% | 40.84 CAD | 22.13 CAD | -0.96 | 40.29 | 282.1K | On |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 44.06 CAD | 1.2% | 40.10 CAD | 21.87 CAD | -1.04 | 22.52 | 466.9K | On |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 43.52 CAD | 3.1% | 39.54 CAD | 21.65 CAD | -0.88 | 22.21 | 1.5M | On |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 42.22 CAD | -6.7% | 38.93 CAD | 21.45 CAD | -0.53 | 19.83 | 868.8K | On |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 45.24 CAD | 0.8% | 38.39 CAD | 21.25 CAD | 0.18 | 31.64 | 565.9K | On |
| 29 May 2026 | 44.88 CAD | -0.4% | 37.84 CAD | 21.04 CAD | 0.90 | 30.75 | 1.7M | On |
| 22 May 2026 | 45.07 CAD | -10.8% | 37.37 CAD | 20.82 CAD | 1.57 | 33.98 | 2.4M | On |
| 15 May 2026 | 50.51 CAD | -4.4% | 36.80 CAD | 20.61 CAD | 1.94 | 54.83 | 2.8M | On |
| 8 May 2026 | 52.81 CAD | 2.5% | 35.93 CAD | 20.36 CAD | 2.02 | 63.22 | 3.4M | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.