Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
PAYX options intelligence
Paychex Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
44
Market data through 4 Aug 2026
Checked 5 Aug 2026 11:13 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
PAYX currently carries bullish options pressure with a 44/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.
Expected move
6.7%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.03
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.21
Call-side skew
Trend fit
35
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+3.9%
RS -1.1
Expected move
6.7%
Put-call volume
0.21
Volume / OI
0.03
Reference IV
0.36
Max pain
110.00
Underlying
116.84
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
412
Research Brief
PAYX has a bullish chain read with 44/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 108.96–124.72; The largest call open-interest concentration is 125.00; the largest put concentration is 105.00. The most active strike by current volume is 125.00.
Priced range108.96–124.72
Call concentration125.00
Put concentration105.00
Max pain reference110.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 108.96 to 124.72. Max pain at 110.00 sits inside that range, 5.9% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
108.96116.84 ± 7.88124.72
Confirmation level
A close beyond 124.72 or below 108.96 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 44/100
Pressure is 68/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure68 × 42%
+28.6
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation4 × 22%
+0.8
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement35 × 26%
+9.1
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility52 × 10%
+5.2
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 125.00; the largest put concentration is 105.00. The most active strike by current volume is 125.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
55.00-52.9%
0
1
60.00-48.6%
0
6
75.00-35.8%
0
190
80.00-31.5%
2
41
85.00-27.3%
0
773
90.00-23.0%
0
140
95.00-18.7%
0
268
100.00-14.4%
3
785
105.00-10.1%
341
561
110.00-5.9%
590
238
115.00-1.6%
1429
292
120.002.7%
932
10
125.007.0%
1503
7
130.0011.3%
529
0
135.0015.5%
53
0
140.0019.8%
10
0
145.0024.1%
2
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$4.8MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak125.00+$1.3M
Negative peak95.00-$279,507
Nearest balance105.26Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
65.00-44.4%
-$454
70.00-40.1%
-$3,896
75.00-35.8%
-$14,359
80.00-31.5%
-$94,778
85.00-27.3%
-$40,972
90.00-23.0%
-$97,912
95.00-18.7%
-$279,507
100.00-14.4%
+$9,490
105.00-10.1%
-$23,831
110.00-5.9%
+$429,965
115.00-1.6%
+$1.2M
120.002.7%
+$723,741
125.007.0%
+$1.3M
130.0011.3%
+$759,417
135.0015.5%
+$295,051
140.0019.8%
+$539,900
145.0024.1%
+$13,439
150.0028.4%
+$21,389
155.0032.7%
+$25,783
160.0036.9%
+$6,401
165.0041.2%
+$678
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.36
21 Aug
17d
0.34
18 Sep
45d
0.35
18 Dec
136d
0.35
15 Jan
164d
0.33
19 Mar
227d
0.33
17 Jun
317d
0.32
21 Jan
535d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 4 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 412 / 412
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $336,295 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · otm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+68
1W price+3.9%
Call premium87%
Put premium13%
Notional split
C 87% / P 13%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.03
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
35/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 801 contracts traded, $116,405 estimated gross traded notional, and 35% of visible notional.
$116,405
Calls · 22-45 days · ATM
calls cluster with 118 contracts traded, $92,630 estimated gross traded notional, and 28% of visible notional.
$92,630
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 14 contracts traded, $30,255 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$30,255
Puts · 22-45 days · ATM
puts cluster with 46 contracts traded, $16,445 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$16,445
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 39 contracts traded, $14,075 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$14,075
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
5 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 5 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close116.84
1W+3.9%
RS-1.1
Fair value-1.3%
Options pressure68
Speculation4
Volatility52
Trend fit35
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:13
Bullish
Pressure 58
Move 8.0%
30 Jul 10:10
Bullish
Pressure 71
Move 9.2%
30 Jul 14:51
Bullish
Pressure 60
Move 6.5%
30 Jul 15:12
Bullish
Pressure 61
Move 6.5%
30 Jul 19:36
Bullish
Pressure 31
Move 6.8%
1 Aug 04:36
Bullish
Pressure 66
Move 6.8%
2 Aug 15:04
Bullish
Pressure 66
Move 6.6%
4 Aug 10:05
Mixed
Pressure 11
Move 6.5%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 6
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 190
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 41
Strike90.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 773
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.36
Put-call0.14
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts70
Avg IV0.34
Put-call0.57
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.35
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts70
Avg IV0.35
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts58
Avg IV0.33
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.33
Skew-0.02
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.34
Skew-0.03
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.33
Put IV0.37
Skew0.04
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.33
Put IV0.37
Skew0.04
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.29
Put IV0.37
Skew0.08
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractPAYX260821C00125000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike125.00
Volume554
OI1503
IV0.35
ContractPAYX260821C00130000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike130.00
Volume155
OI529
IV0.41
ContractPAYX260918C00115000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike115.00
Volume118
OI2097
IV0.34
ContractPAYX260821C00120000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike120.00
Volume89
OI932
IV0.36
ContractPAYX260821P00110000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike110.00
Volume52
OI561
IV0.36
ContractPAYX260821P00095000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike95.00
Volume50
OI140
IV0.39
ContractPAYX260918P00115000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike115.00
Volume46
OI498
IV0.33
ContractPAYX260918P00110000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike110.00
Volume40
OI500
IV0.34
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.