- The trend backdrop is active with a 29-week active streak.
- Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
FZR
ASX
Week ended 07 Aug 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Fitzroy River Corporation Limited · Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Latest close
0.25 AUD
11.1%
latest week
Weekly setup
Constructive, but selective
The weekly trend is active. Price is 34.6% above the Trend Line and sits at 92.0% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 11.1%, after a 19.0% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. The latest news-sentiment score is 48/100. Near-term considerations: price is close to its 52-week high.
Setup score
80
out of 100
Latest Close
0.25 AUD
7 Aug 2026
1W Return
11.1%
latest completed week
4W Return
19.0%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
51.5%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
98.1%
51 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
2.7x
vs 13-week average
- Next-week expectancy is negative at 28.15% based on similar historical setup states.
- 5 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
- Price is close to its 52-week high; watch for continuation or exhaustion.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
11.1%
Latest completed week; four-week move 19.0%.
Indicator stack
99/81
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Negative 28.15%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
News sentiment
48/100
9 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is active. Price is 34.6% above the Trend Line and sits at 92.0% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 11.1%, after a 19.0% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 2.7x the 13-week average. Participation is unusually strong and confirms that the move is attracting attention.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.9812-week average 0.79
12-week confirmation
Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure10/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership12/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.98Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers55 reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. 5 reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 19.0% over four weeks, 51.5% over 12 weeks, and 72.4% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 29 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak29 weeks
Active weeks in one year51
Trend breadth98.1%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure1.58Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change30.6%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership35.13Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change47.6%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.
Factor week 09 Aug 2026
Financial statements through 30 Jun 2024
Field coverage 76%
Model confidence 23%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength59/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 42; rank 1 is best.
Value55/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 46; rank 1 is best.
Quality53/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 48; rank 1 is best.
Momentum54/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 47; rank 1 is best.
Growth55/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 46; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- - Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 37.2x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 68.0x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 1.8% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 100.0% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- -7.8% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 59.8% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- - Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- -30.1% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- - Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- -56.3% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 2/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 0.0% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 0.0% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 0.0% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- -6.6x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment48/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 9 relevant articles.
0 positive · 8 neutral · 1 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-3.8%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility4.6%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
13 Feb
13 Mar
10 Apr
8 May
5 Jun
3 Jul
7 Aug
Weeks higher11 of 264 weeks finished lower.
Best week+11.1%Week of 7 Aug.
Worst week-8.3%Week of 1 May.
Latest week+11.1%Week of 7 Aug.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains6
Modest gains5
Flat weeks11
Modest losses1
Sharp losses3
Recent vol4.6%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol7.2%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split19/10Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew7.9% / -8.2%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorAU Energy
4-week rank9 / 100
Group average-2.9%
Trend breadth15.0%
Trend15.0%active weekly trend signals
MD25.0%positive activity pressure
RS20.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryAU Oil & Gas E&P
4-week rank9 / 70
Group average-2.7%
Trend breadth14.3%
Trend14.3%active weekly trend signals
MD25.7%positive activity pressure
RS18.6%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape78/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 78/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis79/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 10/12, relative leadership 12/12.
Activity pressure 0.98; 5 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 28.15%Next-week expectancy is negative with a 28.15% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors54/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 32 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment48/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 9 relevant articles.
Gina Rinehart lobbied for controversial plan to move 2032 Olympic rowing to crocodile-inhabited river Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | 0.25 AUD | 11.1% | 0.19 AUD | 0.14 AUD | 1.58 | 35.13 | 487.5K | On |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 0.23 AUD | 0.0% | 0.18 AUD | 0.14 AUD | 1.48 | 26.79 | 439.4K | On |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 0.23 AUD | 0.0% | 0.18 AUD | 0.14 AUD | 1.37 | 30.81 | 452.4K | On |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 0.23 AUD | 7.1% | 0.18 AUD | 0.14 AUD | 1.23 | 31.59 | 12.9K | On |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 0.21 AUD | 0.0% | 0.18 AUD | 0.14 AUD | 1.21 | 23.80 | 0 | On |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 0.21 AUD | 2.4% | 0.18 AUD | 0.14 AUD | 1.12 | 23.90 | 0 | On |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 0.20 AUD | 2.5% | 0.17 AUD | 0.14 AUD | 1.23 | 22.69 | 0 | On |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 0.20 AUD | 2.6% | 0.17 AUD | 0.14 AUD | 1.08 | 19.31 | 89.9K | On |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 0.20 AUD | -4.9% | 0.17 AUD | 0.14 AUD | 0.95 | 17.25 | 11.0K | On |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 0.20 AUD | 10.8% | 0.17 AUD | 0.14 AUD | 0.48 | 26.26 | 560.3K | On |
| 29 May 2026 | 0.18 AUD | 2.8% | 0.17 AUD | 0.14 AUD | -0.02 | 13.33 | 0 | On |
| 22 May 2026 | 0.18 AUD | 9.1% | 0.17 AUD | 0.14 AUD | -0.23 | 11.47 | 315.5K | On |
| 15 May 2026 | 0.17 AUD | 0.0% | 0.17 AUD | 0.14 AUD | -0.22 | 2.67 | 0 | On |
| 8 May 2026 | 0.17 AUD | 0.0% | 0.17 AUD | 0.14 AUD | 0.22 | 1.33 | 0 | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.