- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
PDI
ASX
Week ended 07 Aug 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Predictive Discovery Limited · Basic Materials · Gold
Latest close
0.76 AUD
14.3%
latest week
Weekly setup
Mixed setup
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -6.8% below the Trend Line and sits at 58.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 14.3%, after a 7.8% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. The latest news-sentiment score is 54/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal.
Setup score
38
out of 100
Latest Close
0.76 AUD
7 Aug 2026
1W Return
14.3%
latest completed week
4W Return
7.8%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-18.3%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
80.8%
42 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.8x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
14.3%
Latest completed week; four-week move 7.8%.
Indicator stack
44/25
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
News sentiment
54/100
21 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -6.8% below the Trend Line and sits at 58.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 14.3%, after a 7.8% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.8x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.2412-week average 0.47
12-week confirmation
Trend active2/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership9/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.24Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers11 reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. 1 reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 7.8% over four weeks, -18.3% over 12 weeks, and 68.9% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year42
Trend breadth80.8%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-1.20Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-41.7%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership1.32Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change13.1%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.
Factor week 09 Aug 2026
Financial statements through 30 Jun 2024
Field coverage 52%
Model confidence 15%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength30/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 71; rank 1 is best.
Value35/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 66; rank 1 is best.
Quality33/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 68; rank 1 is best.
Momentum35/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 66; rank 1 is best.
Growth35/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 66; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- - Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- - Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- - Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- -1.1% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- - Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- - Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- - Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- -5.6% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- - Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- - Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- - Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 1/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- - Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- -1.3% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- -1.3% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 2.9x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment54/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 21 relevant articles.
5 positive · 16 neutral · 0 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-27.3%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility12.5%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
13 Feb
13 Mar
10 Apr
8 May
5 Jun
3 Jul
7 Aug
Weeks higher15 of 2610 weeks finished lower.
Best week+20.4%Week of 19 Jun.
Worst week-23.8%Week of 26 Jun.
Latest week+14.3%Week of 7 Aug.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains9
Modest gains6
Flat weeks1
Modest losses1
Sharp losses9
Recent vol12.5%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol10.6%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split32/19Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew7.9% / -9.1%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorAU Basic Materials
4-week rank53 / 100
Group average7.2%
Trend breadth21.0%
Trend21.0%active weekly trend signals
MD27.0%positive activity pressure
RS52.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryAU Gold
4-week rank41 / 100
Group average5.5%
Trend breadth6.0%
Trend6.0%active weekly trend signals
MD17.0%positive activity pressure
RS30.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape37/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 37/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis29/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 2/12, activity pressure 0/12, relative leadership 9/12.
Activity pressure 0.24; 1 reversal markers Factors32/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 69 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment54/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 21 relevant articles.
Why Are Telix (ASX:TLX), Mesoblast (ASX:MSB) and Predictive Discovery (ASX:PDI) Drawing Attention? Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | 0.76 AUD | 14.3% | 0.82 AUD | 0.41 AUD | -1.20 | 1.32 | 57.7M | Off |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 0.67 AUD | 5.6% | 0.82 AUD | 0.41 AUD | -1.32 | -7.83 | 73.4M | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 0.63 AUD | 3.3% | 0.82 AUD | 0.41 AUD | -1.26 | -10.11 | 67.5M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 0.61 AUD | -13.5% | 0.83 AUD | 0.40 AUD | -1.23 | -12.79 | 47.9M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 0.70 AUD | -7.8% | 0.83 AUD | 0.40 AUD | -0.84 | 1.17 | 68.2M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 0.77 AUD | 6.3% | 0.83 AUD | 0.40 AUD | -0.86 | 10.10 | 13.0M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 0.72 AUD | -23.8% | 0.83 AUD | 0.39 AUD | -0.95 | 5.58 | 26.3M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 0.94 AUD | 20.4% | 0.83 AUD | 0.39 AUD | -0.91 | 38.85 | 202.8M | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 0.79 AUD | 1.3% | 0.81 AUD | 0.39 AUD | -1.23 | 17.46 | 9.2M | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 0.78 AUD | 4.7% | 0.81 AUD | 0.38 AUD | -0.92 | 19.58 | 7.6M | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 0.74 AUD | 2.8% | 0.80 AUD | 0.38 AUD | -0.60 | 14.07 | 171.0M | On |
| 22 May 2026 | 0.72 AUD | -22.6% | 0.79 AUD | 0.37 AUD | -0.38 | 13.09 | 106.3M | On |
| 15 May 2026 | 0.93 AUD | -1.6% | 0.79 AUD | 0.37 AUD | 0.01 | 47.74 | 74.2M | On |
| 8 May 2026 | 0.94 AUD | 3.8% | 0.78 AUD | 0.37 AUD | -0.07 | 50.65 | 101.2M | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.