- Volume is elevated versus the 13-week average, confirming attention.
AVLN
NASDAQ
Week ended 09 Oct 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Avalyn Pharma Inc. Common Stock · Healthcare · Biotechnology
Latest close
25.76 USD
-8.4%
latest week
Weekly setup
Weak trend
The weekly trend is not active. Price is - below the Trend Line and sits at 10.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -8.4%, after a -23.3% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is bullish with 28/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 52/100. Near-term considerations: earnings are due in 26d.
Setup score
28
out of 100
Latest Close
25.76 USD
9 Oct 2026
1W Return
-8.4%
latest completed week
4W Return
-23.3%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-9.0%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
0.0%
0 of 24 weeks active
Volume Ratio
1.7x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Next-week expectancy is negative at 43.08% based on similar historical setup states.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-8.4%
Latest completed week; four-week move -23.3%.
Indicator stack
0/50
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Negative 43.08%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
Options pressure
Bullish
28/100 conviction; expected move 0.0%.
News sentiment
52/100
15 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
26d
Next report is scheduled for 11 Nov 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is - below the Trend Line and sits at 10.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -8.4%, after a -23.3% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 1.7x the 13-week average. Participation is unusually strong and confirms that the move is attracting attention.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
14 Aug
21 Aug
28 Aug
4 Sep
11 Sep
18 Sep
25 Sep
2 Oct
9 Oct
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.3112-week average 0.30
12-week confirmation
Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.31Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers33 reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. 3 reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -23.3% over four weeks, -9.0% over 12 weeks, and - over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year0
Trend breadth0.0%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.00Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.
Factor week 09 Oct 2026
Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025
Field coverage 52%
Model confidence 36%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength73/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 28; rank 1 is best.
Value62/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 39; rank 1 is best.
Quality60/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 41; rank 1 is best.
Momentum62/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 39; rank 1 is best.
Growth62/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 39; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- - Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- - Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- - Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- -9.1% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- - Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- - Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- - Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- -45.3% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- - Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- - Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- - Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 2/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- - Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- -8.8% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- -8.8% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 2.7x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningBullish
AVLN shows bullish options pressure with a 28/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.56, expected move of n/a, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Conviction28/100
Expected move%
Put/call volume0.56
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment52/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 15 relevant articles.
3 positive · 12 neutral · 0 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings26dNext report is scheduled for 11 Nov 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-35.9%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility9.0%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
1 May
29 May
26 Jun
24 Jul
21 Aug
18 Sep
9 Oct
Weeks higher9 of 2314 weeks finished lower.
Best week+17.8%Week of 7 Aug.
Worst week-10.9%Week of 25 Sep.
Latest week-8.4%Week of 9 Oct.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains6
Modest gains3
Flat weeks0
Modest losses6
Sharp losses8
Recent vol9.0%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol8.0%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split9/14Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew7.8% / -5.6%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Healthcare
4-week rank- / 100
Group average2.0%
Trend breadth63.0%
Trend63.0%active weekly trend signals
MD54.0%positive activity pressure
RS47.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Biotechnology
4-week rank- / 100
Group average-4.8%
Trend breadth52.0%
Trend52.0%active weekly trend signals
MD30.0%positive activity pressure
RS37.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape30/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 30/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis8/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 0/12, relative leadership 0/12.
Activity pressure 0.31; 3 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 43.08%Next-week expectancy is negative with a 43.08% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors64/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 90; Small Cap Core rank 46 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options35/100Call activity leads. Options balance does not yet confirm the saved weekly stock trend.
2026-10-16 · Use with limits · Priced move Unavailable Sentiment52/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 15 relevant articles.
Avalyn Pharma (NASDAQ:AVLN) Shares Gap Down - Should You Sell? Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings26dNext report is scheduled for 11 Nov 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2026 | 25.76 USD | -8.4% | - | 30.73 USD | 0.00 | - | 2.0M | Off |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 28.13 USD | 0.2% | - | 30.94 USD | 0.00 | - | 1.9M | Off |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 28.08 USD | -10.9% | - | 31.07 USD | 0.00 | - | 1.1M | Off |
| 18 Sep 2026 | 31.52 USD | -6.1% | - | 31.21 USD | 0.00 | - | 1.9M | Off |
| 11 Sep 2026 | 33.57 USD | -10.2% | - | 31.20 USD | 0.00 | - | 732.7K | Off |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 37.39 USD | 7.8% | - | 31.07 USD | 0.00 | - | 1.1M | Off |
| 28 Aug 2026 | 34.69 USD | -9.6% | - | 30.72 USD | 0.00 | - | 741.2K | Off |
| 21 Aug 2026 | 38.37 USD | -2.2% | - | 30.49 USD | 0.00 | - | 824.2K | Off |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 39.25 USD | 15.7% | - | 30.00 USD | 0.00 | - | 1.2M | Off |
| 7 Aug 2026 | 33.92 USD | 17.8% | - | 29.38 USD | 0.00 | - | 720.1K | Off |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 28.79 USD | 3.0% | - | 29.05 USD | 0.00 | - | 738.0K | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 27.95 USD | -1.2% | - | 29.07 USD | 0.00 | - | 1.2M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 28.30 USD | 0.9% | - | 29.17 USD | 0.00 | - | 1.3M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 28.06 USD | -5.6% | - | 29.25 USD | 0.00 | - | 1.9M | Off |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.