Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NASDAQ · Earnings Dossier
MRCY earnings intelligence
Mercury Systems IncIndustrials · Aerospace & Defense · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Mixed earnings transmission
Delivery and market response do not currently form a persistent directional pattern.
Evidence99/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Tuesday 18 August 2026
After the close · Fiscal period ending 30 Jun 2026
81event risk
High
Countdown6 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate0.20 USDprovider consensus
Estimate growth-57.4%versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement12.1%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Market price is leading earnings power; the spread is widening and has persisted through 11 updates. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move189.5%2023-08-18 to 2026-08-07
Earnings move14.9%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread-174.6 ptsWidening
Current multiple93.7xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure97/100Extreme
Model confidence77/100High
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Expectations stretched
Price has moved materially faster than delivered earnings power.
Model qualification
The direction is sensitive to the comparison horizon.
Beat rate58.3%7 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise+46.6%median 131.8%
Delivery streak44 consecutive beats
Average response+4.2%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation75%same directional sign
Surprise variability323.1 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue growth9.0%year on year
Average surprise188.7%latest four quarters
SUE0.18standardised surprise
Net margin-1.5%trailing basis
Cash conversion-8.51xcash flow / net income
P/E-current snapshot
Data completeness86%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close108.64 USDcompleted week
13-week return20.3%price momentum
Fair-value gap100.9%price versus current fair value
Relative strength11.9exchange benchmark
Trend signalActiveweekly architecture
Next-week stateUndecided55.0%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period5 May 202631 Mar 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.27 / 0.07USD
Surprise+285.7%Beat
EPS growth+350.0%year on year
Revenue / growth235759000+11.5% · USD
Next close / four weeks+15.0% / +42.2%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period3 Feb 202631 Dec 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.16 / 0.06USD
Surprise+166.7%Beat
EPS growth+128.6%year on year
Revenue / growth232872000+4.4% · USD
Next close / four weeks-12.4% / -5.2%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period4 Nov 202530 Sep 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.26 / 0.09USD
Surprise+188.9%Beat
EPS growth+550.0%year on year
Revenue / growth225209000+10.2% · USD
Next close / four weeks-4.3% / -9.7%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period11 Aug 202530 Jun 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.47 / 0.22USD
Surprise+113.6%Beat
EPS growth+104.3%year on year
Revenue / growth273106000+9.9% · USD
Next close / four weeks+26.3% / +30.5%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period6 May 202531 Mar 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.06 / 0.07USD
Surprise-14.3%Miss
EPS growth+123.1%year on year
Revenue / growth211358000+3.4% · USD
Next close / four weeks-9.9% / -4.3%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period4 Feb 202531 Dec 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.07 / -0.04USD
Surprise+275.0%Beat
EPS growth+116.7%year on year
Revenue / growth223125000-10.2% · USD
Next close / four weeks+8.8% / +6.5%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period5 Nov 202430 Sep 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.04 / -0.08USD
Surprise+150.0%Beat
EPS growth+116.7%year on year
Revenue / growth204431000+13.0% · USD
Next close / four weeks+28.7% / +24.0%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period13 Aug 202430 Jun 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.23 / -0.04USD
Surprise+675.0%Beat
EPS growth+109.1%year on year
Revenue / growth248563000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+12.6% / +2.2%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period7 May 202431 Mar 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-0.26 / -0.06USD
Surprise-333.3%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth204431000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-3.6% / +6.6%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period6 Feb 202431 Dec 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-0.42 / 0.08USD
Surprise-625.0%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth248563000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-4.1% / -2.7%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period7 Nov 202330 Sep 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-0.24 / 0.17USD
Surprise-241.2%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth180991000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-13.1% / -5.5%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period15 Aug 202330 Jun 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.11 / 0.59USD
Surprise-81.4%Miss
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+6.3% / +2.9%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.