Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NYSE · Earnings Dossier
AEO earnings intelligence
American Eagle Outfitters IncConsumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Delivery strong, expectations demanding
Results have usually cleared estimates, but price has not consistently rewarded the delivery.
Evidence99/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Wednesday 2 September 2026
Time unconfirmed · Fiscal period ending 31 Jul 2026
76event risk
High
Countdown21 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate0.21 USDprovider consensus
Estimate growth-53.3%versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement12.8%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Earnings power is leading market price; the spread is widening and has persisted through 12 updates. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move22.7%2023-08-18 to 2026-08-07
Earnings move157.1%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread134.4 ptsWidening
Current multiple11.1xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure90/100Extreme
Model confidence87/100High
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Persistent earnings lead
Earnings power has led market price across several updates.
Business quality supportive
Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive.
Model qualification
The direction is sensitive to the comparison horizon.
Beat rate83.3%10 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise+17.1%median 14.2%
Delivery streak11 consecutive beats
Average response-2.6%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation25%same directional sign
Surprise variability44.5 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth42.5%year on year
Revenue growth6.2%year on year
Average surprise35.5%latest four quarters
SUE0.21standardised surprise
Net margin5.0%trailing basis
Cash conversion1.20xcash flow / net income
P/E10.7xcurrent snapshot
Data completeness100%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close17.97 USDcompleted week
13-week return7.7%price momentum
Fair-value gap3.0%price versus current fair value
Relative strength-15.3exchange benchmark
Trend signalInactiveweekly architecture
Next-week stateUndecided46.1%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period28 May 202630 Apr 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.14 / 0.11USD
Surprise+27.3%Beat
EPS growth+138.9%year on year
Revenue / growth1195285000+9.7% · USD
Next close / four weeks-4.4% / +6.9%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period4 Mar 202631 Jan 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.50 / 0.72USD
Surprise-30.6%Miss
EPS growth-7.4%year on year
Revenue / growth1760834000+9.7% · USD
Next close / four weeks-24.9% / -34.4%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period2 Dec 202531 Oct 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.53 / 0.44USD
Surprise+20.5%Beat
EPS growth+10.4%year on year
Revenue / growth1362701000+5.7% · USD
Next close / four weeks+13.2% / +29.2%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period3 Sep 202531 Jul 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.45 / 0.20USD
Surprise+125.0%Beat
EPS growth+15.4%year on year
Revenue / growth1283675000-0.6% · USD
Next close / four weeks+45.4% / +38.7%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period29 May 202530 Apr 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-0.36 / -0.22USD
Surprise-63.6%Miss
EPS growth-205.9%year on year
Revenue / growth1089599000-4.7% · USD
Next close / four weeks+2.4% / -8.9%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period12 Mar 202531 Jan 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.54 / 0.50USD
Surprise+8.0%Beat
EPS growth-11.5%year on year
Revenue / growth1604633000-4.4% · USD
Next close / four weeks-13.8% / -14.7%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period4 Dec 202431 Oct 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.48 / 0.46USD
Surprise+4.3%Beat
EPS growth-2.0%year on year
Revenue / growth1289094000-0.9% · USD
Next close / four weeks-6.5% / -14.4%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period29 Aug 202431 Jul 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.39 / 0.38USD
Surprise+2.6%Beat
EPS growth+56.0%year on year
Revenue / growth1291058000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-7.2% / -8.2%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period29 May 202430 Apr 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.34 / 0.28USD
Surprise+21.4%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth1143867000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-5.1% / -12.5%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period7 Mar 202431 Jan 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.61 / 0.50USD
Surprise+22.0%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth1678910000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-7.7% / +6.8%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period21 Nov 202331 Oct 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.49 / 0.48USD
Surprise+2.1%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth1301055000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-15.1% / +2.1%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period6 Sep 202331 Jul 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.25 / 0.15USD
Surprise+66.7%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks-7.9% / -4.3%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.