- Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
- Next-week expectancy is positive at 55.91% based on similar historical setup states.
NST
ASX
Week ended 07 Aug 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Northern Star Resources Limited · Basic Materials · Gold
Latest close
22.70 AUD
14.1%
latest week
Weekly setup
Mixed setup
The weekly trend is not active. Price is 0.3% above the Trend Line and sits at 39.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 14.1%, after a 10.8% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is expensive relative to peers. The latest news-sentiment score is 50/100.
Setup score
46
out of 100
Latest Close
22.70 AUD
7 Aug 2026
1W Return
14.1%
latest completed week
4W Return
10.8%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
10.7%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
46.2%
24 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
1.2x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
- The share remains more than 20% below its 52-week high.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
14.1%
Latest completed week; four-week move 10.8%.
Indicator stack
25/60
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 55.91%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
News sentiment
50/100
33 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is 0.3% above the Trend Line and sits at 39.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 14.1%, after a 10.8% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 1.2x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.0512-week average 0.04
12-week confirmation
Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure1/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.05Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 10.8% over four weeks, 10.7% over 12 weeks, and 28.5% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year24
Trend breadth46.2%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.03Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change117.8%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-6.15Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change36.9%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is expensive relative to peers.
Factor week 09 Aug 2026
Financial statements through 30 Jun 2025
Field coverage 85%
Model confidence 43%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength57/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 44; rank 1 is best.
Value17/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 84; rank 1 is best.
Quality87/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 14; rank 1 is best.
Momentum92/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 9; rank 1 is best.
Growth98/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 3; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework46/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 24.1x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 5.0x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 9.5x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 2.0% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 56.6% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 31.0% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 10.2% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 9.9% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 30.4% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- 68.8% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- 16.1% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 4/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 2.4% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 0.5% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 3.0% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 0.0x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment50/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 33 relevant articles.
5 positive · 24 neutral · 4 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-28.4%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility6.5%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
13 Feb
13 Mar
10 Apr
8 May
5 Jun
3 Jul
7 Aug
Weeks higher10 of 2616 weeks finished lower.
Best week+18.1%Week of 3 Apr.
Worst week-19.4%Week of 13 Mar.
Latest week+14.1%Week of 7 Aug.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains8
Modest gains2
Flat weeks0
Modest losses9
Sharp losses7
Recent vol6.5%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol7.3%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split26/26Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew6.6% / -5.1%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorAU Basic Materials
4-week rank42 / 100
Group average7.2%
Trend breadth21.0%
Trend21.0%active weekly trend signals
MD27.0%positive activity pressure
RS52.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryAU Gold
4-week rank36 / 100
Group average5.5%
Trend breadth6.0%
Trend6.0%active weekly trend signals
MD17.0%positive activity pressure
RS30.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape40/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 40/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis11/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 1/12, relative leadership 0/12.
Activity pressure 0.05; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 55.91%Next-week expectancy is positive with a 55.91% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors62/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 7 SVQF46/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 138.5 of 257 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment50/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 33 relevant articles.
Price to earnings forward of Northern Star Resources Ltd – ASX:NST Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | 22.70 AUD | 14.1% | 22.63 AUD | 17.46 AUD | 0.03 | -6.15 | 26.2M | Off |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 19.90 AUD | -0.2% | 22.69 AUD | 17.38 AUD | -0.23 | -14.82 | 23.2M | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 19.93 AUD | 3.6% | 22.83 AUD | 17.31 AUD | -0.19 | -12.38 | 24.9M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 19.24 AUD | -6.1% | 23.06 AUD | 17.26 AUD | -0.21 | -15.34 | 18.6M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 20.48 AUD | -7.6% | 23.27 AUD | 17.20 AUD | -0.16 | -9.75 | 19.5M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 22.16 AUD | 7.6% | 23.49 AUD | 17.15 AUD | -0.42 | -2.43 | 7.2M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 20.59 AUD | -1.3% | 23.62 AUD | 17.08 AUD | -0.69 | -8.22 | 3.8M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 20.87 AUD | 8.4% | 23.84 AUD | 17.02 AUD | -0.98 | -7.48 | 14.1M | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 19.26 AUD | -3.1% | 23.98 AUD | 16.96 AUD | -1.17 | -14.38 | 5.1M | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 19.88 AUD | 5.7% | 24.22 AUD | 16.91 AUD | -1.17 | -10.05 | 50.0M | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 18.81 AUD | -0.1% | 24.36 AUD | 16.87 AUD | -1.22 | -15.99 | 14.8M | Off |
| 22 May 2026 | 18.83 AUD | -8.1% | 24.55 AUD | 16.83 AUD | -1.15 | -15.35 | 39.2M | Off |
| 15 May 2026 | 20.50 AUD | -3.1% | 24.70 AUD | 16.78 AUD | -1.14 | -7.71 | 26.4M | Off |
| 8 May 2026 | 21.16 AUD | -0.0% | 24.88 AUD | 16.73 AUD | -1.04 | -5.83 | 38.2M | Off |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.