Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NASDAQ · Earnings Dossier
COST earnings intelligence
Costco Wholesale CorpConsumer Defensive · Discount Stores · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Delivery strong, expectations demanding
Results have usually cleared estimates, but price has not consistently rewarded the delivery.
Evidence95/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Thursday 24 September 2026
Time unconfirmed · Fiscal period ending 31 Aug 2026
26event risk
Moderate
Countdown42 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate6.51 USDprovider consensus
Estimate growth+10.9%versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement3.3%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Market price is leading earnings power; the spread is closing and has persisted through 11 updates. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move81.0%2023-08-18 to 2026-08-07
Earnings move49.9%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread-31.1 ptsClosing
Current multiple46.9xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure43/100Moderate
Model confidence90/100High
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Business quality supportive
Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive.
Expectations elevated
Price is leading delivered earnings power by a meaningful margin.
Model qualification
1 historical earnings update date is estimated.
Model qualification
The direction is sensitive to the comparison horizon.
Beat rate83.3%10 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise+2.7%median 2.6%
Delivery streak11 consecutive misses
Average response-0.8%11 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation40%same directional sign
Surprise variability3.4 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth12.7%year on year
Revenue growth9.2%year on year
Average surprise3.5%latest four quarters
SUE0.59standardised surprise
Net margin3.0%trailing basis
Cash conversion2.40xcash flow / net income
P/E47.6xcurrent snapshot
Data completeness100%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close947.82 USDcompleted week
13-week return-6.0%price momentum
Fair-value gap10.1%price versus current fair value
Relative strength-13.2exchange benchmark
Trend signalInactiveweekly architecture
Next-week statePositive57.8%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / perioddate unavailable31 May 2026 · period only
EPS actual / estimate4.93 / 4.98USD
Surprise-1.0%Miss
EPS growth+15.2%year on year
Revenue / growth70527000000+11.6% · USD
Next close / four weeks- / -completed weekly closes
ReadUnavailableresult versus price sign
Reported / period5 Mar 202628 Feb 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate4.93 / 4.54USD
Surprise+8.6%Beat
EPS growth+22.6%year on year
Revenue / growth69597000000+9.2% · USD
Next close / four weeks-1.3% / -2.7%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period11 Dec 202530 Nov 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate4.50 / 4.27USD
Surprise+5.4%Beat
EPS growth+11.4%year on year
Revenue / growth67307000000+8.3% · USD
Next close / four weeks-1.1% / -4.5%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period25 Sep 202531 Aug 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate5.87 / 5.82USD
Surprise+0.9%Beat
EPS growth+11.0%year on year
Revenue / growth86156000000+8.1% · USD
Next close / four weeks-3.7% / -1.6%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period5 Jun 202531 May 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate4.28 / 4.23USD
Surprise+1.2%Beat
EPS growth+13.2%year on year
Revenue / growth63205000000+8.0% · USD
Next close / four weeks-2.4% / -5.3%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period6 Mar 202528 Feb 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate4.02 / 4.23USD
Surprise-5.0%Miss
EPS growth+8.4%year on year
Revenue / growth63723000000+9.0% · USD
Next close / four weeks-8.0% / -11.3%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period12 Dec 202430 Nov 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate4.04 / 3.80USD
Surprise+6.3%Beat
EPS growth+12.8%year on year
Revenue / growth62151000000+7.5% · USD
Next close / four weeks-0.3% / -7.7%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period26 Sep 202431 Aug 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate5.29 / 5.08USD
Surprise+4.1%Beat
EPS growth+8.8%year on year
Revenue / growth79697000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-2.4% / -1.9%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period6 Jun 202431 May 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.78 / 3.70USD
Surprise+2.2%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth58515000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+4.4% / +5.0%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period7 Mar 202429 Feb 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.71 / 3.60USD
Surprise+3.1%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth58442000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-3.2% / -2.2%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period14 Dec 202330 Nov 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.58 / 3.42USD
Surprise+4.7%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth57799000000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+7.9% / +9.8%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period26 Sep 202331 Aug 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate4.86 / 4.79USD
Surprise+1.5%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+1.1% / -1.0%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.