PAYX NASDAQ Week ended 18 Sep 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Paychex Inc · Technology · Software - Application

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Latest close 116.14 USD
0.3% latest week
Weekly setup

Mixed setup

The weekly trend is active. Price is 12.8% above the Trend Line and sits at 72.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 0.3%, after a -6.7% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is bullish with 50/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 54/100. Near-term considerations: earnings are due in 0d.

Setup score 56 out of 100
Latest Close 116.14 USD 18 Sep 2026
1W Return 0.3% latest completed week
4W Return -6.7% short-term follow-through
12W Return 17.4% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 17.3% 9 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.4x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 9-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
  • Next-week expectancy is positive at 55.50% based on similar historical setup states.
What could go wrong
  • Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 0.3% Latest completed week; four-week move -6.7%. Indicator stack 41/66 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Positive 55.50% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. Options pressure Bullish 50/100 conviction; expected move 7.8%. News sentiment 54/100 43 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 0d Next report is scheduled for 23 Sep 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 12.8% above the Trend Line and sits at 72.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 0.3%, after a -6.7% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.4x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul 7 Aug 14 Aug 21 Aug 28 Aug 4 Sep 11 Sep 18 Sep
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.9012-week average 0.59

12-week confirmation

Trend active9/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure12/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership3/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.90Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -6.7% over four weeks, 17.4% over 12 weeks, and -7.6% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 9 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W0.3%
4W-6.7%
12W17.4%
26W27.1%
52W-7.6%
Active trend streak9 weeks
Active weeks in one year9
Trend breadth17.3%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure1.06Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-38.0%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-1.48Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-137.4%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 18 Sep 2026 Financial statements through 31 May 2026 Field coverage 97% Model confidence 94%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength39/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 62; rank 1 is best.
Value22/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 79; rank 1 is best.
Quality99/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 2; rank 1 is best.
Momentum33/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 68; rank 1 is best.
Growth27/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 74; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
23.5x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
6.3x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
15.2x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
5.2%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
74.3%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
38.6%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
35.7%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
26.5%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
16.9%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
6.2%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
31.1%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
7/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
3.9%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
1.5%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
5.4%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
1.2x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningBullish

PAYX shows bullish options pressure with a 50/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.36, expected move of 7.8%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Conviction50/100
Expected move7.8%
Put/call volume0.36
Pressure52
Speculation42
Volatility59
Trend agreement51
Open options detail
Insider activity8 / 12

8 acquisitions and 12 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment54/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 43 relevant articles.

13 positive · 27 neutral · 3 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings0dNext report is scheduled for 23 Sep 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move7.8%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-9.3%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility3.2%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher17 of 269 weeks finished lower.
Best week+7.5%Week of 17 Apr.
Worst week-6.7%Week of 10 Apr.
Latest week+0.3%Week of 18 Sep.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains4
Modest gains13
Flat weeks0
Modest losses6
Sharp losses3
Recent vol3.2%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol3.6%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split27/25Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.6% / -3.0%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape56/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 56/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis69/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 9/12, activity pressure 12/12, relative leadership 3/12.

Activity pressure 0.90; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 55.50%

Next-week expectancy is positive with a 55.50% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors48/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 23 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options61/100

PAYX shows bullish options pressure with a 50/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.36, expected move of 7.8%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Bullish · Call-side pressure · Expected move 7.8% Sentiment54/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 43 relevant articles.

Paychex (PAYX) Q3 Earnings Report Preview: What To Look For Insiders8 / 12

8 acquisitions and 12 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings0d

Next report is scheduled for 23 Sep 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.

 Research flow6 items

3 recent research articles and 3 Market Watch posts are available.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
18 Sep 2026116.14 USD0.3%102.98 USD118.92 USD1.06-1.4819.9MOn
11 Sep 2026115.80 USD-4.9%102.11 USD118.84 USD1.24-1.449.9MOn
4 Sep 2026121.71 USD-4.2%101.36 USD118.77 USD1.522.2612.2MOn
28 Aug 2026127.04 USD2.1%100.54 USD118.70 USD1.606.398.6MOn
21 Aug 2026124.48 USD2.0%99.70 USD118.60 USD1.713.9612.4MOn
14 Aug 2026122.02 USD1.6%99.02 USD118.51 USD1.73-1.2810.0MOn
7 Aug 2026120.04 USD2.7%98.57 USD118.44 USD1.76-2.5313.7MOn
31 Jul 2026116.84 USD3.9%98.27 USD118.40 USD1.68-1.1120.5MOn
24 Jul 2026112.42 USD-0.7%97.92 USD118.37 USD1.50-5.1115.4MOn
17 Jul 2026113.26 USD6.4%97.89 USD118.38 USD1.46-6.8615.2MOff
10 Jul 2026106.47 USD1.1%97.77 USD118.37 USD1.34-16.8413.8MOff
3 Jul 2026105.30 USD6.5%97.97 USD118.39 USD1.28-17.2014.8MOff
26 Jun 202698.91 USD0.7%98.11 USD118.37 USD1.22-22.4425.5MOff
19 Jun 202698.24 USD-2.4%98.45 USD118.39 USD1.07-27.3117.7MOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.

Evidence context