Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NASDAQ · Earnings Dossier
PDD earnings intelligence
PDD Holdings Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Internet Retail · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Mixed earnings transmission
Delivery and market response do not currently form a persistent directional pattern.
Evidence99/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
Monday 24 August 2026
Time unconfirmed · Fiscal period ending 30 Jun 2026
84event risk
High
Countdown12 dayscalendar proximity
EPS estimate2.69 USDprovider consensus
Estimate growth-87.8%versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement13.3%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Earnings power is leading market price; the spread is stable and has persisted through 8 updates. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move19.2%2023-08-18 to 2026-08-07
Earnings move123.9%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread104.7 ptsStable
Current multiple1.3xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure74/100High
Model confidence92/100High
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Persistent earnings lead
Earnings power has led market price across several updates.
Beat rate66.7%8 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise+18.7%median 21.7%
Delivery streak22 consecutive misses
Average response-2.2%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation64%same directional sign
Surprise variability39.4 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth-2.4%year on year
Revenue growth9.3%year on year
Average surprise5.0%latest four quarters
SUE-0.03standardised surprise
Net margin22.0%trailing basis
Cash conversion1.11xcash flow / net income
P/E1.3xcurrent snapshot
Data completeness100%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close91.76 USDcompleted week
13-week return-7.1%price momentum
Fair-value gap-20.0%price versus current fair value
Relative strength-25.8exchange benchmark
Trend signalInactiveweekly architecture
Next-week stateUndecided52.9%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period27 May 202631 Mar 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate9.51 / 16.37USD
Surprise-41.9%Miss
EPS growth-16.7%year on year
Revenue / growth105586519000+10.4% · USD
Next close / four weeks-10.7% / -15.8%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period25 Mar 202631 Dec 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate17.69 / 20.71USD
Surprise-14.6%Miss
EPS growth-12.2%year on year
Revenue / growth122201949000+10.5% · USD
Next close / four weeks+3.8% / +8.9%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period18 Nov 202530 Sep 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate21.08 / 16.57USD
Surprise+27.2%Beat
EPS growth+13.4%year on year
Revenue / growth108276512000+9.0% · USD
Next close / four weeks-13.5% / -14.5%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period25 Aug 202530 Jun 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate22.07 / 14.80USD
Surprise+49.1%Beat
EPS growth-5.0%year on year
Revenue / growth103984832000+7.1% · USD
Next close / four weeks-5.4% / +1.9%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period27 May 202531 Mar 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate11.41 / 18.96USD
Surprise-39.8%Miss
EPS growth-44.9%year on year
Revenue / growth95672175000+10.2% · USD
Next close / four weeks-19.1% / -15.1%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period20 Mar 202531 Dec 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate20.15 / 19.67USD
Surprise+2.4%Beat
EPS growth+16.3%year on year
Revenue / growth110610106000+27.4% · USD
Next close / four weeks+3.3% / -26.1%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period21 Nov 202430 Sep 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate18.59 / 19.67USD
Surprise-5.5%Miss
EPS growth+60.1%year on year
Revenue / growth99354401000+44.3% · USD
Next close / four weeks-12.2% / -10.3%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period26 Aug 202430 Jun 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate23.24 / 20.02USD
Surprise+16.1%Beat
EPS growth+122.0%year on year
Revenue / growth97059531000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-31.3% / -28.6%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period22 May 202431 Mar 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate20.72 / 10.38USD
Surprise+99.6%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth86812059000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+7.8% / +1.9%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period20 Mar 202431 Dec 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate17.32 / 11.45USD
Surprise+51.3%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth86812059000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-0.6% / -6.7%completed weekly closes
ReadContainedresult versus price sign
Reported / period28 Nov 202330 Sep 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate11.61 / 8.39USD
Surprise+38.4%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth68840371000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+22.4% / +21.7%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period29 Aug 202330 Jun 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate10.47 / 7.36USD
Surprise+42.3%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+29.3% / +20.0%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.