Completed-session technical desk

Rough Rice Technicals

Aligned upward. Momentum is extended, the latest impulse is positive and expanding, and directional evidence describes a strong directional trend.

Daily ReportReturn to full dossierGrains
Technical stateAligned upward820 completed sessions · through 2026-09-01
Price structureAligned upwardcompleted-session alignment
Momentum71.9Extended
Volatility2.1%percentile 50
Directional strength36.8Strong directional trend

Seasonal market anatomy · rolling 156 weeks maximum

Recurring pressure and turning-point behaviour

The first chart asks when price pressure has tended to recur during the year. The second aligns meaningful peaks and troughs to show how this market has approached and moved away from turning points.

156 completed weeks
4 seasonal cycles represented
Current seasonal windowHistorically supportiveweek 36 · median 1.83%
Strongest recurring build-up8 Jan - 4 Febmedian four-week pressure 9.88% · 75% directional agreement
Strongest recurring decline12 Feb - 10 Marmedian four-week pressure -7.18% · 67% directional agreement
Interpretation boundaryPrice pressure, not causalityRecurring moves can overlap demand or supply calendars; price history alone cannot prove which caused them.

Annual pressure histogram

Where recurring strength and weakness have appeared

Bars show the median return for each week of the calendar year. The agreement line shows how consistently the available cycles moved in that direction.

Supportive pressureAdverse pressureDirectional agreement

Turning-point anatomy

Typical build-up to peaks and recovery from troughs

Each retained event is reset to the same reference level. The chart compares the typical approach to a peak with the typical recovery from a trough.

Peak profileTrough profileEvent level
ApproachLeft of centre shows the typical path leading into the retained event.
Event levelThe centre is reset to zero so peaks and troughs can be compared on one scale.
ResolutionRight of centre shows how price typically moved away from the retained event.

These are empirical timing windows from the retained price record, not a fixed seasonal forecast. Weather, inventories, harvest timing, contract rolls, policy and shocks can move or erase a historical pattern.

Technical evidence matrix · rolling six months

Six independent views of the same market

The operational panels use the latest six months of completed sessions. Oscillators, participation and volatility add context but do not override price structure.

Through 2026-09-01
126 sessions shown
Price structureAligned upwardcompleted-session alignment
Momentum71.9Extended
Volatility2.1%percentile 50
Directional strength36.8Strong directional trend
Participation38%of typical session volume
ImpulsePositive and expandingmomentum spread versus signal

Price architecture

Trend and volatility envelope

Price location relative to adaptive trend references and its recent volatility envelope.

Momentum oscillator

RSI and stochastic pressure

Two independent oscillators show whether directional pressure is broadening, fading or becoming stretched.

Impulse

MACD expansion and rollover

The spread between faster and slower price pressure shows acceleration, deceleration and signal-line crossings.

Risk geometry

Range pressure and envelope width

Normalised true range and envelope width distinguish ordinary movement from volatility expansion.

Market participation

Volume pressure and cumulative balance

Current volume is compared with its recent norm while cumulative balance tracks whether activity accompanies rising or falling closes.

Trend quality

Directional movement and ADX

Directional movement separates upward and downward pressure; ADX measures trend strength without assigning direction.

Technical indicators are descriptive transformations of completed market sessions. They can lag, conflict, remain extended, or change rapidly after gaps. Volume differs by venue and contract construction; it is used as participation context rather than proof of direction.

Evidence context