Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
PAYX options intelligence
Paychex Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
50
Market data through 21 Sep 2026
Checked 22 Sep 2026 13:46 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
PAYX currently carries bullish options pressure with a 50/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 7.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.07.
Expected move
7.8%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.07
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.36
Call-side skew
Trend fit
51
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+0.3%
RS -1.5
Expected move
7.8%
Put-call volume
0.36
Volume / OI
0.07
Reference IV
0.39
Max pain
120.00
Underlying
116.14
Nearest expiry
16 Oct 2026
Contracts
492
Research Brief
PAYX has a bullish chain read with 50/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 107.04–125.24; The largest call open-interest concentration is 125.00; the largest put concentration is 120.00. The most active strike by current volume is 135.00.
Priced range107.04–125.24
Call concentration125.00
Put concentration120.00
Max pain reference120.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 107.04 to 125.24. Max pain at 120.00 sits inside that range, 3.3% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
107.04116.14 ± 9.10125.24
Confirmation level
A close beyond 125.24 or below 107.04 at the 16 Oct expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 50/100
Pressure is 52/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure52 × 42%
+21.9
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation42 × 22%
+9.2
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement51 × 26%
+13.2
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility59 × 10%
+5.9
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 125.00; the largest put concentration is 120.00. The most active strike by current volume is 135.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
65.00-44.0%
0
15
85.00-26.8%
0
223
90.00-22.5%
0
11
95.00-18.2%
0
18
100.00-13.9%
3
99
105.00-9.6%
16
84
110.00-5.3%
12
191
115.00-1.0%
52
410
120.003.3%
618
148
125.007.6%
1480
8
130.0011.9%
481
2
135.0016.2%
95
0
140.0020.5%
34
0
145.0024.8%
9
0
150.0029.2%
27
0
155.0033.5%
40
0
160.0037.8%
15
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$2.2MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak125.00+$838,693
Negative peak95.00-$194,244
Nearest balance115.25Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
65.00-44.0%
-$1,037
70.00-39.7%
-$2,883
75.00-35.4%
-$2,457
80.00-31.1%
-$53,779
85.00-26.8%
-$13,298
90.00-22.5%
-$55,558
95.00-18.2%
-$194,244
100.00-13.9%
-$7,143
105.00-9.6%
-$36,615
110.00-5.3%
+$243,809
115.00-1.0%
-$11,043
120.003.3%
+$208,874
125.007.6%
+$838,693
130.0011.9%
+$460,593
135.0016.2%
+$253,664
140.0020.5%
+$461,935
145.0024.8%
+$43,612
150.0029.2%
+$71,852
155.0033.5%
+$6,806
160.0037.8%
+$7,020
165.0042.1%
+$1,343
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.39
16 Oct
25d
0.32
20 Nov
60d
0.31
18 Dec
88d
0.31
15 Jan
116d
0.30
19 Mar
179d
0.30
17 Jun
269d
0.30
17 Sep
361d
0.31
21 Jan
487d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 28 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 64% of the time.
Directional follow-through64%
Moves contained by pricing58%
Average expiry move4.7%
18 Sep
Bullish · 45
0.3% through expiry
1.0% priced · v2.0
16 Sep
Bullish · 54
0.3% through expiry
3.1% priced · v2.0
14 Sep
Bullish · 55
0.3% through expiry
4.0% priced · v2.0
11 Sep
Bullish · 42
-4.6% through expiry
4.5% priced · v2.0
10 Sep
Bullish · 46
-4.6% through expiry
4.9% priced · v2.0
9 Sep
Bullish · 48
-4.6% through expiry
5.2% priced · v2.0
8 Sep
Bullish · 37
-4.6% through expiry
4.4% priced · v2.0
4 Sep
Bullish · 37
-4.6% through expiry
4.4% priced · v2.0
3 Sep
Bullish · 36
-8.6% through expiry
4.7% priced · v2.0
1 Sep
Bearish · 46
-8.6% through expiry
4.7% priced · v2.0
28 Aug
Bullish · 45
-8.6% through expiry
5.1% priced · v2.0
26 Aug
Bullish · 49
-6.7% through expiry
5.7% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 21 Sep 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 492 / 492
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Call-side pressure is building before a meaningful weekly price response.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $1.2M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+52
1W price+0.3%
Call premium82%
Put premium18%
Notional split
C 82% / P 18%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.07
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
51/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
23 Sep
Matched earnings event is 0 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 178 contracts traded, $773,270 estimated gross traded notional, and 64% of visible notional.
$773,270
Puts · 22-45 days · ITM
puts cluster with 143 contracts traded, $107,560 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$107,560
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 323 contracts traded, $90,098 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$90,098
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 884 contracts traded, $58,340 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$58,340
Puts · 22-45 days · ATM
puts cluster with 108 contracts traded, $45,900 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$45,900
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Above normal
Activity is running above the recent historical baseline.
Baseline: 33 completed sessions
Volume rank73th
Volume/OI rank88th
IV rank79th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close116.14
1W+0.3%
RS-1.5
Fair value-2.3%
Options pressure52
Speculation42
Volatility59
Trend fit51
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 4.5% · 14 sessions
100th
90d avg 5.0% · 33 sessions
94th
180d avg - · 33/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.39 · 14 sessions
64th
90d avg 0.37 · 33 sessions
79th
180d avg - · 33/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.68 · 14 sessions
43th
90d avg 0.55 · 33 sessions
52th
180d avg - · 33/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.03 · 14 sessions
93th
90d avg 0.04 · 33 sessions
88th
180d avg - · 33/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
7 Aug 10:40
Bullish
Pressure 22
Move 7.0%
7 Aug 17:06
Bullish
Pressure 26
Move 6.4%
7 Aug 18:27
Bullish
Pressure 26
Move 6.5%
10 Aug 05:25
Mixed
Pressure -4
Move 5.1%
10 Aug 15:54
Bullish
Pressure 33
Move 4.8%
12 Aug 10:26
Bullish
Pressure 60
Move 4.3%
13 Aug 10:20
Bullish
Pressure 59
Move 3.7%
14 Aug 10:07
Bullish
Pressure 57
Move 5.6%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 3 · OI 15
Strike90.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 14 · OI 223
Strike95.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 0
Puts · V 5 · OI 11
Strike100.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 15 · OI 18
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.39
Put-call0.52
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.32
Put-call0.09
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.31
Put-call0.71
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts70
Avg IV0.31
Put-call0.09
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts58
Avg IV0.30
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.37
Skew-
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.38
Put IV0.33
Skew-0.05
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.30
Put IV0.35
Skew0.05
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.29
Put IV0.34
Skew0.05
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.27
Put IV0.34
Skew0.07
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractPAYX261016C00135000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike135.00
Volume507
OI95
IV0.41
ContractPAYX261120C00120000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike120.00
Volume190
OI85
IV0.29
ContractPAYX261016C00130000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike130.00
Volume175
OI481
IV0.36
ContractPAYX261016P00120000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike120.00
Volume139
OI410
IV0.39
ContractPAYX290119C00065000
SideCall
Expiry19 Jan 2029
Strike65.00
Volume132
OI-
IV0.01
ContractPAYX261016P00105000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike105.00
Volume123
OI99
IV0.39
ContractPAYX261016P00115000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike115.00
Volume108
OI191
IV0.37
ContractPAYX261120C00125000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike125.00
Volume81
OI4
IV0.29
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.