Bitcoin Faces Key Test as Fed Rate Hike Risks Rise

Bitcoin is losing momentum just as markets face one of the most important macroeconomic tests of September. The cryptocurrency is struggling below $80,000, while rising Treasury yields, higher oil prices and growing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike are putting pressure on risk assets.

Bitcoin recently failed to break decisively above the $82,200 resistance area and pulled back after retesting the level. Trading volume has fallen about 13% over the past 24 hours, while nearly $390 million in crypto positions were liquidated, mostly bullish long positions. Open interest also declined 0.44%, suggesting traders are becoming more cautious.

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The bigger driver is the Fed. Markets are watching Thursday’s PPI and Friday’s CPI reports for clues about the September 15-16 policy meeting. Reuters reported that markets are pricing roughly a 60% chance of a hike, while UBS now expects two Fed hikes this year. The ECB is also expected to raise rates, adding to the global tightening backdrop.

Fund managers are not uniformly bearish. CoinShares’ research argues that Bitcoin has increasingly traded like gold and says the market may be underpricing the chance of a Fed hold. Coinbase Institutional also remains constructive while Bitcoin stays above its 200-day moving average near $69,000.

Still, the near-term challenge is clear. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed sharply (4.85%) , while Brent crude has moved above $100 a barrel, raising fresh inflation concerns.

Bitcoin’s outlook now depends heavily on inflation. A softer CPI and PPI could revive expectations for easier policy and give BTC another chance to challenge $82,200. But hotter inflation could strengthen the case for higher rates, keeping Bitcoin under pressure and potentially pushing it toward lower support levels. For now, the bias remains cautious until Bitcoin can reclaim resistance with stronger volume.