PAYX NASDAQ Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Paychex Inc · Technology · Software - Application

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Latest close 116.8 USD
3.9% latest week
Weekly setup

Constructive, but selective

The weekly trend is active. Price is 18.9% above the Trend Line and sits at 61.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 3.9%, after a 11.0% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth is moderate; valuation is expensive relative to peers. Options positioning is mixed with 36/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 53/100. Near-term considerations: earnings are due in 56d.

Setup score 54 out of 100
Latest Close 116.8 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return 3.9% latest completed week
4W Return 11.0% short-term follow-through
12W Return 26.0% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 3.8% 2 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.3x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 2-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
What could go wrong
  • Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 3.9% Latest completed week; four-week move 11.0%. Indicator stack 9/81 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Options pressure Mixed 36/100 conviction; expected move 6.5%. News sentiment 53/100 51 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 56d Next report is scheduled for 29 Sep 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 18.9% above the Trend Line and sits at 61.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 3.9%, after a 11.0% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.3x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.5112-week average 0.22

12-week confirmation

Trend active2/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure12/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.51Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals1Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 11.0% over four weeks, 26.0% over 12 weeks, and -13.3% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 2 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W3.9%
4W11.0%
12W26.0%
26W14.8%
52W-13.3%
Active trend streak2 weeks
Active weeks in one year2
Trend breadth3.8%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure1.61Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change26.7%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-1.11Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change93.6%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth is moderate; valuation is expensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 02 Aug 2026 Financial statements through 31 May 2026 Field coverage 97% Model confidence 97%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength29/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 72; rank 1 is best.
Value20/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 81; rank 1 is best.
Quality99/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 2; rank 1 is best.
Momentum22/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 79; rank 1 is best.
Growth71/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 30; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
23.6x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
6.4x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
14.9x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
6.2%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
74.3%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
39.6%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
42.9%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
27.2%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
16.9%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
6.2%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
29.6%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
7/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
3.9%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
1.5%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
5.4%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
1.1x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningMixed

PAYX shows mixed options pressure with a 36/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.85, expected move of 6.5%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Conviction36/100
Expected move6.5%
Put/call volume0.85
Pressure11
Speculation10
Volatility51
Trend agreement92
Open options detail
Insider activity8 / 12

8 acquisitions and 12 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment53/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 51 relevant articles.

14 positive · 32 neutral · 5 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings56dNext report is scheduled for 29 Sep 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move6.5%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-14.9%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility2.9%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher14 of 2612 weeks finished lower.
Best week+7.7%Week of 6 Mar.
Worst week-8.2%Week of 13 Mar.
Latest week+3.9%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains5
Modest gains9
Flat weeks0
Modest losses8
Sharp losses4
Recent vol2.9%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol3.5%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split24/28Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.7% / -2.7%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape46/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 46/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis43/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 2/12, activity pressure 12/12, relative leadership 0/12.

Activity pressure 0.51; No reversal markers Factors43/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 27 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options58/100

PAYX shows mixed options pressure with a 36/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.85, expected move of 6.5%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Mixed · Options-market disagreement · Expected move 6.5% Sentiment53/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 51 relevant articles.

A Look at Paychex Inc (PAYX) After 4.8% Decline -- GF Value $157 Insiders8 / 12

8 acquisitions and 12 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings56d

Next report is scheduled for 29 Sep 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.

 Research flow3 items

1 recent research articles and 2 Market Watch posts are available.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 2026116.8 USD3.9%98.27 USD118.4 USD1.61-1.1120.5MOn
24 Jul 2026112.4 USD-0.7%97.92 USD118.4 USD1.46-5.1115.4MOn
17 Jul 2026113.3 USD6.4%97.89 USD118.4 USD1.44-6.8615.2MOff
10 Jul 2026106.5 USD1.1%97.77 USD118.4 USD1.33-16.8413.8MOff
3 Jul 2026105.3 USD6.5%97.97 USD118.4 USD1.27-17.2014.8MOff
26 Jun 202698.91 USD0.7%98.11 USD118.4 USD1.22-22.4425.5MOff
19 Jun 202698.24 USD-2.4%98.45 USD118.4 USD1.07-27.3117.7MOff
12 Jun 2026100.6 USD0.1%98.81 USD118.4 USD1.02-24.6615.4MOff
5 Jun 2026100.5 USD3.7%99.10 USD118.4 USD0.94-24.1113.7MOff
29 May 202696.98 USD-0.0%99.39 USD118.4 USD0.84-31.1313.4MOff
22 May 202697.00 USD6.0%99.94 USD118.4 USD0.70-30.2613.9MOff
15 May 202691.54 USD-1.3%100.7 USD118.4 USD0.33-34.4318.0MOff
8 May 202692.70 USD1.0%101.7 USD118.5 USD-0.00-34.8215.8MOff
1 May 202691.81 USD3.6%102.7 USD118.5 USD-0.44-32.9815.1MOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.