Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NASDAQ · Earnings Dossier
PAYX earnings intelligence
Paychex IncTechnology · Software - Application · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Delivery strong, expectations demanding
Results have usually cleared estimates, but price has not consistently rewarded the delivery.
Evidence99/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Tuesday 29 September 2026
Time unconfirmed · Fiscal period ending 31 Aug 2026
21event risk
Contained
Countdown47 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate1.33 USDprovider consensus
Estimate growth+9.0%versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement2.8%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Earnings power is leading market price; the spread is closing and has persisted through 3 updates. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move9.2%2023-08-18 to 2026-08-07
Earnings move28.7%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread19.5 ptsClosing
Current multiple21.8xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure32/100Low
Model confidence100/100High
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Persistent earnings lead
Earnings power has led market price across several updates.
Repricing may be starting
The longstanding earnings lead is beginning to close through price confirmation.
Business quality supportive
Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive.
Beat rate91.7%11 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise+1.3%median 1.7%
Delivery streak44 consecutive beats
Average response-0.7%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation44%same directional sign
Surprise variability0.9 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth6.2%year on year
Revenue growth16.9%year on year
Average surprise1.8%latest four quarters
SUE1.22standardised surprise
Net margin27.0%trailing basis
Cash conversion1.59xcash flow / net income
P/E24.3xcurrent snapshot
Data completeness100%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close120.04 USDcompleted week
13-week return29.5%price momentum
Fair-value gap1.4%price versus current fair value
Relative strength-2.5exchange benchmark
Trend signalActiveweekly architecture
Next-week stateUndecided54.2%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period24 Jun 202631 May 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.32 / 1.31USD
Surprise+0.8%Beat
EPS growth+10.9%year on year
Revenue / growth1605500000+12.5% · USD
Next close / four weeks+0.7% / +15.3%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period25 Mar 202628 Feb 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.71 / 1.67USD
Surprise+2.4%Beat
EPS growth+14.8%year on year
Revenue / growth1808900000+19.9% · USD
Next close / four weeks-0.9% / -0.6%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period19 Dec 202530 Nov 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.26 / 1.23USD
Surprise+2.4%Beat
EPS growth+10.5%year on year
Revenue / growth1557600000+18.3% · USD
Next close / four weeks-1.1% / -1.5%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period30 Sep 202531 Aug 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.22 / 1.20USD
Surprise+1.7%Beat
EPS growth+5.2%year on year
Revenue / growth1540000000+16.8% · USD
Next close / four weeks-2.8% / -2.8%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period25 Jun 202531 May 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.19 / 1.20USD
Surprise-0.8%Miss
EPS growth+6.2%year on year
Revenue / growth1427300000+10.2% · USD
Next close / four weeks-3.5% / -3.8%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period26 Mar 202528 Feb 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.49 / 1.48USD
Surprise+0.7%Beat
EPS growth+8.0%year on year
Revenue / growth1509000000+4.8% · USD
Next close / four weeks+5.6% / +1.3%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period19 Dec 202430 Nov 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.14 / 1.12USD
Surprise+1.8%Beat
EPS growth+5.6%year on year
Revenue / growth1316900000+4.7% · USD
Next close / four weeks-1.0% / -1.4%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period30 Sep 202431 Aug 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.16 / 1.14USD
Surprise+1.8%Beat
EPS growth+1.8%year on year
Revenue / growth1318500000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+4.3% / +5.5%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period25 Jun 202431 May 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.12 / 1.10USD
Surprise+1.8%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth1295100000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-5.9% / -2.6%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period1 Apr 202429 Feb 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.38 / 1.37USD
Surprise+0.7%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth1439300000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-0.3% / -2.3%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period21 Dec 202330 Nov 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.08 / 1.07USD
Surprise+0.9%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth1257900000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-5.5% / -5.6%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period27 Sep 202331 Aug 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.14 / 1.12USD
Surprise+1.8%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+2.1% / +2.7%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.