Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NYSE · Earnings Dossier
ZTO earnings intelligence
ZTO Express (Cayman) IncIndustrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Mixed earnings transmission
Delivery and market response do not currently form a persistent directional pattern.
Evidence99/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Tuesday 18 August 2026
After the close · Fiscal period ending 30 Jun 2026
56event risk
Elevated
Countdown6 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate-provider consensus
Estimate growth-versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement5.4%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Earnings power is leading market price; the spread is widening and has persisted through 11 updates. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move7.8%2023-08-18 to 2026-08-07
Earnings move24.1%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread16.3 ptsWidening
Current multiple2.0xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure50/100Moderate
Model confidence92/100High
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Persistent earnings lead
Earnings power has led market price across several updates.
Business quality supportive
Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive.
Fresh improvement awaiting confirmation
Earnings improved at the latest reported update, but market price remains below its pre-update level.
Model qualification
The direction is sensitive to the comparison horizon.
Beat rate66.7%8 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise+3.2%median 2.7%
Delivery streak11 consecutive misses
Average response-0.5%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation73%same directional sign
Surprise variability9.0 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth-2.4%year on year
Revenue growth13.3%year on year
Average surprise2.5%latest four quarters
SUE0.11standardised surprise
Net margin17.9%trailing basis
Cash conversion2.24xcash flow / net income
P/E2.0xcurrent snapshot
Data completeness100%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close23.60 USDcompleted week
13-week return-5.8%price momentum
Fair-value gap16.9%price versus current fair value
Relative strength-3.1exchange benchmark
Trend signalInactiveweekly architecture
Next-week stateUndecided46.6%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period19 May 202631 Mar 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.95 / 3.08USD
Surprise-4.2%Miss
EPS growth+8.9%year on year
Revenue / growth13282364000+22.0% · USD
Next close / four weeks-3.2% / -3.8%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period17 Mar 202631 Dec 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.31 / 3.13USD
Surprise+5.8%Beat
EPS growth+2.2%year on year
Revenue / growth14310423266+10.8% · USD
Next close / four weeks+1.7% / +4.6%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period19 Nov 202530 Sep 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.06 / 2.51USD
Surprise+21.9%Beat
EPS growth+5.2%year on year
Revenue / growth11802676694+10.6% · USD
Next close / four weeks+1.5% / +13.2%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period19 Aug 202530 Jun 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.48 / 2.86USD
Surprise-13.3%Miss
EPS growth-26.6%year on year
Revenue / growth11831807000+10.3% · USD
Next close / four weeks-4.1% / -4.3%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period20 May 202531 Mar 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.71 / 2.90USD
Surprise-6.6%Miss
EPS growth+1.1%year on year
Revenue / growth10891465000+9.4% · USD
Next close / four weeks-9.2% / -6.5%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period18 Mar 202531 Dec 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.24 / 3.28USD
Surprise-1.3%Miss
EPS growth+21.8%year on year
Revenue / growth12919702000+21.7% · USD
Next close / four weeks+0.4% / -6.8%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period19 Nov 202430 Sep 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.91 / 2.84USD
Surprise+2.5%Beat
EPS growth+2.8%year on year
Revenue / growth10675048000+17.6% · USD
Next close / four weeks-8.5% / -8.8%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period20 Aug 202430 Jun 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.38 / 3.24USD
Surprise+4.3%Beat
EPS growth+10.1%year on year
Revenue / growth10725964000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+4.6% / +13.6%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period15 May 202431 Mar 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.68 / 2.35USD
Surprise+14.0%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth9960006000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+17.9% / +13.5%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period19 Mar 202431 Dec 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.66 / 2.63USD
Surprise+1.1%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth10619434000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-3.6% / -9.0%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period16 Nov 202330 Sep 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.83 / 2.75USD
Surprise+2.9%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth9075918000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-6.5% / -11.7%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period29 Aug 202330 Jun 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate3.07 / 2.77USD
Surprise+10.8%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+3.5% / +0.3%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.