- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Volume is elevated versus the 13-week average, confirming attention.
- Next-week expectancy is positive at 78.66% based on similar historical setup states.
NOT
GER
Week ended 02 Oct 2026
Weekly Investor Report
NOVARTIS AG N · Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General
Latest close
124.76 EUR
-1.6%
latest week
Weekly setup
Weak trend
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -4.4% below the Trend Line and sits at 58.2% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -1.6%, after a -9.4% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. The latest news-sentiment score is 50/100.
Setup score
47
out of 100
Latest Close
124.76 EUR
2 Oct 2026
1W Return
-1.6%
latest completed week
4W Return
-9.4%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-7.3%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
92.3%
48 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
1.7x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- 2 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-1.6%
Latest completed week; four-week move -9.4%.
Indicator stack
51/0
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 78.66%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
News sentiment
50/100
1 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -4.4% below the Trend Line and sits at 58.2% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -1.6%, after a -9.4% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 1.7x the 13-week average. Participation is unusually strong and confirms that the move is attracting attention.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
14 Aug
21 Aug
28 Aug
4 Sep
11 Sep
18 Sep
25 Sep
2 Oct
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.5112-week average 0.75
12-week confirmation
Trend active8/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure6/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership6/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.51Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers22 reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. 2 reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -9.4% over four weeks, -7.3% over 12 weeks, and 13.4% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year48
Trend breadth92.3%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.74Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-601.7%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-2.56Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-151.2%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.
Factor week 02 Oct 2026
Financial statements through 30 Jun 2026
Field coverage 97%
Model confidence 96%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength69/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 32; rank 1 is best.
Value29/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 72; rank 1 is best.
Quality98/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 3; rank 1 is best.
Momentum73/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 28; rank 1 is best.
Growth85/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 16; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 18.6x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 4.2x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 12.3x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 5.4% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 74.7% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 30.2% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 26.4% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 16.9% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 9.6% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- 21.9% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- 10.4% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 8/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 3.2% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 2.9% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 6.1% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 1.8x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment50/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 1 relevant articles.
0 positive · 0 neutral · 1 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-11.7%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility4.7%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
10 Apr
8 May
5 Jun
3 Jul
31 Jul
28 Aug
2 Oct
Weeks higher12 of 2614 weeks finished lower.
Best week+6.8%Week of 26 Jun.
Worst week-13.9%Week of 11 Sep.
Latest week-1.6%Week of 2 Oct.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains3
Modest gains9
Flat weeks0
Modest losses12
Sharp losses2
Recent vol4.7%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol3.5%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split30/22Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.6% / -2.8%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorDE Healthcare
4-week rank66 / 79
Group average-2.2%
Trend breadth53.2%
Trend53.2%active weekly trend signals
MD54.4%positive activity pressure
RS48.1%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryDE Drug Manufacturers - General
4-week rank11 / 12
Group average-4.7%
Trend breadth66.7%
Trend66.7%active weekly trend signals
MD58.3%positive activity pressure
RS66.7%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape49/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 49/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis50/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 8/12, activity pressure 6/12, relative leadership 6/12.
Activity pressure 0.51; 2 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 78.66%Next-week expectancy is positive with a 78.66% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors67/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 14 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment50/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 1 relevant articles.
Novartis Trial Failure Sparks Biopharma Options Frenzy Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 124.76 EUR | -1.6% | 130.55 EUR | 117.18 EUR | -0.74 | -2.56 | 27.8K | Off |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 126.82 EUR | 3.9% | 130.81 EUR | 117.08 EUR | -0.40 | -1.48 | 25.6K | Off |
| 18 Sep 2026 | 122.04 EUR | 2.9% | 131.25 EUR | 116.94 EUR | -0.39 | -4.56 | 28.4K | Off |
| 11 Sep 2026 | 118.56 EUR | -13.9% | 131.68 EUR | 116.87 EUR | -0.20 | -8.06 | 88.5K | Off |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 137.76 EUR | 4.3% | 132.17 EUR | 116.85 EUR | -0.11 | 4.99 | 19.7K | On |
| 28 Aug 2026 | 132.02 EUR | -3.1% | 131.84 EUR | 116.55 EUR | -0.16 | -1.10 | 934 | On |
| 21 Aug 2026 | 136.28 EUR | 4.5% | 131.50 EUR | 116.32 EUR | 0.13 | 4.01 | 781 | On |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 130.44 EUR | -3.6% | 131.01 EUR | 116.03 EUR | 0.18 | -1.26 | 2.2K | On |
| 7 Aug 2026 | 135.34 EUR | -0.3% | 130.68 EUR | 115.82 EUR | 0.26 | 3.21 | 4.1K | On |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 135.68 EUR | -0.6% | 130.13 EUR | 115.52 EUR | 0.15 | 6.71 | 5.5K | On |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 136.56 EUR | 1.0% | 129.42 EUR | 115.21 EUR | 0.08 | 10.18 | 1.2K | On |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 135.24 EUR | 0.5% | 128.71 EUR | 114.88 EUR | 0.08 | 10.91 | 2.0K | On |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 134.60 EUR | -2.9% | 127.98 EUR | 114.55 EUR | -0.15 | 9.98 | 1.7K | On |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 138.66 EUR | 1.4% | 127.16 EUR | 114.23 EUR | -0.25 | 10.70 | 2.3K | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.