Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NASDAQ · Earnings Dossier
PEGA earnings intelligence
Pegasystems IncTechnology · Software - Application · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Delivery and acceptance aligned
Results have usually cleared estimates and the next completed weekly close has, on average, confirmed the delivery.
Evidence100/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Tuesday 20 October 2026
Time unconfirmed · Fiscal period ending 30 Sep 2026
68event risk
Elevated
Countdown68 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate0.48 USDprovider consensus
Estimate growth+60.0%versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement16.2%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Earnings power is leading market price; the spread is stable and has persisted through 12 updates. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move42.8%2023-08-18 to 2026-08-07
Earnings move117.9%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread75.1 ptsStable
Current multiple19.3xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure60/100Moderate
Model confidence65/100Moderate
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Persistent earnings lead
Earnings power has led market price across several updates.
Business quality supportive
Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive.
Starting-base sensitivity
The three-year earnings move begins from an unusually depressed level; compare the shorter horizons before relying on its scale.
Model qualification
The three-year starting earnings level was unusually depressed.
Model qualification
The direction is sensitive to the comparison horizon.
Beat rate83.3%10 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise+209.1%median 17.2%
Delivery streak22 consecutive misses
Average response+7.8%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation92%same directional sign
Surprise variability573.3 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth47.2%year on year
Revenue growth3.6%year on year
Average surprise-0.4%latest four quarters
SUE0.41standardised surprise
Net margin18.7%trailing basis
Cash conversion1.65xcash flow / net income
P/E16.6xcurrent snapshot
Data completeness100%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close32.74 USDcompleted week
13-week return-8.9%price momentum
Fair-value gap-16.3%price versus current fair value
Relative strength-39.1exchange benchmark
Trend signalInactiveweekly architecture
Next-week stateUndecided53.1%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period21 Jul 202630 Jun 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.18 / 0.23USD
Surprise-21.7%Miss
EPS growth-35.7%year on year
Revenue / growth420716000+9.4% · USD
Next close / four weeks-16.6% / -completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period21 Apr 202631 Mar 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.46 / 0.69USD
Surprise-33.3%Miss
EPS growth-40.3%year on year
Revenue / growth429973000-9.6% · USD
Next close / four weeks-14.4% / -22.8%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period10 Feb 202631 Dec 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.76 / 0.73USD
Surprise+3.5%Beat
EPS growth-52.8%year on year
Revenue / growth504317000+2.7% · USD
Next close / four weeks+9.3% / +17.7%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period21 Oct 202530 Sep 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.30 / 0.20USD
Surprise+50.0%Beat
EPS growth+50.0%year on year
Revenue / growth381350000+17.3% · USD
Next close / four weeks+24.1% / +6.5%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period22 Jul 202530 Jun 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.28 / 0.24USD
Surprise+16.7%Beat
EPS growth+7.7%year on year
Revenue / growth384512000+9.5% · USD
Next close / four weeks+12.7% / +0.9%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period22 Apr 202531 Mar 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.77 / 0.25USD
Surprise+208.0%Beat
EPS growth+220.8%year on year
Revenue / growth475633000+44.1% · USD
Next close / four weeks+34.2% / +44.8%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period12 Feb 202531 Dec 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.61 / 1.47USD
Surprise+9.5%Beat
EPS growth-9.0%year on year
Revenue / growth490830000+3.5% · USD
Next close / four weeks-19.4% / -28.0%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period23 Oct 202430 Sep 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.20 / 0.17USD
Surprise+17.6%Beat
EPS growth-9.1%year on year
Revenue / growth325050000-2.9% · USD
Next close / four weeks+9.3% / +18.2%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period24 Jul 202430 Jun 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.26 / 0.15USD
Surprise+73.3%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth351153000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+12.1% / +14.3%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period24 Apr 202431 Mar 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.24 / 0.22USD
Surprise+9.1%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth330147000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+7.3% / +9.1%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period14 Feb 202431 Dec 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.77 / 1.00USD
Surprise+77.0%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth474233000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+29.9% / +29.1%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period25 Oct 202330 Sep 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.22 / 0.01USD
Surprise+2100.0%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth334643000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+4.6% / +29.9%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.