Move decomposition
Earnings contribution and valuation offset
The market move is separated into the change in trailing earnings power and the offset from relative valuation.
US Equity · NYSE · Earnings Dossier
DINO earnings intelligence
HF Sinclair CorpEnergy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · USD reporting basis
Current earnings profile
Delivery strong, expectations demanding
Results have usually cleared estimates, but price has not consistently rewarded the delivery.
Evidence99/100 · Deep
Next scheduled catalyst
No forward date is currently stored
The historical dossier remains available while the next calendar date is unconfirmed.
0event risk
Inactive
Countdown-calendar proximity
EPS estimate-provider consensus
Estimate growth-versus comparable year-ago actual
Historical movement7.0%average absolute next weekly close
Three-year earnings transmission
Delivered earnings power versus market price
Market price is leading earnings power; the spread is widening and has persisted through 11 updates. Both series begin at 100, so the gap isolates the relative change in price and trailing earnings power.
Market move83.7%2023-08-25 to 2026-08-14
Earnings move-20.7%trailing diluted EPS
Unresolved spread-104.3 ptsWidening
Current multiple9.7xprice divided by TTM EPS
Relationship pressure80/100High
Model confidence92/100High
Relationship controls
What qualifies the headline spread
Fundamental fracture
Earnings have weakened while price has not adjusted to the same degree.
Model qualification
The direction is sensitive to the comparison horizon.
Beat rate91.7%11 beats in 12 measured quarters
Average surprise-822.4%median 20.9%
Delivery streak66 consecutive beats
Average response-0.6%12 measured reactions
Result-price confirmation50%same directional sign
Surprise variability2857.9 ptspopulation dispersion
Estimate delivery
Actual EPS versus consensus
Actual and estimated EPS are displayed in reported currency on the same quarterly basis.
Price acceptance
Surprise and next weekly close
The response uses the first completed weekly close after the public report against the prior completed weekly close.
Fundamental delivery
Quarterly revenue and net income
Reported financial statements provide scale and earnings quality context around the headline EPS result.
Transmission matrix
Does price confirm delivery?
Upper right and lower left observations confirm the sign of delivery. The other quadrants expose expectation or resilience effects.
Current business context
Growth, quality and valuation
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue growth16.3%year on year
Average surprise70.6%latest four quarters
SUE0.90standardised surprise
Net margin6.1%trailing basis
Cash conversion1.70xcash flow / net income
P/E8.7xcurrent snapshot
Data completeness93%alphavantage
Market context
Positioning into the event
Weekly close93.67 USDcompleted week
13-week return33.8%price momentum
Fair-value gap92.1%price versus current fair value
Relative strength41.1exchange benchmark
Trend signalActiveweekly architecture
Next-week stateUndecided51.7%
Market context describes the setup surrounding the report. It does not convert the earnings event into a directional forecast.
Reported evidence ledger
Quarter-by-quarter delivery and acceptance
Each row preserves the reported estimate, public date, statement context and conservative weekly reaction measurement.
Reported / periodEPS actual / estimateSurpriseEPS growthRevenue / growthNext close / four weeksRead
Reported / period28 Jul 202630 Jun 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate5.31 / 4.39USD
Surprise+21.0%Beat
EPS growth+212.4%year on year
Revenue / growth10390000000+53.2% · USD
Next close / four weeks+3.6% / -completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period1 May 202631 Mar 2026 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.69 / -0.05USD
Surprise+14.1%Beat
EPS growth+355.6%year on year
Revenue / growth7123000000+11.8% · USD
Next close / four weeks+20.2% / +16.8%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period18 Feb 202631 Dec 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.20 / 0.44USD
Surprise+172.7%Beat
EPS growth+217.6%year on year
Revenue / growth6464000000-0.6% · USD
Next close / four weeks-13.1% / -3.9%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period30 Oct 202530 Sep 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate2.44 / 1.86USD
Surprise+31.2%Beat
EPS growth+378.4%year on year
Revenue / growth7251000000+0.6% · USD
Next close / four weeks-5.4% / -2.6%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period31 Jul 202530 Jun 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate1.70 / 1.08USD
Surprise+57.4%Beat
EPS growth+117.9%year on year
Revenue / growth6784000000-13.5% · USD
Next close / four weeks-1.9% / +13.4%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period1 May 202531 Mar 2025 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-0.27 / -0.41USD
Surprise+34.1%Beat
EPS growth-138.0%year on year
Revenue / growth6370000000-9.4% · USD
Next close / four weeks+4.9% / +18.2%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period20 Feb 202531 Dec 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate-1.02 / 0.01USD
Surprise-10300.0%Miss
EPS growth-217.2%year on year
Revenue / growth6499884000-15.1% · USD
Next close / four weeks-4.5% / -13.5%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period31 Oct 202430 Sep 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.51 / 0.33USD
Surprise+54.5%Beat
EPS growth-87.4%year on year
Revenue / growth7207140000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-10.0% / -0.3%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period1 Aug 202430 Jun 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.78 / 0.71USD
Surprise+9.9%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth7845831000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-7.6% / -2.2%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period8 May 202431 Mar 2024 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.71 / 0.67USD
Surprise+6.0%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth7027145000- · USD
Next close / four weeks+4.1% / +2.4%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reported / period21 Feb 202431 Dec 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate0.87 / 0.72USD
Surprise+20.8%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth7660136000- · USD
Next close / four weeks-3.0% / -0.4%completed weekly closes
ReadDivergedresult versus price sign
Reported / period2 Nov 202330 Sep 2023 · exact
EPS actual / estimate4.06 / 3.70USD
Surprise+9.7%Beat
EPS growth-year on year
Revenue / growth-- · USD
Next close / four weeks+5.4% / +2.3%completed weekly closes
ReadConfirmedresult versus price sign
Reproducible method
How the earnings dossier is measured
Reported diluted EPS is compared with the stored estimate for the same fiscal period. Moves within ±0.5% are classified as in-line.
The first completed weekly close after the public date is compared with the prior completed weekly close. Four-week response uses the first close at least 21 days later.
Risk combines proximity, average absolute price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and timing certainty. It does not score direction.
Exact public dates are used when stored. Missing estimates, timing and statement fields remain missing. No result or reaction is filled from a future observation.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, forecast, target or execution instruction.