Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NASDAQ · Earnings Dossier
GSHD earnings intelligence
Goosehead Insurance IncFinancial Services · Insurance Brokers · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Mixed earnings transmission
Delivery and market response do not currently form a persistent directional pattern.
Evidence100/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Wednesday 21 October 2026
Time unconfirmed · Fiscal period ending 30 Sep 2026
66event risk
Elevated
Countdown69 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate0.53 USDprovider consensus
Estimate growth+15.2%versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement13.1%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Earnings power is leading market price; the spread is closing and has persisted through 6 updates. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move13.8%2023-08-18 to 2026-08-07
Earnings move94.6%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread80.9 ptsClosing
Current multiple36.0xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure61/100Moderate
Model confidence94/100High
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Persistent earnings lead
Earnings power has led market price across several updates.
Repricing may be starting
The longstanding earnings lead is beginning to close through price confirmation.
Business quality supportive
Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive.
Beat rate66.7%8 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise+27.8%median 14.6%
Delivery streak22 consecutive beats
Average response+3.1%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation73%same directional sign
Surprise variability36.5 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth18.0%year on year
Revenue growth17.7%year on year
Average surprise32.6%latest four quarters
SUE0.74standardised surprise
Net margin8.8%trailing basis
Cash conversion2.55xcash flow / net income
P/E44.0xcurrent snapshot
Data completeness93%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close65.20 USDcompleted week
13-week return59.6%price momentum
Fair-value gap-14.2%price versus current fair value
Relative strength-6.5exchange benchmark
Trend signalInactiveweekly architecture
Next-week stateUndecided51.6%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period22 Jul 202630 Jun 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.50 / 0.31USD
Surprise+61.3%Beat
EPS growth+2.0%year on year
Revenue / growth113389000+20.6% · USD
Next close / four weeks+8.2% / -completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period22 Apr 202631 Mar 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.37 / 0.20USD
Surprise+85.0%Beat
EPS growth+42.3%year on year
Revenue / growth93076000+23.1% · USD
Next close / four weeks+10.1% / -14.1%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period17 Feb 202631 Dec 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.48 / 0.57USD
Surprise-15.8%Miss
EPS growth-39.2%year on year
Revenue / growth105258000+12.1% · USD
Next close / four weeks-8.7% / -9.3%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period22 Oct 202530 Sep 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.46 / 0.46USD
Surprise0.0%In-Line
EPS growth-8.0%year on year
Revenue / growth90435000+15.9% · USD
Next close / four weeks+10.3% / +3.0%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period23 Jul 202530 Jun 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.49 / 0.50USD
Surprise-2.0%Miss
EPS growth+14.0%year on year
Revenue / growth94027000+20.4% · USD
Next close / four weeks-14.2% / -15.7%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period23 Apr 202531 Mar 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.26 / 0.22USD
Surprise+18.2%Beat
EPS growth-7.1%year on year
Revenue / growth75583000+17.3% · USD
Next close / four weeks-7.0% / +6.3%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period24 Feb 202531 Dec 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.79 / 0.40USD
Surprise+98.6%Beat
EPS growth+182.1%year on year
Revenue / growth93922000+49.0% · USD
Next close / four weeks+15.5% / +9.2%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period23 Oct 202430 Sep 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.50 / 0.45USD
Surprise+11.1%Beat
EPS growth+8.7%year on year
Revenue / growth78035000+9.9% · USD
Next close / four weeks+12.6% / +23.5%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period24 Jul 202430 Jun 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.43 / 0.39USD
Surprise+10.3%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth78088000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+40.7% / +36.1%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period24 Apr 202431 Mar 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.28 / 0.21USD
Surprise+33.3%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth64460000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-4.0% / +9.6%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period21 Feb 202431 Dec 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.28 / 0.33USD
Surprise-15.2%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth63014000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-17.7% / -18.3%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period25 Oct 202330 Sep 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.46 / 0.31USD
Surprise+48.4%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth71030000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-8.0% / +2.6%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.