- No strong opportunity cluster is confirmed yet; monitor trend and activity pressure.
VML
ASX
Week ended 07 Aug 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Vital Metals Limited · Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining
Latest close
0.10 AUD
-4.8%
latest week
Weekly setup
Weak trend
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -28.3% below the Trend Line and sits at 2.2% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -4.8%, after a -9.1% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. The latest news-sentiment score is 51/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal.
Setup score
18
out of 100
Latest Close
0.10 AUD
7 Aug 2026
1W Return
-4.8%
latest completed week
4W Return
-9.1%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-25.9%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
40.4%
21 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.6x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-4.8%
Latest completed week; four-week move -9.1%.
Indicator stack
22/32
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Negative 28.74%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
News sentiment
51/100
17 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -28.3% below the Trend Line and sits at 2.2% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -4.8%, after a -9.1% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.6x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.1812-week average 0.10
12-week confirmation
Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.18Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -9.1% over four weeks, -25.9% over 12 weeks, and 5.3% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year21
Trend breadth40.4%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.99Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change1.6%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-43.74Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-25.5%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.
Factor week 09 Aug 2026
Financial statements through 30 Jun 2024
Field coverage 70%
Model confidence 21%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength8/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 93; rank 1 is best.
Value22/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 79; rank 1 is best.
Quality20/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 81; rank 1 is best.
Momentum21/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 80; rank 1 is best.
Growth21/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 80; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 10.7x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 9.3x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- - Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- -19.8% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 31.0% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- -148.2% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- -168.1% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- -5.3% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- - Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- - Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- - Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 4/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- - Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- -21.6% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- -21.6% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 0.7x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment51/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 17 relevant articles.
1 positive · 15 neutral · 1 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-75.6%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility7.2%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
13 Feb
13 Mar
10 Apr
8 May
5 Jun
3 Jul
7 Aug
Weeks higher9 of 2613 weeks finished lower.
Best week+11.1%Week of 17 Apr.
Worst week-18.2%Week of 20 Mar.
Latest week-4.8%Week of 7 Aug.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains6
Modest gains3
Flat weeks4
Modest losses4
Sharp losses9
Recent vol7.2%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol14.9%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split22/25Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew13.0% / -9.2%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorAU Basic Materials
4-week rank- / 100
Group average7.2%
Trend breadth21.0%
Trend21.0%active weekly trend signals
MD27.0%positive activity pressure
RS52.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryAU Other Industrial Metals & Mining
4-week rank- / 100
Group average1.0%
Trend breadth22.0%
Trend22.0%active weekly trend signals
MD20.0%positive activity pressure
RS39.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape21/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 21/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis12/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 0/12, relative leadership 0/12.
Activity pressure 0.18; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 28.74%Next-week expectancy is negative with a 28.74% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors16/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 90 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment51/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 17 relevant articles.
David Herlihy Appointed as Director of Vital Metals Limited Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | 0.10 AUD | -4.8% | 0.14 AUD | 0.20 AUD | -0.99 | -43.74 | 111.6K | Off |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 0.10 AUD | 0.0% | 0.14 AUD | 0.20 AUD | -0.91 | -39.04 | 151.5K | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 0.10 AUD | 5.0% | 0.14 AUD | 0.20 AUD | -0.95 | -37.57 | 255.1K | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 0.10 AUD | -9.1% | 0.15 AUD | 0.21 AUD | -0.95 | -40.68 | 103.8K | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 0.11 AUD | 4.8% | 0.15 AUD | 0.21 AUD | -1.00 | -34.86 | 65.7K | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 0.10 AUD | 5.0% | 0.15 AUD | 0.21 AUD | -1.19 | -38.00 | 41.7K | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 0.10 AUD | -9.1% | 0.16 AUD | 0.21 AUD | -1.28 | -40.40 | 175.8K | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 0.11 AUD | 10.0% | 0.16 AUD | 0.22 AUD | -1.32 | -34.94 | 143.0K | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 0.10 AUD | -13.0% | 0.16 AUD | 0.22 AUD | -1.17 | -40.64 | 36.6K | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 0.12 AUD | -11.5% | 0.17 AUD | 0.22 AUD | -0.94 | -30.75 | 7.5K | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 0.13 AUD | -7.1% | 0.17 AUD | 0.22 AUD | -0.83 | -22.56 | 287.3K | Off |
| 22 May 2026 | 0.14 AUD | 3.7% | 0.18 AUD | 0.22 AUD | -0.80 | -15.62 | 539.4K | Off |
| 15 May 2026 | 0.14 AUD | -3.6% | 0.18 AUD | 0.23 AUD | -0.96 | -18.04 | 388.3K | Off |
| 8 May 2026 | 0.14 AUD | -6.7% | 0.19 AUD | 0.23 AUD | -1.06 | -15.80 | 144.4K | Off |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.