- The trend backdrop is active with a 1-week active streak.
- Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Activity pressure is constructive, supporting the smart-money activity read.
RIO
ASX
Week ended 07 Aug 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Rio Tinto Group · Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining
Latest close
177.7 AUD
4.2%
latest week
Weekly setup
Constructive, but selective
The weekly trend is active. Price is 6.5% above the Trend Line and sits at 79.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 4.2%, after a 8.0% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is expensive relative to peers. The latest news-sentiment score is 50/100.
Setup score
58
out of 100
Latest Close
177.7 AUD
7 Aug 2026
1W Return
4.2%
latest completed week
4W Return
8.0%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-4.3%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
86.5%
45 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
1.2x
vs 13-week average
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- 13 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
- Latest weekly return ranks in the weaker part of its sector group.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
4.2%
Latest completed week; four-week move 8.0%.
Indicator stack
51/32
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
News sentiment
50/100
4 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is active. Price is 6.5% above the Trend Line and sits at 79.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 4.2%, after a 8.0% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 1.2x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.7012-week average 0.90
12-week confirmation
Trend active10/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure6/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership12/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.70Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers1313 reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. 13 reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 8.0% over four weeks, -4.3% over 12 weeks, and 63.1% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 1 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak1 weeks
Active weeks in one year45
Trend breadth86.5%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.81Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-46.4%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership12.72Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-1.4%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is expensive relative to peers.
Factor week 09 Aug 2026
Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025
Field coverage 91%
Model confidence 72%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength53/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 48; rank 1 is best.
Value9/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 92; rank 1 is best.
Quality93/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 8; rank 1 is best.
Momentum95/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 6; rank 1 is best.
Growth12/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 89; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework42/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 29.0x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 5.0x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 13.5x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 1.4% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 57.4% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 26.8% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 7.8% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 14.7% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 7.4% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- -13.8% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- -24.8% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 4/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 3.3% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 0.0% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 3.3% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 0.7x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment50/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 4 relevant articles.
0 positive · 3 neutral · 1 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-9.3%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility3.0%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
13 Feb
13 Mar
10 Apr
8 May
5 Jun
3 Jul
7 Aug
Weeks higher12 of 2614 weeks finished lower.
Best week+8.1%Week of 13 Feb.
Worst week-6.9%Week of 20 Mar.
Latest week+4.2%Week of 7 Aug.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains6
Modest gains6
Flat weeks0
Modest losses13
Sharp losses1
Recent vol3.0%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol3.2%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split31/21Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew3.1% / -2.1%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorAU Basic Materials
4-week rank52 / 100
Group average7.2%
Trend breadth21.0%
Trend21.0%active weekly trend signals
MD27.0%positive activity pressure
RS52.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryAU Other Industrial Metals & Mining
4-week rank34 / 100
Group average1.0%
Trend breadth22.0%
Trend22.0%active weekly trend signals
MD20.0%positive activity pressure
RS39.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape56/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 56/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis63/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 10/12, activity pressure 6/12, relative leadership 12/12.
Activity pressure 0.70; 13 reversal markers Factors61/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 61 SVQF42/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 149.5 of 257 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment50/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 4 relevant articles.
Rio Tinto Group (LSE:RIO) Posted Half Year 2026 Earnings, Is It Fully Priced? Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | 177.7 AUD | 4.2% | 166.9 AUD | 122.7 AUD | -0.81 | 12.72 | 5.5M | On |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 170.6 AUD | 6.6% | 165.7 AUD | 122.2 AUD | -0.97 | 12.53 | 6.7M | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 160.0 AUD | -0.6% | 164.8 AUD | 121.8 AUD | -1.08 | 8.84 | 5.3M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 160.9 AUD | -2.2% | 164.3 AUD | 121.4 AUD | -0.87 | 9.83 | 6.0M | On |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 164.5 AUD | -3.9% | 163.6 AUD | 121.0 AUD | -0.55 | 12.90 | 6.4M | On |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 171.2 AUD | -1.4% | 162.7 AUD | 120.6 AUD | -0.11 | 17.82 | 1.0M | On |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 173.6 AUD | -2.1% | 161.5 AUD | 120.1 AUD | 0.40 | 21.65 | 1.5M | On |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 177.4 AUD | -3.8% | 160.1 AUD | 119.6 AUD | 0.69 | 24.47 | 4.5M | On |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 184.3 AUD | -0.1% | 158.3 AUD | 119.1 AUD | 0.87 | 31.04 | 1.3M | On |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 184.6 AUD | -0.6% | 156.5 AUD | 118.6 AUD | 0.92 | 35.42 | 5.6M | On |
| 29 May 2026 | 185.6 AUD | 0.4% | 154.5 AUD | 118.0 AUD | 0.82 | 36.02 | 2.5M | On |
| 22 May 2026 | 184.8 AUD | -0.5% | 152.7 AUD | 117.4 AUD | 0.65 | 38.03 | 7.2M | On |
| 15 May 2026 | 185.8 AUD | 3.9% | 150.8 AUD | 116.8 AUD | 0.46 | 40.54 | 6.7M | On |
| 8 May 2026 | 178.7 AUD | 3.9% | 148.9 AUD | 116.3 AUD | 0.37 | 34.75 | 5.7M | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.