Company valuation ยท Technology

PAYX: Hold with a $121.64 price target

Paychex Inc. Quarterly sales are growing, but earnings forecasts have fallen.

Model target ยท USD
$121.64
For 2027-09-11
Model rating
Hold
Reviewed 2026-09-16
Reference weekly close
$115.80
2026-09-11 ยท USD
Editorial illustration of Paychex Inc, Software - Application.
Generated editorial illustration for Sharemaestro. It does not depict verified company premises or events.

Investment view

Quarterly sales are growing, but earnings forecasts have fallen.

Target and reference price

Target for 2027-09-11: $121.64 USD, +5.0% versus the $115.80 weekly close on 2026-09-11. Price return only; dividends, fees and tax excluded.

Price and earnings

Over 1 year (2025-09-12 to 2026-09-11), price changed -14.3% and trailing EPS changed +10.6%. A wider gap changes the earnings multiple; it does not establish fair value.

Supporting evidence

Revenue changed +12.4% from the same quarter last year, through 2026-05-31. The previous quarterโ€™s year-on-year change was +19.5%.

Over one year, the stock changed -14.3% against -30.7% for Technology (XLK). The gap is +16.4 percentage points. These are price returns, before dividends.

Risks to the case

The estimate for the period ending 2027-05-31 changed -0.1% over 30 days. Coverage is 19 analysts.

What to monitor

The latest quarterly margin changed +7.7 percentage points from a year earlier. Check sales volumes, pricing and unusual gains in the next filing.

Recheck the valuation gap alongside profitability and growth after new results. A discount alone does not establish value.

Compare the stock and the market fund over the same dates. Look for a change in relative performance as results arrive.

Valuation assumptions

Starting annual sales growth: 15%.

Long-term operating margin: 40.61%.

About this assessment

Review recorded on 2026-09-16. This is a dated summary of an automated company valuation. The full report includes the financial evidence, alternative scenarios and review history. Consult the latest report before using an earlier target. Automated model research, not personal investment advice. Targets depend on assumptions; returns are not guaranteed.

Evidence context